GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[LostFellow]

Gonna also give an aggressive prediction of a 55-45 Warnock win.

Voted early today in an area that's ~60-40 D-R, and while voting during the late afternoon (as I did) is always going to be slightly biased towards left-wing demographics, the crowd today was significantly younger and more diverse than any I've ever seen. Seems like there's justifiably just very little enthusiasm in the Walker camp.

[LostFellow]

Cobb on MSNBC is probably a tabulation error. Margin is certainly not possible.

[LostFellow]

Needle has jumped to Warnock +1.8. Seems to be adjusting to strong metro ATL margins for Warnock. Call me foolish, but I honestly still think it leans too far towards Walker. Currently they're predicting the Gwinnett and Chatham (Savannah) E-Day vote to be near even. While that could happen, it still seems not so plausible.

[LostFellow]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

You joke, but a county like Pickens being 30k population rather than 3k population is exactly why Democrats haven't been able to just sweep the state based on Atlanta and mid size city margins. The rurals in some parts of the eastern US are much denser than the literal empty rurals out west--compare Georgia and North Carolina to Washington and Oregon

[LostFellow]

Walker improving on his margins from November in many rural counties yet being on track to lose by nearly 3x his November statewide margin really tells you everything you need to know about this state (and the nation as a whole sans Florida, honestly).

Imo something quite stark is that as an aggregate, the southern rurals seem to have actually swung towards Warnock. It seems that many counties initially reported as finished early in the evening giving a red mirage of an R swing like Washington Baldwin County actually had some mail ballots left, ending up with a D swing. The more populous north Georgia rurals are a different story though so far. Definitely can notice here an obvious racial polarization effect where North Georgia doesn't even have the small energized black base that D's are turning out exceptionally well.

[LostFellow]

I miss this Georgia:




The Reagan/Bush southern coalition was so awesome and was when southern politics was at its peak

Back when Forsyth county literally banned anyone nonwhite from residing there!

[LostFellow]

Turnout differentials are quite an obvious reason to explain shifts between the GE and Runoff imo.

• In the North GA rurals, Dems are heavily reliant on the Hispanic and youth vote. Hispanic turnout was modestly down since the GE, and youth turnout was slightly down.
• In the northern GA burbs, the Kemp GE -> no vote affect was the strongest, leading to Dem shifts.
• In the ATL core and southern burbs, even including the southern halves of Cobb/Gwinett, black turnout was way up, leading to shifts towards Ds.
• In the midsize fall line and coastal cities (Augusta, Savannah, Macon, Columbus, Albany, Brunswick), these metros are essentially mini-Atlantas, so Black enthusiasm and the Kemp GE -> no vote effect swings these counties D.
• In the southern rurals, the blackest counties had pretty strong swings towards Warnock--the black belt swung D. Otherwise, it was a wash between black enthusiasm and general lower minority turnout patterns between the GE and runoffs.

No need to go into hypotheticals about Marcus Flowers.