NJ-07: Mike Ferguson (R) will not seek re-election

[Conan]

This is going to be a particularly exciting year in NJ. Even though I would like to have the democrats win the open seats, the GOP can use these seats to rebrand itself. Kean, Lance, and Allen are all good candidates.

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/quick-glance-some-numbers-7th-14127

http://politickernj.com/linda-stenders-statement-mike-fergusons-retirement-14126

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http://politickernj.com/lance-says-hell-consider-running-congress-14125

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http://politickernj.com/millionaire-caspersen-mulls-bid-ferguson-seat-14122

Just go here for all the news, there's a trove:
http://politickernj.com/

[Conan]

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will decide tomorrow morning whether to run and...

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http://politickernj.com/bramnick-its-hard-pass-opportunity-14115

[Conan]

Good news for the GOP.

As surprising as this is, it's easy to see why, Ferguson has just figured it's not worth it to go through tough reelection battles he simply isn't set out to fight in order to be an insignificant and unimportant member of the minority party.

Depending on who the republicans nominate, this is actually better for the GOP's chances to hold onto the seat.

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/kean-wont-run-congress-bramnick-emerging-leading-candidate-ferguson-seat-14140

Good news for the dems and probably the dumbest move ever by Kean.

[Conan]

Good news for the GOP.

As surprising as this is, it's easy to see why, Ferguson has just figured it's not worth it to go through tough reelection battles he simply isn't set out to fight in order to be an insignificant and unimportant member of the minority party.

Depending on who the republicans nominate, this is actually better for the GOP's chances to hold onto the seat.

Stu Rothenberg agrees with me,

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http://politickernj.com/rothenberg-another-headache-republicans-14146

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/kean-wont-run-congress-bramnick-emerging-leading-candidate-ferguson-seat-14140

Good news for the dems and probably the dumbest move ever by Kean.

I can't blame Kean.  This would be a step down for him—a consolation prize after losing a statewide race.

Bramnick is a great candidate.  Very charismatic and widely considered a "rising star."  (And this is a much more reasonable jump than running for U.S. Senate.)  Still, I'd much rather see Leonard Lance in the Congress.  It'd set up a very interesting primary race (a la 2000) with geographically regionalized candidates.

I also like Lance. He deserves it more than Bramnick.

[Conan]

Franks is apparently not ruling out a run.

"My phone has been ringing incessantly. My Blackberry has filled up with emails,” Franks told PolitickerNJ.com. “I don't have anything to say at this moment, and I will be talking to some friends."

And yes, there is universal consensus that Republicans might have a better chance to hold the seat now that Ferguson's out of the picture, provided they don't screw the primary up.

Why do you proclaim universal concensus? Did you call up some old contacts from your political reporting days?

[Conan]

Oh, thank goodness—Mike Doherty will not be a candidate for the seat.

Hunterdon Freeholder Matt Holt, grandson of former U.S. Senator Clifford Case, is mulling a bid, according to PolitickerNJ.

He better not taint Rush Holt's name!

Anyway, either Lance or one of these rich guys would be strong candidates. Frankly, Stender can't buy the seat but one of these rich guys can so it will be interesting to see where that goes.

[Conan]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You should go back and read the margins. Do you not think the dem will get more than 47% for president this time around?

[Conan]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You should go back and read the margins. Do you not think the dem will get more than 47% for president this time around?

I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will win New Jersey by the same 56–40 margin that Al Gore did.  Similarly, I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will run better than Al Gore did in NJ-07.

Which, as I will repeat, he lost under the current lines according to the Rutgers Legislative Data Book.

You keep mentioning Al Gore. However, who you should be focusing on is John Kerry who underperformed in NJ and still got 47% here IIRC. Unless Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, and I believe Mitt Romney will be, than Hillary Clinton is going to do much better than Kerry did. Usually that means she'll do better in all the districts that Kerry did.  You don't seem to grasp the concept that these districts aren't around 50/50 or even unsafe for republicans.

[Conan]

You keep mentioning Al Gore. However, who you should be focusing on is John Kerry who underperformed in NJ and still got 47% here IIRC. Unless Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, and I believe Mitt Romney will be, than Hillary Clinton is going to do much better than Kerry did. Usually that means she'll do better in all the districts that Kerry did.  You don't seem to grasp the concept that these districts aren't around 50/50 or even unsafe for republicans.

John Kerry lost the district by over 6 points while winning the state by over 6 points.

Again, this is a district that Doug Forrester carried twice (easily), Tom Kean Jr. carried, Bob Franks carried, and George Bush carried (twice).  I don't know if Bob Dole carried it (I'd assume not, though he probably would have without Perot on the ballot).

Republicans outnumber Democrats here in registration, no Democrat has carried the district in a very long time, the GOP Presidential nominee is likely to either carry the district or come very close, blah blah blah.  Nothing there convinces me that this is a "Lean Democratic Takeover" district.

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

[Conan]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

[Conan]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

Tom Kean and Lance are first tier. The rest really aren't. However, Lance is a quality candidate but not as safe as Kean would have been. If Lance is candidate then this is a toss up....anyone else then this is lean Stender.

[Conan]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

I have nothing against him, but he may face a tough battle against anyone representing more than the 3% of the district's population that lives in Scotch Plains. At least he's a mayor and not a random freeholder or town councilman.

A freeholder actually represents more territory.  But yes, Marty Marks is not an especially strong candidate for the seat and will have a heck of a time distinguishing himself as anything more than "the dude from Union County."

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

Tom Kean and Lance are first tier. The rest really aren't. However, Lance is a quality candidate but not as safe as Kean would have been. If Lance is candidate then this is a toss up....anyone else then this is lean Stender.

I'd also guess that if self-funder Mennen runs and somehow winds up being the nominee, then the race would be a toss-up.  (With Lance, I'd put it at a slight lean to GOP hold.)

If it's someone like Marks v. Stender, then yeah, Linda's got the obvious edge.

Lance can obviously win but I am justifying my prediction off of him being from Hunterdon...Stender didn't do so great there last year so she doesnt have much to lose, but with Lance being from Hunterdon, now Stender has a greater Union edge. Lance has never really had to work for an election if I am not mistaken.