I think Trump will get 32% of the Hispanic vote. The dem will get around 64%. He will do better across the board among ethnicities (particularly in Florida, Puerto Ricans hate their leadership as much as Trump and helped Scott and DeSantis win), still College Educated whites will keep Arizona in play and the fact that the number of hispanics will increase may offset the gains.
Bumping because you totally nailed this. It is a shame you peddle so much misinformation on your YouTube channel because otherwise you would make a great political pundit.
That's one hell of a broken clock moment.
Clearly those of us who thought his gains would be constrained to Cubans and Venezuelans overestimated the electorate once again. I don't necessarily think that many of these new Latin Trump voters have the cultish devotion to him now that his base has though. They can definitely be won back, but the question is what will it take? What issues do they actually care about and what exactly did Trump do to win them over? It's a very difficult thing to wrap my mind around.
I think the key issue was socialism. Someone who is strong against the Castro regime and strong against socialism will do better with this group. Biden was falsely but successfully portrayed as someone who would be "controlled" by the left wing elements of the Democratic party, and that spooked a lot of people.
For Cubans and Venezuelans that definitely was the case, but I'm not entirely sure that's what swayed Mexican and Central Americans in the Rio Grande Valley. As keeps getting pointed out the United States' Hispanic community is not monolithic and this election makes that clearer than ever.
I'm wondering if it is simpler than all that and just has to do with the massive turnout we saw in this election. Latinos generally turn out at among the worst rates of any demographic group in this country, but this year that may have changed and brought the low propensity ones out who may just happen to have always skewed more conservative and rarely acted on those sensibilities until now. I'm not entirely sure, but that's one theory. The anomalous turnout from this year definitely complicates any sort of analysis that can be made about the details of this election.
