Initial Inside Elections/Gonzales 2018 Senate ratings

[jamestroll]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Honestly that site almost mirrors my initial views of the state of races to a T.

Of course if the election was held next Tuesday I would have these ratings:

GOP Pick Up: MO, IN, ND, OH.
Dem Pick Up: None

Toss Up: Nevada, Montana and Wisconsin.
Tilting Democrat: Florida, West Virginia and Pennsylvania
Lean Republican: Arizona

But the election is not being held next week. It is being held 656 days from now.

[jamestroll]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Well, I agree, I just don't think it makes much sense to rate IN/MO Tossups and then rate NV Lean R and AZ Likely R. Should McCaskill and Donnelly win reelection, it almost certainly means that Heller is headed for a double digit loss and that Flake is in big, big trouble. There is no universe in which Democrats hold IN and MO but don't pick up NV or AZ (unless the NV Dems nominate another Shelley Berkley). Incumbency isn't as powerful as it once used to be.

I do not think Senate races move so uniformly. That is just an Atlas Fantasy.

All that site is doing is making early educated guesses. It would be just as valid to make a projection based on what would happen if the election was held today which would of course result in a lot of Republican pick ups.

If you do not like that site's ratings just make your own site. It is better than getting all emotional over it.

[jamestroll]

Sorry if I came off as rude. I just don't want to put too much stock into any of these ratings right now.

And I supported Romney in 2012. So if I like a Democratic Senator, it means they are a good senator. End of story.

[jamestroll]

also @IndyRep,

Pit told me that McCaskill is talented and could well win re-election, so I guess it is true.

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

lmao ha ha

[jamestroll]

also @IndyRep,

Pit told me that McCaskill is talented and could well win re-election, so I guess it is true.

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

lmao ha ha

there's a difference between fighting for your states interests or whatever and being a full-on Lieberman.

Lieberman was scum. Just a dangerous war hawk.

But it is easy to say you oppose the Iraq War now so many years after the fact. Though the tide did clearly begin to turn in Mid-2005. And I agree that Lieberman was from a state that clearly opposed the war pre mid 2005 so his actions were not excusable.

[jamestroll]

Awww poor babies ... People going into a cryfest because a site makes ratings they slightly disagree with over 600 days before the election.

[jamestroll]

I think a better comparison for any "omg Michigan is competitive" thing is Indiana - How can we say Dan Coats is safe in Indiana in 2010 when Obama just won in 2008!

Yo dude Obama won Indiana last year and elected three dems in Congress in 2006 AND reelected them . Ellsworth defeated an incumbent by the largest margin of any new Democrat in 2006. No damn way coats can defeat Ellsworth in 2010. this is the Obama nation now. Get ova it dude

[jamestroll]

Mr. Dragon ,

Do you really think all elections will exactly match 2016 forever? No midterm recently has matched the previous presidential election well so there is no reason to think 2018 will be just like 2016.

Sure we are polarized but candidates, level of office, campaigns, circumstances and climate do matter.

[jamestroll]

Hopefully, Trump's presidency won't be successful

You are such a hack with endless optimism. Also, if Nebraska is a toss-up, then why is Utah safe when there could be a split Republican base (a possibility I'm scared of).

If Gop vote is split and Trump remains unpopular with Mormons UTAH is actually the Democrats best chance to pick up a seat in 2018.

So long as McAdams or potentially Matheson run. But obviously this will be another Alaska 2008.