Senate/House Polling Hype Thread

[Politician]

For once, Limo is right. Seriously, who needs to know Gillibrand leads by 35?

[Politician]

Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7, Gianforte +2 (with many “undecideds”).

Guess: Tester +6, Gianforte +4.

[Politician]

Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.

Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.

As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.

There are 3 polls with Scott +4 or more:

5/28 FAU Scott +4:  https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/fau-poll-scott-edging-nelson-senate-race-trump-approval/f1R3VtiD14RG4HwpjeQ5iI/
       
6/4 Cherry Communications. Scott +5: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=179

6/11. Morning Consult. Scott +1: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358

6/12 St. Leo University Scott +6: http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-poll

So, do you change from tilt D

At worst for Scott based on actual Florida polls it is a toss up.   At best tilt R

This list could double as a sampling of bad pollsters.

[Politician]

Prediction: Manchin +6, Miller +2