Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 214436 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: November 07, 2018, 10:39:56 AM »
Quote from: Badger on November 07, 2018, 10:36:21 AM
So as an aside, after everyone predicted that brown would utterly demolishes opponent, he gained less than half a percentage point in the popular vote from his 2012 win over Josh Mandel. What a letdown.

I think it’s pretty clear Ohio is an Atlas blue state at this point, and it’s hard to see how it comes back to even being purple.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2018, 05:06:53 PM »

Maine counts by town, which means it takes a century because some towns are way slower at transmitting results than others.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2018, 10:17:45 PM »
Xochitl Torres Small was one of my favourite House candidates this cycle. Very happy to see her win.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2018, 02:36:59 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 02:35:40 PM


That's a very bad sign for McSally, especially since the early vote in AZ-09 actually had a Dem registration advantage iirc.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2018, 06:24:54 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:22:05 PM




Sinema now up 9,101 statewide. I don't think Maricopa's next update will be friendly to McSally.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2018, 07:01:12 PM »
Sinema leads by 21.1k now.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2018, 07:06:09 PM »
Looks like Democrats took the lead for one of the Corporation Commission (read: public utilities/service commission) spots too. That would turn it from a 5-0 R to a 4-1 R commission.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2018, 08:57:01 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 08:49:15 PM
It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.

It's a beautiful sight. Now, if only the rest of the country could follow suit.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2018, 07:13:17 PM »
LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2018, 09:02:47 PM »
Hobbs only down exactly 2008 votes in the SOS race now, and Sandra Kennedy has the most votes of anyone in the Corporation Commission race.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2018, 02:54:07 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 02:53:05 PM
Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2018, 02:59:21 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 02:57:44 PM
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on November 11, 2018, 02:54:07 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 02:53:05 PM
Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.


Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2018, 06:24:45 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:23:07 PM
Only 36K was counted in Maricopa County today.

Have those ballots been uploaded to the state yet?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2018, 06:58:37 PM »
Hobbs has the lead in the SOS race, and the AP still hasn't rescinded its call.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2018, 01:33:49 PM »
Quote from: Beet on November 12, 2018, 01:24:40 PM
Dave Brat was apparently caught on tape saying "[Republicans in the House] lie all the time."

Also, water is wet and the Pope is Catholic.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2018, 09:08:20 PM »
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2018, 10:13:55 PM »
I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2018, 10:17:47 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 10:15:48 PM
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on November 13, 2018, 10:13:55 PM
I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state...

The true nightmare scenario would be if California, Utah, and Arizona were all swing states at once.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2018, 03:18:52 PM »


Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh.
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