2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[JG]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.

But even if Fox does, aren't most, if not almost all, of their viewers already locked in for the Republicans?

[JG]

I'm not sure how WaPo ends up with +7/8 nationally after getting D+4 in 70 battleground districts that Trump won by *15* on average.

Because the biggest shifts seem to be concentrated in the more competitive districts. Solidly blue districts are not getting much more blue, and solidly red districts are probably not getting much less red. We are not dealing with a uniform national swing.

This is actually really good news, because it suggests Democrats could (emphasis on could, we won't know until Tuesday) win the House without the large national majority that seemed required a few months ago.

And we do see this at the senate level, where blue-state democrats like Gillibrand, Murphy or Warren do barely even better than purple-states like Casey, Brown or Stabenow.

[JG]

I know next to nothing about fundraising, but isn't Golden's number on the weaker side? Or isn't it not that bad considering I assume the media market in ME-2 must be pretty cheap?