2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Politician]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

Suburbs will do. See Virginia.

Virginia is an execption, not a rule. Ohio/Wisconsin subs for example are still solidly Rep.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/JamesThompsonKS/status/1025568460456243200

I cant believe that its possible for the Democrats to have a majority delegation in KS in the year 2019.

Also, Thompson is a personal favorite of mine this cycle, so I wish him the best.

Karma for the Republicans creating a 10-3 delegation in NC or a 12-4 delegation in OH; they have to see a red state be majority Democrats.

[Politician]

DCCC poll of CA-10: All tied up

Denham (GOP): 48
Harder (Dem): 48

Harder winning independents 53-35, Latinos 70-26.

Lean D.

[Politician]

Grayson is getting that much?

[Politician]

That CA-39 poll...

[Politician]

OH NO HE'S BACK

[Politician]

^Likely D, if Hardy isn't even up in his own internal he's probably losing.

[Politician]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

Any poll with both candidates that low = Fake poll.

Also don't let Admiral President see this

[Politician]

Is Roy Moore's biggest fan now trying to use a garbage pollster to "prove" a red wave?

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1031559982540566528

George Holding trailing by 3 points in his own internal apparently.

50 seat gain?

[Politician]

*raises eyebrow*

I do think Woodall is in more danger than Handel; though.

Agreed. And Bordreaux is a much better candidate than McBath.

[Politician]

NBC

D: 50(+2)
R: 42

BUT MUH POLLS PREDICTED HIlLARY LANDSLIDE HAVE YOU LEARNED NOTHING LIBTARDS

[Politician]

Love in trouble:

https://twitter.com/BenMcAdams/status/1034917347188858880

And yet Solid insists this is Safe R...

[Politician]

In this NBC poll of millennials, the the GCB has the GOP garnering paltry support from Blacks, Asians, and Latinx with 8%, 9%, and also 9% respectively for the 2018 midterms.

That is honestly impressive...

https://t.co/jrMBgwf8Ff

BUT BUT MUH KANYE ENDORSEMENT

MUH #WALKAWAY

[Politician]

Based on the crosstabs from this poll, this race is clearly a tossup with a small edge for Delgado.

[Politician]

I could actually see a scenario where Republican turnout is depressed in NC due to the lack of a statewide election, causing districts like this one to be closer than usual.

[Politician]

VA-09 (Flaccavento internal, end of June):
Morgan Griffith (R-inc) 48
Flaccavento (D) 41

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1031664398895656961

Yet another absurdly unbelievable internal.

LOL, no way this is true, if it is Democrats are gaining 100+ House seats.

[Politician]

Ipsos/Reuters, Aug. 22-28, 2774 registered voters

D: 47 (+6)
R: 34 (-3)

Where are the Daily Wire and National Review articles about Democrats now having their biggest lead yet?

[Politician]

ND - Kelly Armstrong (R) internal showis him leading Schneider (D) by 21 points:



Trump approval: 59/37 (+22)

Armstrong leading 63-20 in the Bismarck-Minot media market and 45-42 in Fargo-Grand Forks.

Likely R, but Andrew will probably say "Horrible poll for Heitkamp" or something stupid like that. This race is totally different than ND-SEN (a "standard" Democrat in a red district.)

[Politician]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

[Politician]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

Utah 4th has been quite disappointing, I won't lie. I thought we had an A grade recruit who was narrowly favored, and it has all but fizzled out.

Mia Love is only up 2 points in the last poll. That is not "fizzling out".

[Politician]

I couldn't help but notice Chris Stewart is under 50. #Ghorbanimentum, #NoSeatIsSafe.

[Politician]

Funny how people rush to discredit Ojeda being clobbered by Miller in that Siena poll, but suddenly Upton being ahead in a Dem internal is something to be excited about.

Ojeda is not being "clobbered" he's barely behind in a Trump +50 district. This actually shows a resurgence with the rural WWC.

[Politician]

The generic ballot in Michigan is D+12. That is more than enough to flip the state legislature.

So I guess now we know what the next state to repeal "right-to-work" is.

What a laugh, the Michigan Senate is heavily, heavily, heavily gerrymandered with Dems being geographically packed into Detroit (with their base in the UP as well as Eastern Michigan drying up due to neglect). Any hopes of repealing RTW should be flushed down the toilet until the next redistricting which would hopefully correct things.

And 19/27 current Republican legislators in the State Senate are term limited. Democrats are already seriously targeting around 10 GOP-held seats, and a big Whitmer victory could pull lots of Democrats through.

[Politician]

Nate Silver just said that a +14 GCB would be a 65-seat gain for the Dems and a flip of the Senate.

But MuhSally and AZ polls though

Muh UncleSam says Arizona is Likely R