By how much do you think Trump will win Waukesha County in 2020

[Scottholes 2.0]

Do you guys think many of the 3rd party "Never Trump" Republicans will come home for Trump, or will they vote for the Democratic candidate?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Around 60%, one of the few areas where I see him improving from 2016. This is generally why WI is more likely to stick with Trump than PA or MI.

We'll see.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Isn't WOW one of the few areas in the country where 3rd party voters in 2016 went R in 2018?

Certainly looks that way in the governor's race — Walker improved on Trump's margins in all three counties. But Walker was always their boy, so who knows. Relative to 2014, even he suffered significant attrition, with Waukesha and Ozaukee trending away. How much of that was the national suburban swing vs. Walker-fatigue? Tough to say.

Yeah, I think Ozaukee County is certainly trending D, as Evers cracked 40% in Mequon, Cedarburg, and Port Washington. Plus, Ozaukee borders Bayside, a very wealthy Democratic suburb in Milwaukee County. Waukesha County is a mystery, but I guess maybe the white flight old-timers are dying out and getting replaced with my progressive-minded voters? We'll see, but Waukesha County is truly a drag on the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. A part of me wishes it didn't exist.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Thanks for the answers, guys.

I looked at the past election results for Waukesha County, and was kind of startled by what I saw.

In 2012 in Waukesha County, Romney received 162,798 votes compared to Trump's 142,543 votes. Obama received 78,779 votes while Clinton received 79,224 votes, meaning Waukesha County only trended towards Democrats by less than 500 votes while more than 15k voted third party. I just can't see Trump getting Romney's raw votes in Waukesha County. If his raw vote share remains the same or increases to, like, 145k (I doubt he'd do better than Walker's 146k votes) and the third party voters come home for either Trump or the generic D, then wouldn't Democrats would most likely get between 90k to 95k votes in Waukesha County? If so, that would be unprecedented for Waukesha County, and I just can't see how he wins Wisconsin without getting Romney numbers in Waukesha County.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I think it will be interesting to see if the Democratic nominee does better in the city of Waukesha vs the more rural areas. Waukesha has a few democratic precincts, so we will see if those move bluer or not. For my money though, I think Ozaukee might start divorcing itself from the rest of WOW.

Ozaukee is starting to vote like the Democratic North Shore suburbs of Milwaukee County, but it will take years for it to fully transition.

[Scottholes 2.0]

61-35.

In my opinion, just doubt there will be that many 3rd party voters in the next election. I'd venture to guess around 38% to 40% for Democrats in Waukesha County while Trump gets between 58% to 60%.

[Scottholes 2.0]

64-35

Seems kinda high to me.

[Scottholes 2.0]

If we’re assuming that rural Wisconsin is going to continue to trend Republican, I think it’s reasonable to assume that Waukesha is trending Democratic. Vukmir, despite being an awful candidate, was supposed to be a “good fit” for Waukesha, and still won by just 23, less than Trump did in 2016. Walker won by more than Trump, but significantly less than in his previous victories. I think that, factoring in third-party voting, 60-37 would be about my guess.

I agree.