Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[JG]

I really hope Fortin wins his seat - I'd love for a social democratic federalist party to rise in Quebec. I've always supported the Quebec Liberals because I oppose souveranism.

[JG]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

I think most of them would probably abstrain if they had to pick between the two. The new Mainstreet poll shows the Quebec NDP and the Quebec conservative party polling as high as the CAQ with anglos (8%). Considering how small and non-significant these parties are right now, it shows how much anglos don't want to vote for either the CAQ or PQ.

[JG]

New LCN/Léger poll:

CAQ: 37%
PLQ: 28%
PQ: 19%
QS: 9%

[JG]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Yeah, I agree. Unfortunately, QS winning Taschereau is a pipe dream.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

[JG]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

Isn't that basically the PQ base region? Working class small town Quebec?

Yes. If they are losing that big in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean , they are pretty much done.

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2018/08/01/campagne-estivale-oui-mais-pas-trop

Apparently, Liberals strategists have stopped hoping Lisée would bounce back and take support away from the CAQ and will actively go after vulnerable ridings like Bonaventure (in Gaspésie) and Lac-Saint-Jean. Bonaventure might be a bit more swingier, but PQ have hold Lac Saint-Jean since 1976 and Cloutier won it with 44% in 2014. If Liberals's internal numbers are showing them there is a chance they might even win it, then it's another sign that PQ is in deep trouble.

[JG]

I'm annoyed by how little polling we are getting. Before the campaign starts, we would get one or two polls a week basically showing the same results every time and since the campaign started, we probably got one or two non-Mainstreet polls.

[JG]

New Main Street/Le Soleil Poll
CAQ - 32,2%
PLQ - 27,2%
PQ - 21,1%
QS - 15,7%

[JG]

Mainstreet's numbers might be a bit too generous to QS, but Lisée could definitely lose his seat.

I'm surprised at how weak the CAQ is in Roberval. I was expecting them to be quite close to Couillard.

[JG]

TLDR of the debate: Legault and Lisee accused Couillard of heartlessness on healthcare and special needs education, Couillard/Lisee accused Legault on immigration. Legault said we're sick of Couillard's lecturing, lots of angry crosstalk which is why I tuned out after an hour. The winner was a female voter who asked about eldercare in the first segment and said no one answered her question.

What a boring debate. Honestly, this campaign might be one of the least inspiring political campaigns ever.

[JG]

Dumont column on Couillard's declaration that immigration was the ballot question. He thinks most likely Couillard wants to lose on a deeply held principle without compromising his beliefs in a desperate attempt to salvage a lost election.

Not sure it was that much of a misstep considering how out of his depth Legault seems to be when it comes to immigration.

[JG]

Parti 51 proposes Quebec join the US and becomes the 51st state. It's running 5 candidates. The leader is a candidate in Beauce-Sud and he has signs.

http://www.coolfm.biz/nouvelle/66-quebec-51-bien-affiche-dans-beauce-sud

How very 1838 of them.

[JG]

Legault is running such an awful campaign.

[JG]

NPDQ: 68%
PLQ: 67%
PVQ: 65%
QS: 61%
PQ: 57%
CAQ: 48%
PCQ: 35%

Unfortunately, there might not be a candidate running in my riding for the NPDQ. I did give my signature for her to make it on the ballot, but I haven't heard anything about her since, so I'll probably end up voting for the PLQ. Anyway, it's not like it will matter much since my riding is safe CAQ.

[JG]

New Crop-Cogeco Poll

PLQ - 37%
CAQ - 30%
PQ  - 16%
QS - 14%

The guy from Qc125, however, brings up that Crop has a strong house effect for PLQ and a mild one in favor of the CAQ. If adjusted for last year's house effect, the numbers look like:

PLQ - 33%
CAQ - 28%
PQ  - 19,5%
QS - 15%

[JG]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

[JG]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

What did he do?

At last night's debate, while he was having a face off with Massé about healthcare, he went on a bizarre rant about how Massé wasn't the real leader of QS (and that neither was Nadeau-Dubois) and implied she shouldn't be there because it's a leaders' debate. He also seemed to imply that QS was led by a shadowy figure (Of course, his fans ate it up by ranting on facebook about the politburo's true leader). He ignored repeatedly the moderator asking him to stay on topic while pushing that point again and again in a really weirdly agressive and slightly unhinged way. And times and times again during the debate, he had to be called back to order. He was very agressive and he went off topic once again in a face off with Legault and would just not let it go. Now, reading the covering, it seems news are more focusing on the Couillard-Legault face off since they're the front runnings, so my political suicide comment was a bit an over statement, but it was still an awful debate performance, especially compared to the ones he had on monday and last thursday. Social medias were buzzing about how he looked like someone who wanted to lose his election and how he killed any momentum and goodwill he could have been gaining in the past few days.

[JG]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.

[JG]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.

Even if we ignore the weird "Who is Masse's puppetmaster line", the PQ's "ZOMG MARXISM!!!" attack doesn't make any sense. The PQ's right has already gone over to the CAQ, so it's a completely ineffective line of attack among the remaining PQ waverers.

Yes, I'm really not sure what his the goal of all those attacks. He should be going after CAQ's voters, not QS's. Most of the support PQ lost over the past few years went over to the CAQ, not QS. And I'm really not sure how comparing QS to Soviet Russia is supposed to make those now CAQ-supporting voters go back to PQ.

[JG]

New Ipsos-La Presse-Global News poll:

PLQ - 30%
CAQ - 30% (-6)
PQ - 20%(+2)
QS - 17%(+5)

Results point toward a CAQ minority government, with a very strong possibility that the PLQ might win the popular vote.

[JG]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

Important to note that the last time Ipsos polled was in August, so I think these results are more just a combination of all the September activities. September saw the CAQ drop in favor of PLQ and PQ.

Also, where are my weekly pollsters- mainstreet, Leger, etc? Since debate three, the only polls released have been a new pollster with no past results to compare it to, and this, which just captures the September movement. I want to know the effects of debate three!

Jean-Marc Léger said on twitter that they were doing their final poll of the campaign right now. I assume the results will be out by friday or saturday.

[JG]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

[JG]

Solitaire has won their first non-Montreal seat, in Taschereau

Haha this is a great autocorrect.

Hey; I warned you about Taschereau. ;-)

Maybe not in Quebec City, but I'm wondering whether a motivational factor (however token) behind the QS victories in Sherbrooke and Rouyn et al was their being represented by the NPD federally.

Oh, and Ungava wins the Sask-Humboldt '04/Inverness Skye & Lochaber '92 award for being won with barely a quarter of the vote...

Well, it helps to know that it IS POSSIBLE for a left wing party to win. Sherbrooke being a college town helps. Rouyn-Noranda is a bit more interesting, considering it is a working class/mining city, much like a typical city in Northern Ontario. QS's brand of being bobo leftists is not a good fit on paper for a riding like that, but I suppose their economic arguments resonated with them.

Rouyn-Noranda also has an university (Université du Québec en Abitibi) and, according to Radio-Canada, QS had a huge get out the vote operation around that area.

[JG]

Looking at those numbers by regions make me think that the poll showing that the Liberals only got 12% of the francophone vote just can't be true.