Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm. As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could. I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up. Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR. Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.
I don't understand - Democrats don't rely on those voters much because they are all almost gone. Someone born in 1930 is going to be almost 90 years old now. That is an incredibly small part of the electorate, and when you look at how Republican-leaning the 65+ age group is in FL, it's pretty clear Democrats don't rely on them. The Democratic base in Florida is similar to other states - Millennials + minorities, with a decently large age gap.
Highly doubtful Florida becomes another reliable Republican state. Republicans have retirees, but they won't be around forever, and there is enough growth among FL Millennials and minorities to counteract the pro-R trends for the time being. And then 20-30 years from now, Republicans will have to deal with a situation where many older Millennials are getting close to retiring. All bets are off once Millennials move into the 45-64 age group en masse.
It's a tilt GOP state, but glacially, it will vote for Bill Nelson. The Dems don't really need FL in order to win the EC college.
Florida is a good fail-safe though. It's worth even more than Wisconsin and Michigan combined.
