NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up

[Conan]

Fortunately for Lance and Whitman (hell, who are we kidding—fortunately for Lance), Stender's negatives are already high thanks to Mike Ferguson launching $3,000,000 worth of poison her way in 2006.

This may be true, but high negatives don't appear to be an obstacle for Democrats seeking office in N.J., and she did extremely well in '06 even with that.

High Dem negatives should prove a problem in historically Republican NJ-07.  I do know that Lance's internal polling has him ahead of Stender by double digits (Whitman is ahead by single digits), and since Lance is not well known throughout the eastern part of the district, one can only assume that he does well on the basis of Stender's negatives and a simple GOP vote advantage here.

Are her negatives higher than her positives?

I remember reading somewhere that Stender trailed by 20 points before September. It seems that she didn't close to within single digits till after the Mark Foley fiasco.

Oh please...like that had anything to do with why Linda Stender from NJ did well.

About the polls, I doubt Whitman is ahead at all. Most people wouldn't even know who she is. The only way she would be ahead is if someone read a brief biographical statement.

Also, it took Ferguson $3 mill in 2006 to fend off someone with less money and name ID. The district is trending democratic and Bush's victory margin in 2004 was I believe 4 points.

[Conan]

What about the fact that Stender is outraising the Republicans combined?

Well, you also should perhaps note that Stender has not outraised all the Republicans combined, if you also include Mike Ferguson's $1 million plus.  She's had a heck of a lot more time to get money (since Nov. 2006) compared to Whitman and Lance.

About the polls, I doubt Whitman is ahead at all. Most people wouldn't even know who she is. The only way she would be ahead is if someone read a brief biographical statement.

Or it simply goes to show what a basically Republican district this is.

Or, you know, maybe people just correctly associated this person with a last name of Whitman with someone else with the last name of Whitman.

(I'm not sure why it'd pay to fudge the numbers on behalf of Whitman—it wasn't even Whitman's campaign who did the poll.)

But no, you're probably right: Polls are generally wrong when you'd prefer them to be based on your own partisan ideology.  Safe Stender!

Absolutely not.  You're first statement is fundementally misguided. For that to be true, you'd have to assume that people first and foremost identify themselves as republicans and follow politics nonstop. Plus, the district isn't that republican..we've already been over this.  If you want to discuss polls, which we don't even know exist, then provide the polling company and such. It's not enough to take the word of an alleged untalented former political reporter.

My stance was that after one election, Stender is more known in the district than Christie Whitman's daughter. Basically, the poll isn't worth anything anyway. The Lance poll is a different case. 

[Conan]

But no, you're probably right: Polls are generally wrong when you'd prefer them to be based on your own partisan ideology.  Safe Stender!

Yeah, because you're such a source of unbiased information on New Jersey elections.

...

He was an actual political reporter and certainly not a partisan hack. What's on your resume?

I am a political reporter too and I happen to think that NJ-7 is a toss up like all other political reporters and national pundits. He has consistent views that these are GOP locks.

[Conan]

I am a political reporter too

Your Xanga does not count.

Isn't that that myspace like website people stopped using 5 years ago?
I'm just as much as a political reporter as Mr. Moderate.

[Conan]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.

Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.

If I recall correctly, Torricelli, now a lobbyist, likes to use that money to further enhance his lobbying....He has more than 2,000,000.

Saxton has over 1,000,000
Ferguson only has a little over 200k left.

Stender currently has 15x the amount Lance has. I personally don't believe he will be a good enough fundraiser, as he hasn't shown it yet. The NRCC doesn't have any money....there are, in my opinion, better districts to spend their money in, ones with incumbents or more republican ones. Lance must raise at least $1 million to remain on par between now and election day.

I have to disagree with your assesment that he should win, though. As we always go through this, it's about a 50/50 district, and it's an open seat. Stender has 15x the cash. Combined with the DCCC's $1.8 mill reserved, she has 37.5x his money. Money matters in such a marginal district where she came within a point of winning against a strong incumbent.

[Conan]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.

Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.

If I recall correctly, Torricelli, now a lobbyist, likes to use that money to further enhance his lobbying....He has more than 2,000,000.

Saxton has over 1,000,000
Ferguson only has a little over 200k left.

Stender currently has 15x the amount Lance has. I personally don't believe he will be a good enough fundraiser, as he hasn't shown it yet. The NRCC doesn't have any money....there are, in my opinion, better districts to spend their money in, ones with incumbents or more republican ones. Lance must raise at least $1 million to remain on par between now and election day.

I have to disagree with your assesment that he should win, though. As we always go through this, it's about a 50/50 district, and it's an open seat. Stender has 15x the cash. Combined with the DCCC's $1.8 mill reserved, she has 37.5x his money. Money matters in such a marginal district where she came within a point of winning against a strong incumbent.