2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[jamestroll]

I would advise either side to be cautious in redistricting. Part of me wonders if the GOP very modest redistricting is partially due to memories of the 2018 and even 2020 elections. I mean Democrats held seats in 2020 that were unimaginable early in the decade.

I also think MO-02..even if there was no line change at all.. would be more solid for the GOP without Trump.

Missouri suburbs do not have a whole lot of reason to vote Democrat in general. But I would be inclined to believe the new MO-02 could still be competitive if there is a GOP president and Wagner retires. We shall see.

I still maintain an open seat or stronger candidate in MO 02 in 2018 would have probably flipped it.
Some of the Democratic maps may be more inclined for backfiring. See Illinois.

[jamestroll]

Just saying.. I do not think Suburban Missouri are exactly the type of suburbs that will keep trending Democratic without Trump in office..

[jamestroll]

Dirty little secret: Wagner's district is like literally ZERO danger without Trump in office.

St. Louis metro is one of the most segregated metros in the country,

[jamestroll]

They are literally doing a prayer session for a 7-1 map...?

Dems should hold a prayer for a 7D-0R map, surely god will equalize it and we'll get a 4-4 #fairmap

Well the fair map would be 5 Rethuglicans to 3 Democrats.

[jamestroll]

The new MO-02 would need a major wave or localized candidate to flip and would probably only flip in a statewide race a Democrat manages to win.

Yea, we will not be hearing about it much this decade.

[jamestroll]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

It’s still only Trump by single digits. It could be a problem by the end of the decade if the trends in St. Louis and St. Charles continue.

Def could, but as others have pointed out, STL suburbs aren't growing particularly fast nor rlly becoming more diverse so I have my doubts. I think Dems path to victory in the district would run through a really solid performance in the St. Charles portion of the district as that's def the area where they have the most to gain and is the favored quarter of the city, plus it actually growing

There is really no reason for those people to vote Democratic and few in the new district (or even the old boundaries, but to a lesser extent) are even liberal. Though a crazy maga rural Republican could face some issues.

[jamestroll]

Will the City of St. Louis ever have a decent Congressperson?

I hated Clay and I hate Bush.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1517186179355062273

Current talk in town is that there's a chance we might end up holding the election under old lines due to the Purcell Principle. Apparently there's a pretty widespread view that state courts don't have the authority to impose a remedial map, so any solution would come from Federal Courts who might be reluctant to get involved given the proximity to the primary.

Seems unlikely there will be a formal conference committee, but there seems to some discussions between house and senate members to modify the House map to shore up MO-2 (albeit in a less visually disgusting manner than the Senate map). Whether that will actually get passed or not remains to be seen.

Isn’t that illegal? States are required to redistrict every 10 years, and the old districts have significant variation in population by now. Also unlike VA they’ve had the data they need for more than enough time.

In short, Yes, but the argument is the remedy might be worse, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Stuff like this makes me so angry, especially since it should be easy to meet everyone’s demands within reason. Keep KC whole and shore up MO-02! There ya go!

In terms of least change map, here's one that moves less than 200k people:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1512569914573443079

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0b2c7a4c-6ffa-4342-9bfa-9dc9d6ec7e46

MO-2 probably isn't as shored up for the GOP as much as they'd want, though it's kind of hilarious how little the House and Senate maps change MO-2's lean from a "baseline" map.

If the court draws a map why wouldn’t it be a FAIR map. Which would mean Dems get 3 seats?

A 5-3 map would needlessly split STL City and its questionable if you could still draw a 5-3 map in a way that MO-1 remains plurality black VAP.

Worth pointing out even the maps proposed by Democrats had MO-2 as like Biden +1. A "fair" map in MO is basically the current map exactly. 5 safe GOP, 2 safe Dem, one Tossup.

yes exactly. A fair map in Missouri is hard to draw proportionally due to packing.

I mean you know me.. I oppose partisan gerrymandering either way. However, I am pretty sure that MO-01 does not need to be majority black for a Democrat to win it in a landslide.

MO-02 was not drawn in 2011 redistricting cycle with anticipation of being competitive.  I still remember some people saying MO-04 or MO-06 were more possible for Democrats back at the time. MO-06 I kinda get due to ancestral voting patterns and KC suburbs. MO-04 was just recency bias with Skelton.

[jamestroll]

Yea... this pretty much keeps the suburban St. Louis MO 02 district out of reach for democrats.

I think Galloway won it by a hair tho?