CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

Its gonna be really bizarre if Newsom wins Orange and Riverside but loses San Bernardino. San Bernardino has consistently voted left of those two counties, why does it seem like that won't be the case here?

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

UPDATE:
Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in) (Unchanged)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (69% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 9% more votes in)
Riverside: NO 52.1-47.9 (70% of vote in) (Very slight shift in favor of recall with 8% more votes in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (82% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 7% more votes in)

I think that Merced will end up voting for recall thanks to the margin being so close, but since the other 3 have barely shifted, I don't think the math is there for them to flip to Yes unless the outstanding ballots end up being very Yes leaning.

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

UPDATE:
Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in) (Unchanged)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (69% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 9% more votes in)
Riverside: NO 52.1-47.9 (70% of vote in) (Shifted 0.6% towards Yes with 8% more votes in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (82% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 7% more votes in)

I think that Merced will end up voting for recall thanks to the margin being so close, but since the other 3 have barely shifted, I don't think the math is there for them to flip to Yes unless the outstanding ballots end up being very Yes leaning.

UPDATE 2

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 51.8-48.2 (77% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 51.7-48.3 (76% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.4-47.6 (85% of vote in)

Total Change since my first post:
Merced: No Votes Added. Expecting a flip to Yes because of the extremely close margin.

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.


Orange shifted from +5.2% NO with 75% reporting to +4.8% NO with 85% reporting. No chance of flipping.

Truly insane that it looks certain that San Bernadino will vote to the right of Orange. Has this every happened in ANY election?!

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

UPDATE:
Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in) (Unchanged)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (69% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 9% more votes in)
Riverside: NO 52.1-47.9 (70% of vote in) (Shifted 0.6% towards Yes with 8% more votes in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (82% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 7% more votes in)

I think that Merced will end up voting for recall thanks to the margin being so close, but since the other 3 have barely shifted, I don't think the math is there for them to flip to Yes unless the outstanding ballots end up being very Yes leaning.

UPDATE 2

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 51.8-48.2 (77% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 51.7-48.3 (76% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.4-47.6 (85% of vote in)

Total Change since my first post:
Merced: No Votes Added. Expecting a flip to Yes because of the extremely close margin.

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.


Orange shifted from +5.2% NO with 75% reporting to +4.8% NO with 85% reporting. No chance of flipping.

Truly insane that it looks certain that San Bernadino will vote to the right of Orange. Has this every happened in ANY election?!

Is it though?  Democrats are the party of the UMC now.  What makes OC unique from Fairfield, Fairfax, Montgomery, etc.?

True, I just find it surprising that it happened THIS election, since in 2016, 2018, and 2020 Orange county voted at least a couple points rightward of San Bernardino.

[E-Dawg]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.5% (-0.7%) / 322,574 votes (+16,180) / NO
49.5% (+0.7%) / 315,702 votes (+23,558) / YES

Going by the NYT's figures (which stated 598,538 votes marked 81% of votes having been counted), we should expect there to be a final total of ~739K votes in Riverside County. Even with the current total number of votes, there are still some 100K votes left to count in this county.


Alright everybody, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Riverside County did indeed vote for the recall.
Honestly, looking at the numbers, it probably was by a non-insignificant margin of between 1% and 3%.
Striking vote-by-mail numbers, but ultimately they will be indecisive as Newsom stays in office.

Riverside's own website says they have 65,000 mail and 5,000 provisionals left to count.

In which case it looks like the NYTimes projection doesn't work, and there does in fact remain a possibility, however slim, of Riverside remaining "No".

If there are 70K votes left to count it looks like "Yes" would need to win 55% of them to win the county.
They outpaced that in their last batch, which "Yes" won by 60%.

I think the final margin is close to Yes+1.0% here honestly

Wow, I did not see this coming. Looks like the only county flipping from the 2018 gov election will be Merced (from Newsom 2018 to Yes 2021).

[E-Dawg]

Merced finally flipped to Yes

[E-Dawg]

Where are you guys following results?

I've mainly been checking the NYT page (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/14/us/elections/results-california-recall.html)
and the state sos page (https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/governor-recall)

[E-Dawg]

Did any Feinstein 2018 counties flip to yes so far?

Every Feinstein 2018 county voted no and none of them look likely to flip. If you meant Newsom 2018, then Merced already flipped to yes and San Bernadino most likely will too

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.

My bolded takes above now look to have been wrong, the late ballots were a lot more Yes-leaning than we expected.

[E-Dawg]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

[E-Dawg]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

The vote counting hasnt been any worse compared to California and New York in the 2020 elections, do you doubt the integrity of those elections as well?

[E-Dawg]

Ugh this wait is painful, I just want to see which way San Bernardino voted!