Lary Sabato: Top Senate targets for 2008

[Conan]

Wow... Larry Sabato came up with a list of seats anyone on here could have last december when Johnson had his malfunction.

[Conan]

Please elaborate Jersey and Montana. IMO, Baucus is (as of right now) in no danger whatsoever.

New Jersey will be a close race because it always is, this is not to say by any stretch I believe the Republicans will win, however, like always they will get there hopes up about the race and it will be competitive, something like a 52-47.

In Montana, I still believe Racicot will jump into this race and make it competitive.  Otherwise, cross it off the map.

I wouldn't say last year's election was close at 53-45 but I may be wrong here. Anyway, the last close senate election was 2000 which was 51-47. You're also not going to get a close election here on a presidential year, with the current environment, and no serious GOP senate candidates.

Lautenberg: 58
Doherty: 40

Lautenberg: 55
Estrabrook: 43

Lautenberg: 55
Pennacchio: 42

[Conan]

I think you are being a bit optimistic in New Hampshire and Colorado. Sure, both the Democatic challengers have a narrow advantage, but to call the Lean Dem is too optimistic. In New hampshire, Shaheen hasn't decided to run yet, and Sununu leads his other opponents. In Colorado, it is a real swing state, and I doubt the margins for either candidate will be greater than 5%. Likewise, Hagel hasn't laid out his plans yet, and Bruning could very well win. Feel free to criticize me, but I was just giving my opinion.

NH is def. lean dem right now.