How did Dewey almost win Philadelphia in 1948??!!

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia shifted from being a Republican bastion to a Democratic bastion overnight between 1932 and 1936.  The city had voted between 58%and 60% for FDR in the next 3 elections. Post Eisenhower, Democrats won the city by at least 30 points in every election but 1972 and 1980. After 1932, the city never came close to voting GOP again...

Except for in 1948. In an election in which Dewey lost the popular vote by 4 points and Truman generally performed very well in Northeastern cities, Truman only won this city 48.8% to 48.1%, a tiny margin of 0.7% Compared to 1944, the Democratic vote decreased from 496k to 433k. Dewey's vote increased from 346k to 426k. This shows that Dewey very clearly appealed to the area, with a large amount of 1944 FDR - 1948 Dewey voters.

In 1952, the country shifted from a 4 point Dem victory to a 11 point GOP victory. Eisenhower increased GOP margins in virtually the entire country but did especially well in the Northwest and in urban areas. While the nation swung GOP by 15 points (and the Northeast likely by an even larger amount), Philadelphia somehow swung against the GOP by 16 points! Philadelphia trended 31 points Democratic! Stevenson won the city 58.1%-41.4%. The GOP's vote declined from 426k to 397k, while the Democratic vote increased from 433k to 557k. Somehow, it seems that Philadelphia contained a large number of Dewey-Stevenson voters! And Eisenhower only performed 3 points better in 1956, and only in 1972 did the GOP come even close to matching Ike's margin.


Why did Philadelphia, unlike everywhere else in the country, seem to contain a large amount of Dewey-Stevenson voters? Did the city's politics massively shift in these four years like it did 1932-1936? If so, why? Was Dewey an amazing candidate in this city somehow? Was Eisenhower a bad candidate here somehow? Did Truman anger people here? Was Stevenson beloved here? Was there a huge demographic change? The results here in 1948 are completely mind blowing considering Ike's underperformance, so I would love some Atlas investigating done into this.

[E-Dawg]

Republicans controlled the city government until 1951.  That may not explain 1936-1944, but it may explain the swing between 1948 and 1952.

I dont find 1936-1944 weird, sicne FDR won in landslides during those elections. What happened in 1951 that lead to Republicans losing control? Was there a hige political shift in the city that explains Eisenhower's underperformance?

[E-Dawg]

Anyone want to attempt to describe a Philidelphia Dewey-Stevenson voter?

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

So in 1948 the Republican machine managed to make the city vote close against Truman, but in 1952 the dominant Democratic machine managed to deliver Stevenson a 15 point win despite the national swing? Did the Democrats in 1952 manage to turn out a lot of previous non voters? Since Ike had a raw vote 30k less than Dewey, were there some Dewey-Stevenson voters for whatever reason?

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

So in 1948 the Republican machine managed to make the city vote close against Truman, but in 1952 the dominant Democratic machine managed to deliver Stevenson a 15 point win despite the national swing? Did the Democrats in 1952 manage to turn out a lot of previous non voters? Since Ike had a raw vote 30k less than Dewey, were there some Dewey-Stevenson voters for whatever reason?

Think about who the candidates were and their backgrounds and then think about how that would appeal to say:

1. African-Americans
2. White Ethnics
3. WASPs
4. Jewish Voters

Truman did well with many of these voters in most places but it is possible that him being a border state bumpkin enabled the GOP machine to pull off one last hurrah "almost" against him.

Compared to the egg head Stevenson who was if anything ahead of his time in terms of the New Deal and what the New Deal was doing in terms of College Educated Urban WASPs (Kevin Phillips talks about this liberalization process of Urban WASPs as well as the diversification of that group post New Deal and post war). Combine that with FDR legacy among unions, continued strong support among African-Americans and possibly localized improvement with Jewish Voters (if the machine still had some influence there in the 40s).

Its not so much that a new machine replaced the old over night, but a new electoral paradigm washed the machine away and helped carry Democrats to victory city wide in 1951. Subsequent White Flight would then push the city to become solidly Democratic and the Democratic machine with its own corruption would take shape once most of the reformers had moved on to other positions by the mid 60s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1951_Philadelphia_municipal_election#Mayor

Though it should be stated that Republicans came close to winning Philly in 74 for Senator, with Schweiker under 4,500 votes away from winning the City, and Specter outright won the city in 1980.

Did Philiadelphia experience any significant white flight between 1948 and 1952?