Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

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I gotta say, Evers is doing really well in the polls this election season, A LOT better than Mary Burke did when she was running against Walker. Walker has literally only led in ONE poll so far. I just hope Evers continues to slaughter him as polling becomes more important, like in October. He's going to win this race if he polls like this in October. Heck, if he continues to beat Walker in the polls in a month from now, this race should be consiered lean D.

Come on, Evers. You've got this!

And why does Cook Political still have this race as lean R yet has Baldwin's race as likely D when Walker's much more vulnerable than Baldwin?

Im glad that youve got the enthusiasm about the race back! This race is definitely gonna be a top D pickup, and Walker is definitely on the ropes.

And about the Cook Political thing, they still rate the OK governorship solid R, and moved OR to lean D after a Gravis poll. This is why no one on Atlas really trusts the pundits.

Interesting! I don't really trust them pundits either. I suspect they'll move it to the toss-up category soon, though.

Anyway, I can't wait for more polls to come out!

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Mike Pence endorses Vukmir and will help Vukmir campaign.


https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/08/28/mike-pence-headline-leah-vukmir-fundraiser-u-s-senate-race/1122244002/

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Rain has started again, and it's been going for hours. Many areas near the lakes will be forced to evacuate soon.

And heavy rain in other areas, too. La Crosse county saw 11 inches today, the Baraboo River in Sauk County is set to rise 10 ft!!! by Thursday/Friday due to all the rain, Green County is also now seeing flooding, and there are more storms yet to come. It's terrifying and I hope people can stay safe.

Yeah, Western and South Central WI are getting pummeled.

Unlike in Dane County, Walker heroics here will boost his reelection odds in this swing region.

Stop it already! You couldn't be more wrong. Most people are aware his 1-hour visit in Madison was merely a photo-op! Just because you want Walker to win so badly, doesn't mean he will.

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Walker gaining on Evers (who is below 50) in PPP poll. Looks like he has momentum.

I believed you for a moment until I looked up the PPP poll, which showed that Evers is STILL leading by the same margin (49-45) as last month's poll. No offense, but did your math teacher fail you or something? As I told you before, Walker led by less than 50 percent in most polls during his 2014 reelection campaign, yet STILL won by more than 50 percent. Why do you continue to lie? Just curious.

Evers is doing well in comparison to Walker's previous opponents, but my question is will WI voters be smart this time and fall for Walker's campaign lines? All I know is that Walker is trying his hardest to deter voters from voting for Evers with his incessant allegations against Evers regarding his refusal to revoke a teacher's license due to pornography distribution. Will voters fall for this lie Walker keeps spouting (despite the fact that Evers had minimal authority over teacher licensure revocations at time), especially since that's all he's got against Evers? I really cannot stand Walker and can't take another 4 years of him. He is a liar who keeps painting himself as an "education governor" (will voters fall for that lie, too?) despite the fact that he's diverted funding from public schools and the UW System more than any other WI governor. He is very dishonest and needs to go!

Honestly, Evers will win if he continues to lead the way he is in the polls, but that is if voters don't fall for Walker's lies for the FOURTH time. In short, it's becoming more and more likely that Evers will win,  but I give it another month of polls/data before my confidence is maxed out!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Why does the Hill think Tammy Baldwin is vulnerable? This is news!

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406085-trumps-plan-to-help-eliminate-federal-debt-was-to-print-money

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Cook Political FINALLY rates Wisconsin a toss-up. Wisconsin needs more polls, though. I feel like there's been fewer polls this election cycle.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings

Also, the Koch network is spending $1.3 million on Scott Walker's campaign.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/406675-koch-network-pumps-13-million-to-boost-walker-in-wisconsin

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The MU Law poll for Wisconsin is coming out tommorrow. I honestly won't be surprised if it has Walker or Vukmir leading.

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll?lang=en

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The MU Law poll for Wisconsin is coming out tommorrow. I honestly won't be surprised if it has Walker or Vukmir leading.

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll?lang=en

You are absolutely right, about the WI poll, that they might have Walker leading. Somehow, the ratings were leading to something when they had FL as tossup and WI as LR due to the immigration issue and Gillum is exceeding expectations, and Walker is likeable

Yeah, MU disappointed me last time, and they likely will again.

I'm curious about one thing, though: If Baldwin is safe, how the heck is it possible that Wisconsin can reelect Walker at the same time? Baldwin is one of the most far-left U.S. senators, and Scott Walker is far-right. My state doesn't split tickets these days (i.e. Walker-Johnson in 2010, Obama-Baldwin 2012, Trump-Johnson 2016), so I'm interested in knowing how this race will end. Are there a lot of Walker-Baldwin voters?

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How do we know that the MU numbers will be favorable to Republicans? Did they drop a "hint" or something? And yeah, voting for Baldwin and Walker doesn't make sense, but that doesn't mean that a decent percentage of voters won't do it. Probably not 10-15% or anything like that, but I could see 6-7% doing so, which could be enough for Walker to survive if Baldwin wins by less than expected.

Like I said, it's going to have Walker leading. Mark my words!

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Prediction:
Baldwin +7 ("GOLD STANDARD shows Baldwin leading.")

Walker + 3 and everyone decides Marquette is no longer the Gold Standard until they show results they want.

What I don't understand is why every other poll has shown Evers leading, while every Marquette poll  in this cycle has indicated Walker either leading or tied with Evers. Vukmir was the closest she'd ever been to Baldwin on the last Marquette poll. The Marquette poll obviously skews Republican.

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WOW - I was wrong!

Let's hope the GOP doesn't purge Democrats from voter rolls, gerrymandered, closed polling stations in D areas, and suppress the vote due to unusual voter ID laws. They can’t win fairly so they’ve protected themselves via fraud. Let's hope they don't steal the election. Again. Remember, Hillary was leading in the final Marquette poll.

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Walker is launching more attack ads against Evers, this time accusing him of not firing a teacher for having a physical altercation with a student.

http://www.therepublic.com/2018/09/20/wi-election-2018-governor-wisconsin-6/

[Scottholes 2.0]

Above is my prediction map for the gubernatorial race. I predict that Walker will win Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties by less than 70 percent unlike last time because of the latest poll showing that he's trailing among the college-educated. Washington County will most likely vote for Walker by 70 percent.

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Walker's recent tweet about the Marquette poll:

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I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

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I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

Likely where I'm headed too, if not Vancouver

I studied abroad in Vancouver for a month back in undergrad school. I really liked Granville Island. It has a good variety of pubs, restaurants, and bakeries which encapsculate the charm of the area

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I don't know, but how many Baldwin-Walker voters exist? The number of split ticket voters is getting smaller. I would argue that is especially true here in Wisconsin where Walker has been polarizing in Wisconsin for years. It is also hard to think of a specific issue where Tammy Baldwin and Scott Walker are the same on which would give a clear reason for people to vote for both. I personally feel like Baldwin is going down if Evers does. It's just hard to envision, but like you said we'll see in Nov! Here's a good article on how voters could split tickets to reelect Walker and Baldwin: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/09/10/even-polarized-partisan-wisconsin-swing-voters-still-exist/1223275002/

If Evers continues to lead like this from this point onward, I believe he's got this race in the bag! Walker is no Tommy Thompson!

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Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!

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Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!

Pre-October surprise. This is good news for him.

Why?

Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!

Pre-October surprise. This is good news for him.

No its not. Walker is done

Let's hope he's done! This election makes me almost as nervous as it did in 2014. 42 days cannot come sooner!

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My biggest fear is that Walker will come up with another election ploy to delude voters all over again, then one of the final polls show him leading. I hope that doesn't happen!

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.

Obviously it depends on what the situation is in 2020, and who the dems nominate, but yeah, I can't see this state moving further right if Evers wins, considering that he'll almost certainly relax the voter ID administrative laws. And if the Dems were to, by some miracle, win back the Assembly and Senate, then 'Katy, bar the door' - the post 2010 election laws will be gone by February.

I think WI dems have a VERY good chance of winning the WI Senate considering they're only two seats away. I reckon they'll win the state Senate, but the WI State Assembly is very gerrymandered and GOP-controlled - I doubt Dems will take that legislative chamber back this fall, but maybe in 2020.

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I will start this thread off by saying that Walker's 2012 reelection has made me a pessimist about any election in this state, and 2016 didn't help. You will see me on Atlas panicking for the next 40 days. There are days on which I'm hopeful Walker will lose, then there are days I'm not - it depends. And if Walker wins, people on Atlas will remember me for my Atlas tantrums. If not, I guess I won't be seen as paranoid Nancy.

Anyway, carry on....

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What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

Nope. Stevens Point, La Crosse, Eau Claire, etc.

[Scottholes 2.0]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

Thanks for enlightening Hofoid, Virginia! I don't know why they want Wisconsin to be as red as Mississippi so bad.

[Scottholes 2.0]

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Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

Walker is calling for his resignation.

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1044995252040470529

Yet Walker has no issue supporting someone like Trump......

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https://www.wpr.org/walker-fundraising-outpacing-evers-6-weeks-out-election-day

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Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.