Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[jamestroll]

Good Morning,

I think this warrants a thread. They are three major races early in the night with a 7pm Eastern Poll closing that can give us a feel for the night early. With the major caveat that mail in votes from prince william county may delay VA-07 results. But sitll, if it this is called for Spanberger or Vega early.. The night is clear.

If Wexton loses.. prepare for 2010 again!

If Luria loses.. that's expected. if she wins, Democrats are doing better than expected

[jamestroll]

Good Morning,

I think this warrants a thread. They are three major races early in the night with a 7pm Eastern Poll closing that can give us a feel for the night early. With the major caveat that mail in votes from prince william county may delay VA-07 results. But sitll, if it this is called for Spanberger or Vega early.. The night is clear.

If Wexton loses.. prepare for 2010 again!

If Luria loses.. that's expected. if she wins, Democrats are doing better than expected

I’m not optimist, but I highly doubt Wexton loses.  She may win by only a couple points, but not even Youngkin could win here.

Yea, but margins matter in that particular district.

[jamestroll]

As far as Virginia...

now do you see why I have been pretty gung ho about Wexton having a competitive race? Nothing on top of the ballot to turn them out..

But if he wins.. Cao.. enjoy your two year stunt as congressman. You ain't winning in 2024.

Vega.. enjoy your two years maybe four or six depending who is president.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1590044358501597184

based on what I know now... Ill pick Wexton, Vega, and Kiggins to win.

But the first two very tight.

[jamestroll]

VA-10 will be close.

If you do not like that, to bad!

As far as Virginia...

now do you see why I have been pretty gung ho about Wexton having a competitive race? Nothing on top of the ballot to turn them out..

But if he wins.. Cao.. enjoy your two year stunt as congressman. You ain't winning in 2024.

Vega.. enjoy your two years maybe four or six depending who is president.

I feel pretty confident in saying Wexton will win and it won't be that close.

VA-07 does worry me a bit more though because unlike VA-10, you don't have as large of a liberal white base and it seems like right now, voter turnout is strongest among white voters, both liberal and more conservative whites.

This is 2022, not 2024.

[jamestroll]

Isn't that literally the same guy who in 2017 did the whole "Good for Dems in the morning, very bad for Dems in the middle of the day, Good again for Dems in the evening!" thing?

I was not referring just to that tweet, but everything I am seeing so far. It could change.

[jamestroll]

Gonna make a twitter account to stay on top of the results. Who should I follow?

Already on my radar: Wasserman, Ralston, Nate Silver, Nate Cohn

I just made a fake twitter account.

lol

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/GuamPDN/status/1590040552598560770

ticket splitting is back baby!!!

[jamestroll]

Wasserman ringing the alarms.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590062540381630465?t=Wu_cQKm5FK6ntji9VlYp...

He’s seen enough.

He will see enough this evening.

And for him to suggest 2018 was not impressive for dems.. he is missing the big picture.

[jamestroll]

RIP Wexton

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1590061708152041473?s=46&t=JKmlrsu...

if that is true..

I am looking forward to Cao's slaughter in 2024. lol He would lose by 8 to 12 points I guess that year.

But does that include early vote?

Wexton needs 55% minimum in Loudoun to win district wide.

[jamestroll]

Woah, this is some crazy video out of Yuma County, AZ. What are these Hobbs supporters thinking?

https://kyma.,com/news/top-stories/2022/11/08/violence-erupts-at-fortuna-foothills-polling-place-hobbs-lake/

I keep telling you all a civil war is upcoming.

[jamestroll]

OPEN THE ATLAS PREDICTIONS PAGE AGAIN

I thought I still had time to update my gubernatorial map

haha  i am already looking forward to the 2026 midterms.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1590092368522653698?t=rqrD_pc-29wFNWmk...

Me too, Chaz.

Hmm if she loses.. I would say VA-07 would again be a barn burner race in 2024.

Though I would say Biden and especially Kaine would be favored to carry that district in 2024. On the other hand, Vega could also mesh well in that area.

She wouldn't be nearly Doa like Cao.

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

VA-10 is not a normal district.

I had a nervous breakdown on this site back in the spring about people calling it safe D.

Virginia. 10th. District. Is. Not. Safe. D.

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

VA-10 is not a normal district.

I had a nervous breakdown on this site back in the spring about people calling it safe D.

Virginia. 10th. District. Is. Not. Safe. D.

Die on this hill, but I will come back and requote this post.

That would be fine with me. Everyone gets something wrong. If I am wrong I am wrong.

And I was too busy IRL to pay granular attention this year to the elections.

[jamestroll]

NoVA on track for a 2021 redux

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1590098945581404162

I have no idea what will happen in the 10th and 7th at this point. I would say democrats are lucky they do as well in Nova as they do...

[jamestroll]

Don't we tell ourselves not to pay too close attention to early exit polls every year.. then we end up doing that exact thing? lol

[jamestroll]

there wont be a blue wave

[jamestroll]

Is it too late to change my PA prediction? Lol

yes.

[jamestroll]

I wish we had a rule here

- Do not look at early exits

[jamestroll]

Half hour until the FL & GA slaughter begins.

Will you actually leave the forum for a year if it doesn't?

I hope not. We need sane republicans here....

the gop would be much better if they were more like sirwoodbury.

That should tell you how awful the gop is.

[jamestroll]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

strong disagree.

Look how Democrats did in 2018 while the economy was doing very well.. they will not do well tonight.

[jamestroll]

kentucky blue on cnn lmao.. temporarily tho!

STOP THE COUNT NOW!!!

[jamestroll]

I just got home from work.. any thoughts about my nova girls? Wexton and Spanberger?