One week left, predict final Virginia margin

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

Take a break man. McAuliffe is going to win and even if he doesn't, the VA gubernatorial election is not that important. The sun is still gonna rise on November 3rd regardless of what happens in VA.

I would take a break from Atlas until after the election if I were you.

I know, I'm a mess right now. I was actually already considering that after Virginia election no matter what happened. But yeah, I may just have to earlier now. It's been a rough month for me and bad political news is the last thing I really need on top of everything else that's happened to me this month.