2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[JG]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

[JG]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

The enthusiasm gap is everything



Compare the volatility of the 2010 GCB polling to the stability of the enthusiasm gap polling:

GCB:



Enthusiasm:

Thanks! It really looks like that all the focus on the generic ballot might be a bit misplaced then.

[JG]

Other points from the Monmouth Poll:
- No difference in voting preference between All Adults and Registered Voters
- Democrats have a 13 point lead in swing counties (won by either Trump or Hillary by less than 10 points)
- Democrats are winning over more Republicans (5%) and Conservatives (23%) than Republicans are Democrats (1%) and Liberals (8%)
- Republicans are winning men by 1 point, Democrats are winning women by 13 points
- Tax plan is unpopular, 34-41, with a plurality in the strongly dissapprove camp

How can anyone self-identify as liberal and vote for the republicans is beyond me.

[JG]

Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot (Quinnipiac):

51% Democratic
40% Republican

Motivation to Vote: More - Less - Same
Democrats: 57 - 4 - 39
Republicans: 39 - 4 - 57

Source

Are there other Virginia seats that could flip with numbers like these?