Candidates may have something to do with it, but the inner dynamics of NM-01 and NM-02 are very different than the Nevada districts.
Also, in 2006, don't underestimate the helpful impact of Hafen being a Mormon in a highly Mormon area (comparison to US). Harry Reid wouldn't still be a Senator without that factoid.
IMHO, NV-03 is highly likely to be under both New Mexico districts in terms of competitiveness come 2008.
Maybe he wouldnt have been elected in the first place, but your assumption that he still wouldnt be a senator has only minimal grounds.
