Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm guessing there won't be another WI poll released? I'm asking because Emerson isn't the greatest and that was their last poll.

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

For those of you who have hofoid on ignore, here are some of the early vote numbers as they compare to 2016. The WOW counties are about where you'd expect them to be, other than Washington looking a bit low. Dane County is smidge lower than I would like, but Madison is already at 4x where they were it was at in 2014 and I don't doubt that turnout will be big there tomorrow. To me the main story is Milwaukee County being compareable to Waukesha County. Milwaukee County dropoffs from Presidential elections to off year elections are well documented, if this holds into tomorrow, that could change and be crucial

Hofoid is simply ridiculous. I somehow just noticed the ignore option yesterday. I'm expecting near presidential-level turnout for Dane. Milwaukee County is my top concern.

But God, I am so nervous about tommorow's election! I am hoping and praying that 8 years of Wississippi will actually over. I've watched my unionized family members suffer long enough under Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

[Scottholes 2.0]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

If the polling has been accurate, Evers will most likely do remarkably well among college-educated white women, so there may not be too much of a contrast between Evers and Baldwin's performance in that regard.

[Scottholes 2.0]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

Seriously? Wow!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Tammy Baldwin has just been declared the winner.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I hope WI doesn't become another upset like Florida.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Milwaukee and Dane County have gotten bluer since 2014. In Milwaukee County, Burke received 188k votes, whereas in Dane Burke received 175k. Also, Burke received 54k votes in Waukesha County compared to Evers' 66k.

[Scottholes 2.0]

UGH! I want this whole darn night to be over. This is a nightmare!

Did he win or what?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Rebecca Kleefisch said there may be a recount.

[Scottholes 2.0]

WOW! Is this even real?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Is a recount still possible? That's my biggest fear.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Dane County supported Burke for governor with 175k votes (at 70 percent). The fact that Evers won more raw votes than Hillary in Dane SHOWS that WI will remain a very purple state as long as Dane continues to grow and trend D!

Also, Baldwin got more votes than Hillary in Ozaukee County and Waukesha County, and Evers received 16k more votes than Burke in Waukesha County when she ran for governor in 2014. The WI GOP should be worried!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Ugh! Walker is refusing to concede, alleging that many ballots were damaged! I really hope he doesn't be able to pull this one off!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Guys, I wouldn't call this official just yet. Scott Walker is demanding a recount, and he might just slither his way through this.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Guys, I wouldn't call this official just yet. Scott Walker is demanding a recount, and he might just slither his way through this.

He can't actually request this until next week at the earliest, after all counties certify the results. If it's more than a 1% margin, Walker is SOL.

I believe he can still request it, he would just have to pay for it out of his own (koch bros) pockets.

Ugh! I'm trying not to be a pessimist, but the WI GOP stole the 2011 Supreme Court Election after finding missing ballots or something. If Koch money gets involved in a recount, we should be a little cautious.

Otherwise, welcome, Governor Tony Evers!

[Scottholes 2.0]

"Counties have to start the vote canvass by Tuesday and have until Nov. 20 to report the totals to the state, which then has until Dec. 3 to certify the results."

https://dailyreporter.com/2018/11/07/election-results-suggest-tony-evers-narrowly-defeats-gov-walker/

[Scottholes 2.0]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

[Scottholes 2.0]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

I kept telling Hofoid that the GOP margins in the WOW counties were going to go down post-Trump, but he just flat-out denied it!

[Scottholes 2.0]

In addition to Dane and the WOW counties swinging towards Evers, Rock County swung towards him as well. Does anybody know why that is?

[Scottholes 2.0]

This is RIDICULOUS! This could cause uninformed voters to turn on Evers by the end of his first term: https://www.channel3000.com/news/evers-wants-to-do-stuff-as-governor-but-it-will-be-tough-1/857407919

Does anyone know if Grethen Whitmer in Michigan is going through the same thing with her Republican lesiglature???

[Scottholes 2.0]

So, according to this article, Senate Majority Scott Fitzgerald said he's not going to commit to Evers' $1.4 billion education budget proposal.

https://badgerherald.com/opinion/2018/11/13/longevity-of-evers-education-appointments-investments-depend-on-assembly-bipartisanship/

Good luck to Tony Evers trying to move WI foward.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Apparently Evers called former moderate Republican governor Tommy Thompson to counsel him. I say, good move! https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/11/14/governor-elect-evers-seeks-bipartisan-counsel-from.html