In most other cases, the incumbent starts out with an advantage. Likely R in KY (McConnell). We've seen the Democrats try and fail to take him down, but he remains deeply unpopular as he should. If for some reason he retires or a Republican beats him in the primary I think it becomes Safe R. Lean R in GA (Perdue), IA (Ernst), and NC (Tillis) with Tillis being the most vulnerable of the three. Lean D for NH (Shaheen), Likely D for MI (Peters), MN (Smith - assuming she wins), and VA (Warner). MI and MN can have the potential to become more competitive. Everybody else is safe or very close to safe.
This should be pretty reasonable right now.
I don’t see how McConnell is more vulnerable than Daines.
Bullock could put Montana into play. Otherwise, there aren't really that many strong challengers to take him on. Even with Bullock, I would say Lean R at least.
I actually see Daines as more vulnerable than McConnell. After all, Kentucky is among the states nicknamed « coal country » (as Kentucky is America’s third coal producing state just after Wyoming and West Virginia) and McConnell can take an advantage in this, notably by labeling his potential Democratic opponent as « anti-coal ».
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/coal-production-by-state.html
Literally anyone the Democrats put up in Montana is more likely to win than any Democrat in Kentucky. McConnell is going to clobber whatever "rising star" decides to run against him this time, but I’m sure people will move it to Toss-up once Amy McGrath or Andy Beshear jump into the race.
Bruce Lunsford came close to beating McConnell in a presidential year, and McConnell is much less popular now then he was in 2008.
