2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145247 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: June 28, 2018, 09:40:38 AM »
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2018, 03:38:14 PM »

That's quite a solid lead for Dems considering it's a Rasmussen poll.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2018, 09:28:32 AM »
WaPo/Schar - Dems lead 47-37 nationwide, 49-37 in battlegrounds

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-schar-school-poll-us-and-congressional-battlegrounds/2313/
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2018, 11:34:35 AM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 06, 2018, 11:31:16 AM
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 06, 2018, 11:21:42 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 06, 2018, 11:13:56 AM
The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

Looking forward to it tightening inevitably and the hot takes crediting the tax cut.
Expect a SCOTUS bump for the GOP soon 

LOL. 57% of Americans can't even name a single SCOTUS justice, and less than 1% can name all nine (source: https://static.c-span.org/assets/documents/scotusSurvey/CSPAN%20PSB%20Supreme%20Court%20Survey%20COMPREHENSIVE%20AGENDA%20sent%2003%2013%2017.pdf).
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2018, 01:51:17 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 09, 2018, 01:50:18 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 09, 2018, 12:22:18 PM
UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

Lol why even bother polling this district

Why bother polling anything if you're only polling 147 people?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 10:38:10 AM »
Quote from: OneJ on July 10, 2018, 10:34:52 AM
Any idea on why Montana is moved?

I imagine the Gravis poll that had him down explains at least some of it.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2018, 09:56:57 AM »
NY-19 (DCCC):

Delgado (D) 49
Faso (R-inc) 42

545 LV, June 27-28 (MoE: 4.2%)

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/dccc-poll-new-york
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2018, 12:50:03 PM »
IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2018, 07:49:10 AM »
PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2018, 02:05:40 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2018, 02:09:34 PM by ON Progressive »
MI-13 Dem primary (Target Insyght for MIRS):

Brenda Jones 21
William Wild 20
Rashida Tlaib 19
Coleman Young 14
Ian Conyers 8 (LOL)
Shanelle Jackson 4

Undecided 14

https://www.scribd.com/document/384312798/MI-13-Target-Insyght-for-MIRS-July-2018

MI-11 Dem primary (also Target Insyght for MIRS)
Haley Stevens 21
Suneel Grupta 15
Tim Greimel 14
Fayrouz Saad 7
Daniel Haberman 4

Undecided 39

https://www.scribd.com/document/384312848/MI-11-Target-Insyght-for-MIRS-July-2018
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2018, 10:03:26 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

That's WAY better than I expected.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2018, 10:10:36 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 24, 2018, 10:09:03 AM
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 24, 2018, 10:03:26 AM
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

That's WAY better than I expected.

It shouldn’t be:

Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 23, 2018, 08:06:00 PM
Quote from: mencken on July 23, 2018, 02:43:39 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 23, 2018, 10:14:35 AM
It's on, like Donkey Kong:



Keith is going to get Lambinated. Sad

My guess is this poll will show Lamb +8 or so. Rothfus has always been pretty weak and I’m sure Lamb has a lot of residual name rec and goodwill from his March election

I knew Lamb was going to be ahead, but I certainly did not think it was going to be a double digit lead in all models. Nobody did.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2018, 10:41:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote in 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?

Roughly 49-47 Trump.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2018, 12:37:59 PM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 24, 2018, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 24, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on July 24, 2018, 12:07:34 PM
Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

A lot of people who claim native heritage in those states are white people basing it off family stories (it's the same thing Elizabeth Warren is pinged for a lot by the right).
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2018, 09:02:23 AM »
Rasmussen has Dems up 47-40.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2018, 09:09:16 PM »
CA-50:
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2018, 11:01:49 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on August 03, 2018, 10:53:41 PM
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on August 03, 2018, 10:22:41 PM


Since the image is not displaying:

KS-04
Estes (GOP): 42
Thompson (Dem): 38


If only it weren't from Change Research.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2018, 07:09:53 PM »
Quote from: 136or142 on August 09, 2018, 05:39:32 PM


Please no.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2018, 05:59:39 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 17, 2018, 05:52:32 PM
NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36


LOL. 400 respondents, GOP internal, and 25% undecided? Throw this in the trash.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2018, 07:04:09 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on August 17, 2018, 06:58:30 PM
Not only do they make no mention of the sample i.d, but the top-line is the 5th question asked. Also, somehow McCann has better name recognition than Gottheimer which is laughable. I mean, I guess this is an internal but again, I dont trust it.

The poll asks multiple times if the person taking it is willing to vote for a republican, than does the topline.

LMAO. This is junk, but hemorrhofoid and Limo are eating it up of course. Mainly because this poll and their posts are both junk.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2018, 08:03:32 PM »
45% Trump approval is a bit high for a 49-45 Hillary seat, honestly.

Siena also has a history of being very bullish for incumbents in the polling before October. Tim Bishop was ahead 51-41 in Siena's September 2014 poll of NY-1.

It's still Lean R, don't get me wrong. I'd wait until their October poll though (if one happens), because those tend to be quite good.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2018, 07:13:28 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on August 29, 2018, 07:06:23 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 29, 2018, 07:03:57 PM
NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

Not bad but closer than I expected

Siena tends to overestimate incumbent strength in summer polls. In September 2014, Siena had Tim Bishop up 51-41 and Dan Maffei up 50-42. Because of that, this is a great sign for Democrats actually.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2018, 07:24:24 PM »
Quote from: mencken on August 29, 2018, 07:21:21 PM
Do we have evidence that Siena has a pro-incumbent bias and not a pro-Democrat bias?

Like I said, their pro-incumbent bias is only true for summer polls. Later in the campaign, their polls are significantly better.

Their October polls of the two races I mentioned earlier had Bishop down 50-45 (he lost 53-45) and Maffei down 52-42 (he lost 58-39).
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2018, 07:26:55 PM »
Quote from: 123NY on August 29, 2018, 07:25:54 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 29, 2018, 07:03:57 PM
NY-22:Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44


The GCB is R+13. Like I’ve been saying, a generic Republican would be winning easily here, but Claudia Tenney is not a generic Republican. You can see that from the fact that Brindisi is getting twenty-four percent of the Republican vote and is only underwater 31-37 among Republicans in terms of favorability that this is a perfect match-up for Democrats to pick off disaffected Rockefeller Republicans.

Are there really a ton of moderate GOPers in this district?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2018, 08:26:28 PM »
NC-07 (Lincoln Park Strategies/Horton internal):

Kyle Horton (D) 44
David Rouzer (R-inc) 40

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20180831_NC_7.pdf

I will take this with a massive grain of salt.
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