I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.
Either you don't know (or don't care) about polling history in Kentucky. In some other regions/states, not the case, but here you'd have to be in denial to ignore the obvious bias. Conway was stuck getting between 42 and 45% in most polls of the race, and what did he end up with? 44% The fact that this is a Democratic internal and he's at 48% should tell us 1) this has the potential to be somewhat of a close race, maybe closer than last time... but 2) we definitely cannot say he is 'favored to win' yet based on the numbers.
Except there's a Libertarian in the race, who is taking 5% in the poll, so Beshear can win with a plurality.
