GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1593343994041405442

[Atlas Force]

I think Warnock wins by at least 3 or 4 points. It just doesn't seem like there's a lot of Republican enthusiasm for the race, largely because of Walker's unpopularity and because it won't determine control of the Senate.

Also Republicans have the House now, so “vote for a check on Biden” doesn’t really work anymore as a reason to support/turn out for Walker.

[Atlas Force]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

Triage the state?  Seriously?  They only lost the Senate seats in 2020/21 due to lackluster incumbents and Trump's election lies driving down turnout in the runoffs.  If Warnock wins this year, it will be because the GOP ran a truly terrible candidate.  Even if that happens and the Democrats still control both Senate seats, the GOP will still hold every row office, solid majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and 9 of the 14 House seats. 

True but the latter is due to gerrymandering.

And incumbency probably helped them a lot with holding the row offices this year.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/christos_ioa/status/1598174684184707072

[Atlas Force]

This seat would mean Dems could be more confident in retaining control through the 2024 election, because a single vacancy in a state with an R governor controls appointments would no longer flip the chamber.

It could also have a significant impact on 2024.  In the event that election was an R blowout, they would need to win 11 seats for a supermajority. There are currently exactly 10 senate seats up in states where Trump won or came within 5% in 2016.  A Warnock win would mean R's would have to win VA or NM for a supermajority (along with MN and ME, which haven't really been close in any election since 2016).

Only Manchin and Shaheen are above the age of

Did you forget to finish the sentence?

[Atlas Force]

This seat would mean Dems could be more confident in retaining control through the 2024 election, because a single vacancy in a state with an R governor controls appointments would no longer flip the chamber.

It could also have a significant impact on 2024.  In the event that election was an R blowout, they would need to win 11 seats for a supermajority. There are currently exactly 10 senate seats up in states where Trump won or came within 5% in 2016.  A Warnock win would mean R's would have to win VA or NM for a supermajority (along with MN and ME, which haven't really been close in any election since 2016).

Only Manchin and Shaheen are above the age of

Did you forget to finish the sentence?

Oh yeah. Manchin, Shaheen, and the VT Senators will all be above 70. Brown turns 70 before his term ends though.

Alright then

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600173572650958848?cxt=HHwWgICgjdzY-rQsAA...

[Atlas Force]

The more elections I live through, the more I grow to hate the Wassermans of the world. Everything about that schtick is bleh

What do you mean by “that schtick” exactly?

[Atlas Force]

Chatahoochie County, 93% in. Walker leads 52-48 tonight. Was Walker 53-45 in November.

Trump+13 county btw

[Atlas Force]

Probably  Warlock now.

>Warlock

[Atlas Force]

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

This maybe?
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600302528595300352

How big is that county?

57,685 people live there as of 2018 according to Wikipedia

[Atlas Force]

Also worth noting, outside of Atlanta the D areas are still reporting slowly. Dougherty is at under 50% in, Muskogee still has 30% to go, Chatham has roughly half, etc...

very bloomer feeling here.

Bloomer?

[Atlas Force]

Also worth noting, outside of Atlanta the D areas are still reporting slowly. Dougherty is at under 50% in, Muskogee still has 30% to go, Chatham has roughly half, etc...

very bloomer feeling here.

Bloomer?

Opposite of Doomer

Aight

[Atlas Force]

DeKalb just came in, Warnock 51-49 statewide now.

For a second I read that as the DeKalb drop came in Warnock 51-49 and freaked out

Same lol

[Atlas Force]

Dougherty county, home of Albany, now fully reporting. Went from Warnock +41 to Warnock -43.

Did you mean to type a plus

[Atlas Force]

This is not over. Check out the resistance in northern France. If that's replicated in Italy and Poland, we could win.

LMAO

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1600311811869650944

[Atlas Force]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.

This is actually the reverse of how it used to be. Traditionally in the southern states, vampires were able to assimilate will within society and became super wealthy (their pale skin helped) However they like to live in urban and suburban areas because they need humans to feed on for bloodmeals. Vampires traditionally were Republican due to their wealth but as suburbs have trended D so have vampires. I think Hillary was the first to win the vampire vote in Georgia by a plurality since Carter.

Werewolves on the other hand are far more rural due to historic marginalization and are far less well off/working class. They traditionally have voted like other minorities although recently the werewolf community has begun to trend right rapidly. While still D on the net, Walker needs to cut those margins from 2020 honestly due to vampire bleeding.

At this point both groups vote more D than humans but that could change.

I reposted this in the Atlas Hilarity thread in Forum Community btw: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259314.msg8902917#msg8902917

[Atlas Force]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.

This is actually the reverse of how it used to be. Traditionally in the southern states, vampires were able to assimilate will within society and became super wealthy (their pale skin helped) However they like to live in urban and suburban areas because they need humans to feed on for bloodmeals. Vampires traditionally were Republican due to their wealth but as suburbs have trended D so have vampires. I think Hillary was the first to win the vampire vote in Georgia by a plurality since Carter.

Werewolves on the other hand are far more rural due to historic marginalization and are far less well off/working class. They traditionally have voted like other minorities although recently the werewolf community has begun to trend right rapidly. While still D on the net, Walker needs to cut those margins from 2020 honestly due to vampire bleeding.

At this point both groups vote more D than humans but that could change.

I reposted this in the Atlas Hilarity thread in Forum Community btw: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259314.msg8902917#msg8902917

Nice. It belongs there. Incredible post, really.

Thank you!

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600317857081872384?s=20&t=GjMElbK_kCy...

[Atlas Force]

Houston done (pronounced how-ston) Warner Robins.


Margin shifts from 55-43 Walker to 54-46 Walker lol. Warnock lost about 1K from November, Walker, 3K.

[Atlas Force]

^^
^^^

Damn posted at the same time

[Atlas Force]

Cherokee Done:

Warnock lost under 3K votes from November
Walker lost 9K.

[Atlas Force]

Warnock’s win now official according to Wikipedia.

They also say Warnock’s the first Dem to win a full term in this seat since Wyche Fowler back in 1986.