LA: Edgewater Research/Gray TV - JBE leads 50-47

[jamestroll]

Pretty much what I expect to happen (JBE by 2-3%).

In the 90s and 2000s when a Democrat won a red state it was because the rural areas swung and supported the Democratic candidate.

Now it is almost the mirror opposite. It will be GOP suburban areas swinging and supporting Jon Bel Edwards. The 2019 run off map will almost be an inverse of 2003!

[jamestroll]

Pretty much what I expect to happen (JBE by 2-3%).

In the 90s and 2000s when a Democrat won a red state it was because the rural areas swung and supported the Democratic candidate.

Now it is almost the mirror opposite. It will be GOP suburban areas swinging and supporting Jon Bel Edwards. The 2019 run off map will almost be an inverse of 2003!

To be fair, rural areas, particularly those in Acadiana, probably swing more d than suburbs, even now.

Yes because they are starting from such a low number and eventually the GOP will have a huge problem with rural packing under present coalitions.

The dynamic of "big city" vs "us" dynamic will keep a significant number of suburbanites voting GOP for the foreseeable future but they will be a minority.