Is New York Trending Repubican

[Nyssus]

New York will continue to trend R until the next realignment. NYC is growing, albeit at a fairly slow rate. Manhattan continues to trend D, while the other boroughs have a slight R trend. Dems are close to maxing out in Manhattan and the Bronx. However, there is still room for them to increase their vote percentages in Nassau and Westchester, two wealthy counties that are still trending D. Suffolk County, which encompasses the majority of Long Island, including the Hamptons, is trending R.

As a resident of Upstate, I've experienced our decline firsthand - cities that were once prosperous (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, etc.) are quickly losing population. Factories are closing, corporations are leaving the region, and the people generally feel that the governments of Albany and Washington are out-of-touch with their problems. Many counties that had not voted Republican in over a decade voted for Trump. We're becoming more and more like the Midwest, both economically and demographically. Many suburbs that once voted Democratic are now voting Republican.

This doesn't mean that New York will vote Republican in 10 years, or even 20 years. The state as a whole may swing D in 2020. However, Upstate will continue to lose population, NYC will grow slowly, and the margin will begin to narrow significantly. A Democrat who would normally get ~60% of the popular vote in New York may only get ~55% of the vote in 10 or 15 years. NYC, Nassau, and Westchester will keep NY in the D column for the next decade or two. However, over the long term, New York may become a swing state or even vote Republican (I'm talking 30-60+ years in the future).