Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[ON Progressive]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

Remember when Young Kim was a Strong Candidate that would surely win by double digits?

[ON Progressive]

Glad Porter won. Not because of anything to do with her but because Mimi Walters had one of the most insufferable attitudes about her district voting for Clinton being a fluke of any of the Clinton seat Republicans

Yeah. I have a particular strong dislike of her, and that’s no small part of why.

[ON Progressive]

Katie Hobbs’ lead at 5918. Not sure what county updated but it doesn’t look like Pima or Maricopa

Apache.

[ON Progressive]

Bye, Young!

Someone should show this to Charlie Kirk.

[ON Progressive]

What is CA-45 at? California SOS is slow

Porter leads big

[ON Progressive]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

[ON Progressive]

Of the six victorious Democratic House challengers in California, three of them are already outperforming Clinton's winning margin while two more (Porter and Hill) look likely to do so as well once all the votes are counted. As it stands:

CA-10: Harder +3. (Clinton +2)
CA-25: Hill +6. (Clinton +7)
CA-39: Cisneros +1. (Clinton +9)
CA-45: Porter +3. (Clinton +4)
CA-48: Rouda +6 (Clinton +2)
CA-49: Levin +11. (Clinton +7)

Rouda and Levin are obviously the biggest overperformers. And Cisneros is clearly the weakest link, but I doubt he'll have trouble going forward as the area continues its bluening.

I remember being told by Tea Party Hater and socaldem that Dems were doomed in these House races because Republicans led in the partisan registration though.

[ON Progressive]

Wasserman just called CA-39 for "weak candidate" Cisneros.

Weak Candidate™ Gil Cisneros defeating Unbeatable Titan™ Young Kim? Impossible! Coastal Elitist, socaldem, and Jeppe told me Young Kim was certain to win!

[ON Progressive]

Is it bad that I audibly gasped at that?

How much is still out in CA-21?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064675938322010113

[ON Progressive]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

Remember when Solid had this seat at Safe R? LMAO.

[ON Progressive]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

[ON Progressive]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

Jeppe thinks that Emily Cain was a stronger candidate than Jared Golden.

Jeppe always assumes the woman is the better candidate by default, which is ridiculous. Granted, a lot of Atlas believes the exact opposite, which is just as ridiculous.

[ON Progressive]

Kim was hyped because Republicans (and some others) thought that her being Asian-American would allow her to automatically over perform with the demographic by enough to win big. Oddly enough Republicans rail against identity politics yet were relying on it to retain CA-39 for them.

Republicans only complain about “identity politics” if they aren’t doing it.

[ON Progressive]

[ON Progressive]

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11920.msg264844#msg264844

^^ how times have changed since 2004, it gonna be extremely hard to the republicans to win back the house in the near future,
Nothing is certain in politics..

lol, the party that controls every branch of government except the House is suddenly "incapable to win a national election". Sure.

I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well for the party that's gloating about their inevitable triumph.

Exactly. To me, the #1 rule of American elections is that the pendulum always swings back. It's absurd to call either party "dead" or "incapable of winning an election" because it always ends up being completely wrong within 2 years of the person's claiming it anyhow.