Trump: I WILL WIN VIRGINIA IN 2020

[jamestroll]

As a new Virginia voter, who has been studying in depth the politics, I will say Trump could come close but to actually carry the state without a left wing third party candidate is damn near impossible.

Demographics are horrible for the GOP in NoVA and too much government work dependency in the state.

[jamestroll]

The Democratic turnout in Virginia was huge. Trump ain't winning that.

Yes.  Agreed.  And Biden is a good fit for the state.  Biden wins by 10 points, keeps the 3 new freshmen congresswomen safe as well.  

Eh I still main at end of the day that Sanders will win Nova by enough that he would win Virginia as a whole. But barely.

But with Biden as the probable nominee my rating of VA from from tilt D to Likely D very quickly. And I actually voted for Bernie this morning to say FU to extreme income inequality

[jamestroll]

The Democratic turnout in Virginia was huge. Trump ain't winning that.

Yes.  Agreed.  And Biden is a good fit for the state.  Biden wins by 10 points, keeps the 3 new freshmen congresswomen safe as well.  

Eh I still main at end of the day that Sanders will win Nova by enough that he would win Virginia as a whole. But barely.

But with Biden as the probable nominee my rating of VA from from tilt D to Likely D very quickly. And I actually voted for Bernie this morning to say FU to extreme income inequality

Bernie still favored simply because of the demographics of the state but yeah it would likely be the barest of margins and he'd need to actually campaign there a bit.  But given that it's likely Biden the state is completely off the table.  The Trump team is probably looking at these turnout numbers and realizing there's no hope in contesting the state.

Yup.

With Biden: State is called within 30 minutes of polls closing

With Sanders: Eventually wins by 1 to 2% after Nova comes in and ironically saves him.

Living here makes me more angry about extreme income inequality but my views do not change still.

[jamestroll]

Lol

[jamestroll]

Trump can win with this map:

I would scream at the top of my lungs, and proceed to go in to depression. Everything is lost.

That’s like a D+4 map lmao

I was just thinking the same thing immediately when I saw that map.

I kind of wish Sanders got the nomination because it would have been an amusing election in Virginia and would have been fun to see all the people who believe that Trump would have swept Nova against Sanders eat crow.

Sanders would have still barely won Virginia

[jamestroll]

Every time I come into this thread I lose brain cells.

And Sanders would have still swept Nova handily despite people characterizing it as a Romney-Clinton region which is simply untrue.

[jamestroll]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Ironically Nova Numbers for Sanders would have still been far above the national median for Sanders lol.

[jamestroll]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

[jamestroll]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

Umm, in what world is Sanders doing better in PWC than Fairfax? I doubt he does 20 points worse in Fairfax and he sure as hell isn't improving on Hillary in PWC. Loudoun looks solid though.

PWC more minority heavy and I feel like the Sanders drop off would be stronger in Fairfax than PWC.

[jamestroll]

I can be a moderate hero here and say:

1) The individuals who believe that Trump was going to sweep all of Nova in landslides are just plain ignorant.

and

2) It is unlikely that Sanders would have been able to matched Clinton's numbers in Nova which would have lead to a very competitive state and Trump possibly winning Virginia.

I have seen literally hundreds of people on Atlas or Discord that Trump would win Fairfax County over Sanders. Which is just nonsense.

[jamestroll]

Lol