NJ 2009

[Conan]

Leiter isn't running for anything.

[Conan]

Fmr. Mets Pitcher Al Leiter - Nope

Morris County Freeholder John Murphy - Likely

Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan - Likely

St. Sen. Tom Kean Jr. - Nope, although he is expected to be Senate Minority Leader in the upcoming legislature.

Washington Twp. Councilman Bob Schroeder - Maybe

St. Sen. Bill Baroni - Look for him to challenge Menendez in 2012

US Atty Christopher Christie - Presumptive Nominee

Fmr. Mayor Bret Schundler - No

Perpetual Loser Doug Forrester - No

Fmr. Gov. Christie Whitman - No

Rep. Mike Ferguson - No

Rep. Jim Saxton - No

Fmr. Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano - Dark Horse

If Corzine retires, Codey will be the nominee and he will win easily. If he does not retire, he will be in a competitive race but likely win it by about 5%

Corzine - 54
Christie - 44/45

[Conan]

Guy Gregg should run. He used to be the republican darling of the right until he lost the GOP primary for state senate because he wasn't from Sussex.

[Conan]

Most of Bergen doesn't care about Encap. It didn't start under his watch anyway. Leiter ruled out running I believe.

[Conan]

Given it's DWTL predicting a Republican win, I'm inclined to predict that Corzine gets reelected in a landslide.

I advise you to educate yourself on the race because that would be a blindly stupid prediction

For a New Jersey politician, Corzine has approval ratings in the stratosphere. No way he loses reelection.

Also, Lonegan and Schroeder (ignoring Leiter)? Forgive me, but your man-crushes are not in and of themselves likely nominees. A Councilman running for Governor? That would truly be the end of the NJ GOP.

I never said they had a good chance, just that they would run, something both did in 2005 and I expect them to repeat.  Leiter will most likely run for something eventually as he has hinted he would like to.  Murphy or Christie could win this race, people don't look to the future as the disaster of EnCap will most likely cost Corzine Bergen County which could cause him to lose the election.

Rutherford and southwest Bergen County is one thing; he also stepped in on behalf of Weinberg against the BCDO, which greatly improved his standing in central and southeast Bergen County. Hardly anyone outside of southwest Bergen County has even heard of EnCap.

In a close race, this pivotal swing area could provide the amount of votes to make or break his reelection

The election is not going to come down to five hundred angry people in Rutherford. It won't even be within the margin of the entire population of the Meadowlands region all together.

The Meadowlands itself (actually Rutherford is not the angriest town) is a large populous of people who certainly cannot be discounted

He can spare 100,000 votes.

[Conan]

Given it's DWTL predicting a Republican win, I'm inclined to predict that Corzine gets reelected in a landslide.

I advise you to educate yourself on the race because that would be a blindly stupid prediction

... says the kid who predicted a Tom Kean victory as late into the Senate race as October 2006.

To be fair, that wasn't blindly stupid. His loss wasn't that big.

Actually, it was very stupid. However, I believe DWTL realized he wasn't going to win by late Sept.

[Conan]

Given it's DWTL predicting a Republican win, I'm inclined to predict that Corzine gets reelected in a landslide.

I advise you to educate yourself on the race because that would be a blindly stupid prediction

... says the kid who predicted a Tom Kean victory as late into the Senate race as October 2006.

To be fair, that wasn't blindly stupid. His loss wasn't that big.

Actually, it was very stupid.

Excellent argument as always.

Look at your argument before you idiot.

[Conan]

Given it's DWTL predicting a Republican win, I'm inclined to predict that Corzine gets reelected in a landslide.

I advise you to educate yourself on the race because that would be a blindly stupid prediction

... says the kid who predicted a Tom Kean victory as late into the Senate race as October 2006.

To be fair, that wasn't blindly stupid. His loss wasn't that big.

Actually, it was very stupid. However, I believe DWTL realized he wasn't going to win by late Sept.

While I certainly doubt Kean was favored to win at any time post-Foley, the possibility of him turning it around was still there.  It certainly was within the realm of possibility, at least in the same sense that it was possible for Ford to win.

This race and Kean losing had nothing to do with Foley. Kean was a horrible debater and a serial flip flopper. It was a wave year in a democratic state where republicans can only get at most 47% of the vote. IIRC, his poll leads never really got outside of the margin of error either and the leads always shifted back and forth between them with Kean doing great in August and early Sept.

[Conan]

Given it's DWTL predicting a Republican win, I'm inclined to predict that Corzine gets reelected in a landslide.

I advise you to educate yourself on the race because that would be a blindly stupid prediction

... says the kid who predicted a Tom Kean victory as late into the Senate race as October 2006.

To be fair, that wasn't blindly stupid. His loss wasn't that big.

Actually, it was very stupid.

Excellent argument as always.

Look at your argument before you idiot.

My argument before - Kean's loss wasn't that big...and it wasn't.

That's not an argument. And his loss was bigger than it should have been. An 8 point loss by a moderate republican with a respected, entrenched name against an "incumbent" that's under federal criminal investigation who is from Hudson county and is the first minority to hold statewide office.

[Conan]

Conan makes a good argument.  If it were Codey or Andrews, Kean Jr. would have got blown out BADLY.  This is not a race we should have had to worry about but somehow did.  Hell I even think Frank Pallone would have had double digits.

What you just said had nothing to do with what Conan said or what we are arguing about. Nothing.

The point - Kean didn't lose that badly so predicting that he'd win isn't that much of a bad call.

No one who lives in NJ would ever think that Kean was going to win.  After becoming familiar with him as a candidate, it was just impossible. He's not ready for primetime.

[Conan]

Conan makes a good argument.  If it were Codey or Andrews, Kean Jr. would have got blown out BADLY.  This is not a race we should have had to worry about but somehow did.  Hell I even think Frank Pallone would have had double digits.

What you just said had nothing to do with what Conan said or what we are arguing about. Nothing.

The point - Kean didn't lose that badly so predicting that he'd win isn't that much of a bad call.

No one who lives in NJ would ever think that Kean was going to win. 

Your reasoning is amazing.

I don't have to provide reasoning for everything so some dolt like yourself can have a little bit of understanding.

[Conan]

Conan makes a good argument.  If it were Codey or Andrews, Kean Jr. would have got blown out BADLY.  This is not a race we should have had to worry about but somehow did.  Hell I even think Frank Pallone would have had double digits.

What you just said had nothing to do with what Conan said or what we are arguing about. Nothing.

The point - Kean didn't lose that badly so predicting that he'd win isn't that much of a bad call.

No one who lives in NJ would ever think that Kean was going to win.  After becoming familiar with him as a candidate, it was just impossible. He's not ready for primetime.

It was very possible, and indeed, for part of the campaign, it seemed more likely than not.  It almost doesn't matter how "ready for primetime" Kean is.  In New Jersey, people don't watch Senatorial debates.  They vote based on campaign commercials and prior political leanings.

Certainly, Wally Edge pinned Kean's loss on the national mood post-Foley.  (cue: lol but BODINE)

And, thank you, I spent a good chunk of time in 2006 working in New Jersey to cover the damn race.  But feel free to clutch to your notions that (1) polls always favor Republicans always always in September but get accurate in October always always and (2) New Jersey will never elect a Republican to anything ever ever never elect ever again ever ever.

Especially when there are a whole ****load of states more Republican than New Jersey that do.

Wally Edge didn't blame Foley for his loss. The suggestion itself is simply ridiculous in and of itself. You are getting a little ridiculous yourself in that last paragraph. Nowehre did I suggest both (1) and (2) that you listed. I think Republicans have a great chance at winning races in 2012 for senate and 2013 for governor. It is hard to believe that you ever did work covering this race as your suggestions are so ludicrous. Now you should go read 1 out of every 4 things Wally Edge posts because sometimes he posts stuff that is completely out of whack and is called out for it in the comments section of his posts. Now please provide some evidence suggesting that Foley was the source of his loss. Maybe a poll asking if Foley helped persuade some people. As you should know, but don't, democrats consistently underpoll in NJ and it would be far off if Menendez was behind Kean at sometime, at least theoretically according to polls, because of constant news of him being under federal criminal investigation. He was never out of the margin of error. And if you did report on this election, you certainly are the most incompetent reporter ever.

[Conan]

Conan makes a good argument.  If it were Codey or Andrews, Kean Jr. would have got blown out BADLY.  This is not a race we should have had to worry about but somehow did.  Hell I even think Frank Pallone would have had double digits.

What you just said had nothing to do with what Conan said or what we are arguing about. Nothing.

The point - Kean didn't lose that badly so predicting that he'd win isn't that much of a bad call.

No one who lives in NJ would ever think that Kean was going to win. 

Your reasoning is amazing.

I don't have to provide reasoning for everything so some dolt like yourself can have a little bit of understanding.

Except you know that you don't have any reasoning and you are constantly owned. Run along, child.

Hahah. You hack, do you have any civility? Anytime there is a chance not to mock you when you post something that makes sense or has evidence to back you up, I respond in a civil manner. Fact is, I am not owned by anyone as no one has successfully repudiated any post of mine where I have made serious comments pertaining to a subject. Again, you don't know how old I am but you are certainly the most irresponsible and child like poster here. DWDL makes more sense than you do. And for a conservative republican, you certainly sound really effeminate and bitchy.

[Conan]

Conan makes a good argument.  If it were Codey or Andrews, Kean Jr. would have got blown out BADLY.  This is not a race we should have had to worry about but somehow did.  Hell I even think Frank Pallone would have had double digits.

What you just said had nothing to do with what Conan said or what we are arguing about. Nothing.

The point - Kean didn't lose that badly so predicting that he'd win isn't that much of a bad call.

No one who lives in NJ would ever think that Kean was going to win. 

Your reasoning is amazing.

I don't have to provide reasoning for everything so some dolt like yourself can have a little bit of understanding.

Except you know that you don't have any reasoning and you are constantly owned. Run along, child.

Hahah. You hack, do you have any civility? Anytime there is a chance not to mock you when you post something that makes sense or has evidence to back you up, I respond in a civil manner. Fact is, I am not owned by anyone as no one has successfully repudiated any post of mine where I have made serious comments pertaining to a subject. Again, you don't know how old I am but you are certainly the most irresponsible and child like poster here. DWDL makes more sense than you do. And for a conservative republican, you certainly sound really effeminate and bitchy.

I don't have civility yet you are the one that called me a dolt, effeminate and bitchy and you respond to respectable members like Mr. Moderate with nonsense like "You are one of the worst reporters ever!". Yet I'm the one acting like the child?

You are constantly owned in arguments so just give it up

OOps! You caught me! That was after the fact, smarty. The only reason you call him respectable is because of his attack on me a few posts ago and you say what I said was nonsense. Well it happens to be if you're a political reporter and haven't realized that Keans chance at winning was minimal, then you aren't such a great reporter.  You're the one who resorts to acting like a child. People are treated by me on how they treat others. Now, if you'd like to end this nonsense of personal attacks and smart ass comments, I'd love to do it if you'd agree to it. All one would have to do afterwards is notify the other of their behavior and put an end to it. Now would you like to act like an adult now?

[Conan]

And if you did report on this election, you certainly are the most incompetent reporter ever.

Now that the argument is getting personal and largely pointless, I think I'll bow out of it, thanks.

Look at your argument a few posts ago your righteousness.

[Conan]

OOps! You caught me! That was after the fact, smarty. The only reason you call him respectable is because of his attack on me a few posts ago and you say what I said was nonsense. Well it happens to be if you're a political reporter and haven't realized that Keans chance at winning was minimal, then you aren't such a great reporter.  You're the one who resorts to acting like a child. People are treated by me on how they treat others. Now, if you'd like to end this nonsense of personal attacks and smart ass comments, I'd love to do it if you'd agree to it. All one would have to do afterwards is notify the other of their behavior and put an end to it. Now would you like to act like an adult now?

I respect Mr. Moderate because he knows what he's talking about (I actually read his posts and they aren't filled with partisan attacks) and he's respectable. You aren't.

You just made the argument that Kean's chance at winning was minimal...when a few posts ago you said there was no chance. Which is it, Conan? You're confusing us and, most importantly, yourself.

I don't need to start acting like an adult. I've been doing so for awhile. I'm not the one who called someone bitchy and effeminate (which is rather sexist on your part but that's another story).

Don't take yourself too seriously. Minimal/no chance... semantics. You really do need to start acting like an adult so that you can get friends at home instead of through an online political forum.  You are a joke. Now, since you would not like to take a part in my conciliatory offer, I will appreciate it if you don't make any more smart remarks towards me and others, and that I will not engage in any little games you play from here on forward. If you have a question or problem with any of my posts, please ask for further explanation in a way that is not demeaning nor childlike. Your response to this message will show what kind of person you'd like to be, a respectful adult or an antagonist child. You will not see any more childish remarks from me from now on.

[Conan]

Don't take yourself too seriously. Minimal/no chance... semantics.

No, those two are fundamentally different things.
 

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Now I don't have friends off the forum! Wow! When does your insanity stop?
Again, you tell me to act like an adult and then say I don't have real life friends? Are you serious, kid?

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So you can throw your last cheap shots and then expect me to remain silent? I'll believe that you are going to stop your childish remarks when I see it.

Well, the first one, no they are not fundamentally different. The end result is still the same. I am not going to address the second part as it is low. Are you serious, kid? is one of those smart cute little remarks that is quite juvenile and again you don't know how old I am so it's quite irrelevent. Since this response isn't that bad, I will consider this progress. This is now settled. I should expect no more childish remarks from you if you are as you say you are, a respectable member who acts like an adult. My comments towards you from here on are in an adult like manner only if you wish to do so yourself. Thank you.

[Conan]

Don't take yourself too seriously. Minimal/no chance... semantics.

No, those two are fundamentally different things.
 

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Now I don't have friends off the forum! Wow! When does your insanity stop?
Again, you tell me to act like an adult and then say I don't have real life friends? Are you serious, kid?

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So you can throw your last cheap shots and then expect me to remain silent? I'll believe that you are going to stop your childish remarks when I see it.

Well, the first one, no they are not fundamentally different. The end result is still the same.

Do you have any idea what you're saying? The end result?


Saying someone has no chance, as you did, means there is no chance of them winning.

Saying someone has a minimal chance means that they have a chance but it is small.

Understand now?

I guess you still want to act childish. You see, where I come from, there is no difference between saying, "yea like he has a chance (no chance)" and "they have little chance at all". It is semantics. If you want to go on about it go ahead because the thing is what I meant is basically the same thing. So would you now like to start some civility? It's a yes or no question. It really would be best for everyone. I've asked three times and you still seem bent on acting like a child.

[Conan]

Some comments on a Corzine v Christie race on Pol NJ:

Ha ha ha ha ha ha!
FormerlyAnonymous

Christie is a one-term freeholder who got beaten in a re-election primary!
After the first election, he was sued and settled a libel or slander suit (forget which) from his opponents -- so he won by telling lies about his opponents.
He raised $100,000 for Bush and still didn't get the US Attorney job until he and his brother ponied up another half million. He had to buy his current job.
You look at his crying jab when Stu Rabner didn't get the hero worship Christie wanted to see -- imagine what will happen on the campaign trail! Christie is a failed politician who had to buy his job and doesn't have the sense of proportion needed to run for office.
He may get the nomination, but only because the Republicans don't have anyone else. He won't win, though.

08/14/07 7:55 am History has a way of repeating itself
Mountaintop

Chris's claim to fame is losing by 20 points to Mike Carroll in the 1995 primary. I would suspect that in 2009 his pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase stands won't go over any better in a primary than in 1995.
Taxes are the issue, not corruption.  That is clear everywhere but the country club where our Republican leaders spend their time and talk to "average" voters.

08/14/07 8:18 am Corzine
SJBlue

This will really be no contest. Corzine wins by another 10 points.

08/14/07 8:27 am Bill Brennan
DinoPCrocetti

Hey Bill, I figured that you would at least like him better than Steve Lonegan who you're so obsessed with hating.
I like Christie but Steve Lonegan is my first choice.

08/14/07 8:30 am Doesn't look good for the GOP
PoliticsSJ

The GOP will probably offer either a country club Republican who doesn't relate to the common voter or some wacko "revolutionary" who talks incessantly about taxes, is a one trick pony, has zero populist appeal, can't raise money and will not get the message out. The GOP has tried it both ways, and can't win. We need a new approach.

08/14/07 9:02 am Christie v. Corzine
MartinOne

One can see why the GOP, after multiple failures in senate campaigns and gubernatorial ones, would see Christie as an attractive option; lately, I've had trouble discerning when he is acting as a U.S. attorney versus when he is acting as a future political candidate (Kyrillos interview, Republican candidate forums, questionable subpoena timings).
That said, though many Ds and Rs see otherwise, I'm not sure Christie is even running in 2009, and I agree that Corzine would win by the same margin as he defeated Forrester.

08/14/07 9:06 am Ain't gonna happen but here's my 2 cents...
ShoreGuy_MC

I can see why a very unpopular Governor is so far behind a very popular U.S. Attorney. However, the very things that are making him popular as a federal appointee will make it difficult for him to ever become a statewide elected official in NJ. Right now both state party establishments loath him (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in the eye of the unaffiliated voter…but they do not have the consistent participation in elections as the party-faithful do). Plus, these hints of "moderation" on social issues may lead to more populist conservatives looking elsewhere for their party’s standard bearer. As I see it now, Christie will likely not make it through the primary. So, this hypothetical general election match up is…well…hypothetical and nothing more.

08/14/07 11:01 am Draft Steve Forbes!
Republican Conscience

Steve Forbes should run this state. If he could make time run for President, he could run for Governor. He could afford the pay-cut and actually knows how to run things for a profit.

08/14/07 12:41 pm Christie needs to do something other than indict politicians
Nero

How about a contrast to Corzine. He should do what the federal government has failed to do -- round up illegal aliens and send them back. Corzine set up this bogus immigration group who will recomend embracing these law breakers (surprise). While most of us wouldn't be here if were not for LEGAL immigration, illegal aliens have no business being here and should be sent packing. If Christie showed some leadership on this issue and rounded these folks up and sent them back, this would go a long way with voters.

08/14/07 1:35 pm Too late
ononuk

Christie is an attractive candidate, but (like many others) he has already peaked. We expect so much of him now that someone new will appear,  go from 0% in December, 2008 to 20% in April, 2009, and the press will be salivating over him. Christie's moment was two years ago. By 2009 he will be old news.

[Conan]

Some comments on a Corzine v Christie race on Pol NJ:
[etc, etc]

You do realize these comments have the same validity on the race as me typing something on this website?  I could go there right now and type in that Christie would win by 25 points

I don't see your point. There was no agenda attached to that. It was just relevent to this thread.

[Conan]

If the NJ Republicans waste Murphy on this unwinnable election, they're not going to get anywhere.  They need to save him for something he can win.  Sure he's probably our best shot at beating Corzine, but he's still got no chance.  He might be a good candidate, but we need more than that to overcome the Democrats' strength.

Exactly. Republicans should save good candidates that they have a shot at: US Senate 2012 and Gov 2013.

[Conan]

Some comments on a Corzine v Christie race on Pol NJ:
[etc, etc]

You do realize these comments have the same validity on the race as me typing something on this website?  I could go there right now and type in that Christie would win by 25 points

I don't see your point. There was no agenda attached to that. It was just relevent to this thread.

Those comments have no bearing on what is actually going on and represent such a small and bias faction of NJ voters (something like .0000000000000000000001%)

What's your point though? What did everyone not know already?