* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections
This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap.
Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic. Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races.
The Dem swing seems more Midwestern focused to me. Republicans are holding up surprisingly well in GA and LA (although their unique election system complicates any comparisons) and even MS. In AL, I would ignore any results that were on the same special election ballot as the Roy Moore race, as that was a very exceptional circumstance.
Perhaps tariff backlash in farm country is a factor here?
Trump probably over performed and was like 10 years into the future in the Midwest. The 2018 midterm swings will be hysterical from 2016 presidential voting patterns in the Midwest. There never was a blue wall if you look at results since 2000.
It will also be hysterical when those same states that make the huge Democratic swings in 2018 become the same states that deny Democrats an electoral college majority in 2020. The new red wall. haha
