Why is Trump still competitive against Biden after everything that's happened?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because we're polarized, thanks mostly to Trump. But even then, I think there is more to this election than polling and even with Biden's unpopularity, Americans want an attractive alternative that I doubt a disgraced former President, at his weakest status, charged with 91 felonies, who is incapable of discipline and an actual message that can attract new voters will be. 2022 was very much indicative of this. Democrats were not popular but the Republican Party offered nothing better in many of the most important battleground states.

I'm not saying Trump can't win at all in the end. Our system can still allow him that. But if unforeseen circumstances for next year don't pan out to Trump's advantage, his best and only hope is probably for Democratic complacency/disillusionment or enough of them voting third party to cause another 2016. The possibility is there, but as long as Democrats instill the stakes of having Trump as President again, and remind voters of the lessons we were supposed to learn from 2016, I still think Biden wins in the end as of right now and that the incumbency advantage he will get (which both Obama and Trump got as well in their respective re-election campaigns) will manifest itself subconsciously in voters when they actually go out to the polls.