Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

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Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

Do you keep deleting your previous posts when you put a new one on this thread?

Yes. I don't want people to think I'm insane for making duplicate posts, but I suppose I'll just edit my comment next time I share an update about this election.

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Obama is ENDORSING Tony Evers. Woot! Woot!

https://madison365.com/former-president-barack-obama-endorses-tony-evers-and-mandela-barnes/

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A new MU law poll will be released this Wednesday at 12:15 p.m. I'm honestly too nervous to make a prediction because the MU law poll really messed up in August. I was a skeptic last time too and ended up with a positive result. What do you guys think? Will Evers or Walker lead or be tied?

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I hope you all are right and Evers is still continuing his streak against Walker. I'm more curious about the current mood of WI voters with regard to Kavanaugh's confirmation because this will be a question asked on this week's MU law poll.

And yeah, Hofoid will say this race is getting closer if Evers is leading by less than 5 points this time.

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They're going to have polled right in the middle of the Kavanaugh bump for the GOP. So I'm guessing Walker +2.

You're kidding, right? As much of a skeptic as I can be when it comes to Walker, even I acknowledge that there's not way the next MU law poll will have him leading by 2 points after Evers was leading by 5 in its last poll.

I'm glad to see you're back!

[Scottholes 2.0]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

Why do you assume the WOW counties will vote for Walker at the same margins they did in the last three elections? He will undoubtedly win them, but seeing that college educated voters are increasingly shifting away from the GOP here in WI (according to the latest MU polls) and nationwide, It would not surprise me if Walker gets less than 65 percent of the vote in WOW this time. I cannot wait until the next MU poll tomorrow. I can't wait to see your reaction if Evers leads by MORE than 5 this time!

[Scottholes 2.0]

How the heck can Walker survive reelection if Baldwin is consistantly leading Vukmir by a pretty wide margin? WI can't possibly have that many ticketsplitters - not my very polarized state!

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Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

[Scottholes 2.0]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

Agreed.

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As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.

May I ask what you are talking about? Walker is still polling poorly. Evers recently led Walker by 10 points in a recent poll. TEN! I don't understand why you think the race is in Walker's favor and Evers is campaigning bad. Yesterday was ONE poll. Walker has never trailed this badly in polls before. Walker hasn't even managed to get more than a 4-point lead in a poll this cycle and has only led in two polls. Walker led in overrall polls in his last three elections, yet won by only 5 points in all three.  I'm glad you're canvassing (like I am) because Evers could benefit from that, but Evers is doing a lot better than Mary Burke in the polls. How do you know rural WI isn't going to go to Evers? I see plently of Tony Evers signs in rural areas of WI. I travel across the state every week for conference meetings. Maybe geography hasn't been too kind for you?

I used to think Evers was not favored, but he's doing pretty darn good to be running against Walker, and I've seen many people mobilized about Evers across the state. Good luck with your canvassing. I commend you for that! Enjoy this bipolar weather in our state!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Brutal ad against Walker:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1051896117850505221

We've tried to get this man out of office THREE TIMES. Enough is enough! Walker, please go away like Ryan is doing!

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According to DQ Desktop, this is what an Evers 4-point win would look like:

They also project that Baldwin will win by 12 points:

That would be a heck of a lot of ticketsplitters, which I sincerely doubt! Also, I'd flip St. Croix instead of Marathon county.

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I can't wait until the next MU Law poll!

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I can't wait until the next MU Law poll!

Their polling it again already? I'd rather see polling from a new firm.

Yes, on October 31st, so less than 2 weeks from now. MU makes me nervous and is overrated by Atlas users imo. They seem to be an R interneral for Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Trump is coming Mosinee for Leah Vukmir. So far no word if Walker will be in attendance.

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1052667181304094720

Oh dear.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Just because PPP decided to pull the plug on the poll for the governor's race, doesn't mean Walker still has a chance. Please stop.

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Tony Evers thinks we should ignore the polls. That's going to be tough to do, especially after the last MU poll.

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1052985315743416321

[Scottholes 2.0]

Trump will be coming to Wisconson next week to rally with Walker and Vukmir. Will that help or hurt Walker?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Scott Walker is now accusing Tony Evers of plagiarism: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-hits-tony-evers-over-plagiarized-material-in-budget/article_c2d4d2ea-b65a-563e-960b-977a9342634a.html

The man is doing everything he can to win. He doesn't know how to campaign on his own merits because he doesn't have any.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Ok. So, apparently Trump will be rallying with Vukmir, but Walker may not be present because Trump's aides thinks he should avoid Walker due to his low reelection prospects.

https://www.wisconsingazette.com/news/political/trump-to-stump-for-vukmir-but-not-walker/article_3d80296e-d3d3-11e8-8950-3fa6398e0682.html

AND Obama is coming to Milwaukee on Oct. 26. Can't wait to see him!

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Debate between Tony Evers and Scott Walker is live NOW: https://wxow.com/news/breaking-news/2018/10/19/watch-8-p-m-wisconsin-governor-debate/

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evers doing a good job!

Walker is lying like crazy already!

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I guess there really are lots of Walker-Baldwin voters afrer all. This article explains why the governor's race between Walker and Evers is so close compared to the U.S. Senate race between Baldwin and Vukmir: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/with-wisconsin-voters-split-on-governor-tammy-baldwin-enjoys-commanding/article_dbd4b577-1e00-5f47-947f-f7fef3692e17.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Come on, Wisconsin! PLEASE get rid of Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Russia is trying to F wit Tammy:

https://twitter.com/tammybaldwin/status/1053652825635479552

Not again!

[Scottholes 2.0]

I guess there really are lots of Walker-Baldwin voters afrer all. This article explains why the governor's race between Walker and Evers is so close compared to the U.S. Senate race between Baldwin and Vukmir: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/with-wisconsin-voters-split-on-governor-tammy-baldwin-enjoys-commanding/article_dbd4b577-1e00-5f47-947f-f7fef3692e17.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Come on, Wisconsin! PLEASE get rid of Walker.

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Sigh. Just like I've said. I'm still so upset that Vinehout didn't win; We'd be seeing a very different race. But no use crying over spilt milk.

I'm very worried that this extremely polarized state under Walker and Trump might split tickets to relect both Baldwin and Walker. However, I don't think Vinhout would have done any better than Evers. I will say that at least this race is not as close as, say, Ohio or Nevada (538 has us as Lean D, whereas those races are considered tossups). If Evers continues his lead in the polls up until Election Day, I am fairly certain Evers may ride Baldwin's coattails in this extremely polarized state under Walker and Trump. If the next MU poll(10/31) or any other poll show Walker leading (which I won't be surprised if it will), then that's when I'll be even more concerned.