Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CityofSinners]

I won't be surprised if the russian retreat from Kherson ends in a disaster. The bridges are destroyed and using ships to evacuate 20-30 thousand soldiers while under long range artillary fire is a huge challenge.
Wouldn't be surprised if the last few thousand russian soldiers get overrun and taken captive.

[CityofSinners]

One of the biggest question for me is how many people Russia can lose until there are serious problems.
There must be some point at which russian loses get so big that there is widespread mutiny and protests. I have no idea if that happens at 300k killed or 500k.

Almost no modern conflict has ended because one side ran out of soliders to fight with. Moral almost always collapsed long before that.


There are common comparison to the 8 million men the soviets lost in WW2. Which IMO is not a very helpful comparison. Russia now has a lot less manpower and their population is much less invested in the current conflict.

[CityofSinners]

It is too early to assess if the counter offensive is a sucess or a failure. The 2022 Kherson counteroffensive was offically started on 29 August 2022 but preparations started before that. It took until 11 November to liberate Kherson city.

During that time the Ukranian offensive stalled more then a few times. In the end cutting off russian supply lines was the determining factor, not territorial gains.

This counteroffensive could fizzle out. Or only minor gains are posted until russians suddenly withdraw from a lot of territory because their supplies and reserve forces are exhausted.

To assess the sucess of this operation, looking at logistics and how much reserves both side use is more informative then territorial gains.

[CityofSinners]

Fully 1/3 of the posts in this thread over the last month are by one person, who does not even write proper posts, he just does a daily dump of every single link/image/tweet from his news feed.

Not only is it spam, it also prohibits any real conversation by breaking up any attempt at dialogue with the clutter of a bunch of enormous images and tweet embeds.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?  It is just spam.  Endless, endless, spam.

While I also find it annoying, blocking that specific poster is enough for me.

[CityofSinners]

Even with these huge numbers of lost tanks/BMPs Russia won't run out anytime soon. They have the ability to refurbish Soviet-era vehicles and produce some new ones.

I would look more into the loss of artillery/helicopters/aircraft. Those are harder to replace and without them any offensive gets even harder.

[CityofSinners]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks.

The original message didn't say killed but loss of manpower. Which is commonly used for both killed, wounded and captured. Which makes the 10k number high but not implausible considering how little russians care about their low quality soldiers.