IA (DMR/Selzer): Trump +15 (user search)
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  IA (DMR/Selzer): Trump +15 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA (DMR/Selzer): Trump +15  (Read 1944 times)
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,208
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« on: March 05, 2024, 05:07:00 PM »

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,208
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2024, 05:24:22 PM »

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

Wasn’t it accurately a bad omen for Wisconsin though? It finished so close.

Iowa didn't suggest much about the Milwaukee and Madison suburbs that saved Biden, and are continuing to move left to this day.

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

The selzer poll WAS a bad omen for Biden in Wisconsin. It showed that the state was going to be razor thin like 2016, and that other polls of the state were too Biden friendly

Anyone with common sense should have known that Biden wasn't going to win Wisconsin by 17, let alone anywhere beyond the low single digits on his best night.
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