IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[TheLaRocca]

(1) this does not mean Trump wins (lol) just means what I've LONG said that the midwest is closer then people think. lmfao.
(2) Trump is obviously easily going to win Iowa.

end of discussion lmfao.

[TheLaRocca]

I can buy this and still buy a Biden landslide nationally, it would just mean 2016 in Iowa wasn't a fluke and rural voters are seriously going to become problems for Democrats.

lol I and INDYREP have been trying to tell this entire forum this for like 5 months...

Biden won't be winning MI/WI/PA by more than 5.

The swing in this election is coming from the SUNBELT, not the RUSTBELT.

[TheLaRocca]

This forum thought for months that Biden was winning Michigan by 15%.

Lmfao.

[TheLaRocca]

This forum thought for months that Biden was winning Michigan by 15%.

Lmfao.

Ayo this man thinks Trump has a chance in Michigan

He does lol.

I don't think he wins the state but it's going to be close.

I've said Biden +3-4 for months in that state. Only thing saving Biden is the suburbs.

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Biden is polling better in Arizona than Pennsylvania lol.

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Its a rear guard action at best with non-college whites. In some states, he will regain some lost ground like parts of WI, MI and PA (SCRANTON!!!!), but we aren't going back to the days of non-college whites voting less R then College educated whites.

Yeah, non-college whites aren't gonna become a titanium D force that will turn Pennsylvania blue (non-Atlas colors) for a thousand years, but they're a big factor in why Clinton got murdered in this part of the country, and why the Midwest isn't a lost cause for the vice president.

Biden is doing better with non-college Whites in areas like SCRANTON, BUFFALO, and likely Youngstown.

These types are very different from rural small town Whites along the Mississippi (of which the DONALD is still very strong with obviously).

[TheLaRocca]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

[TheLaRocca]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

A vote which almost nobody showed up to. In the middle of a pandemic. Which is denied or ignored primarily by Trump supporters. It’s amazing Biden’s support was even that high given all that.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322686184385110016