CO-05 gives me mo-02esque vibes. Though in a very different way. Though I believe a Democrat eventually flipping the congressional here is more possible than MO-02.. while conversely Democrats winning MO-02 locally was/still is a bit easier than CO-05. Partially due to the fact that Missouri Democrats have very few gop leaning areas in MO where they could convert votes beside suburban St. Louis. Democrats already do well in Colorado so hard investment here is less necessary for them.
My early guess in the open will be R+8 in this open seat acknowledging the trend of the area, but still a strong GOP lean with perhaps the CO Supreme Court ruling hurting a bit. If there any part of Colorado that the ruling could help the gop in local/state elections, this is it. The plains are pro -GOP no matter what.
If DRUMPF wins in 2024, I could see this flipping in 2026. Whoever the Republican is next January 2025 won't be as entrenched.
There's a decent chance Biden will win CO-05 in 2024. Trump "only" carried it by 10 in 2020, and IIRC Polis only lost it by 2 and in recent years Colorado is a place where Dems keep outrunning expectations.
The issue is the seat has always seemed to exhibit some down ballot lag in favor of Rs - so even if Biden wins it I could see it splitting ticket for even a far right R as long as they don't get too much media. Remember, Boebert outran Trump in 2020 in CO-03
Yes, but the thing is that just because it happened in 2020 it does not mean it will also happen in 2024. It literally just depends on how Democrats prioritize and campaign in CO-05. No, I do not believe that Biden can win it at this time.
CO-03: 55% chance. It will be close and this is bold, but Frisch has legit made a good name for himself.
CO-04- ehh 15 to 20% chance. If BOEBERT is the nominee, you just can’t totally count it out. Could raise to 30% could drop to 0%. It would be Musgrave 2.0
CO-05- Waiting on nominee for Democrats. Right now I will say 30% chance. The trends are real in this district. Williams vs a good dem would be close.
For CO-04, if BOEBERT is the nominee.. I fully expect her to LOSE the Larmier and Douglas County portion of the district.
