I’d just like to remind everyone freaking out of one more thing:
Even IF we were to assume that Iowa is in fact gone for Dems, that it will continue to trend if not swing right, and even IF we were to assume that this is indicative of polling being off in the more critical midwest/rust belt states again and IF we assume that means they are very close again... That does not mean Trump will end up on the winning side of them all again. Biden only needs a swing of LESS THAN A POINT in three states from 2016 to win. Iowa is not among them. ALL indications are he is going to get that and then some. And that’s without even getting into his leads and competitiveness in sun belt states that Hillary never had, states which have effectively no correlation to midwest/rust belt states. It would be real funny if the polls do indeed turn out to have overestimated Biden’s strength with rural Northern whites, only to have ALSO underestimated his strength with Hispanics in Texas or something so he easily wins anyway. That would still be a possibility and we won’t know until it happens or doesn’t. But overall, the VAST majority of polls are still looking real good for Biden right now.
And also IA's correlation to the MIWIPA trio is overrated as hell.
Iowa voted 9+ points to the right of all three of those states in 2016, and also had a much weaker showing for Democrats in 2018 than the MIWIPA trio in which the only close statewide race was the WI Governor race which the Democrats won.
