Éminence grise - a 2020 Election Game (Rules, Signups, and OOC)

[terp40hitch]

Since this will start in a few weeks then I will sign up as Carly Fiorina

[terp40hitch]

Since this will start in a few weeks then I will sign up as Carly Fiorina

Actually can I take Larry Hogan

[terp40hitch]

By any chance can I get the final results in Maryland or just wether it was close or comfortable or landslide

[terp40hitch]

Hogan For America

Change America

Hogan Announcement Speech

Baltimore, Maryland Attendence 700 (Supporters, Staff and Press)

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[terp40hitch]

Can I switch to Justin Amash?

[terp40hitch]

Is this game still happening?

Yes. It will begin on this Saturday, if that’s alright with everyone.

If you can make the turns last a bit longer per turn, that's fine with me.

I don't want to hold everyone up repeatedly asking for extensions.

I would’ve good with longer turns

[terp40hitch]

Im bigly triggered by Pochahontos

Elizabeth Warren may be part Native American, but Pocahontas she ain't.

Also, that's a really racist statement.

I agree that Pocahontas is racist but I think the problem is that Warren is not a Native American, not that she is a Native American like she claims

[terp40hitch]

Can I have an extension till tomorrow

[terp40hitch]

Can I have an extension till tomorrow

Turn ends this evening, but you can post until tomorrow morning (9 AM or so. )

Thank you!

[terp40hitch]

Prediction:
Blue: Haslam
Red: Sharipo
Green: Scalise
Yellow: Amash
Gray: Abbott

[terp40hitch]

Prediction:
Blue: Haslam
Red: Sharipo
Green: Scalise
Yellow: Amash
Gray: Abbott

Scalise has yet to campaign and I've chatted with Transit he has stated that he might drop out. Walker would probably be the one in Green. also, I don't think Conservative heavy Iowa would go for a Libertarian like Amash unless he Does a MAJOR Shift right. IMO, Haslam would be able to sweep much of the South, Walker sweeps Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Montana, maybe a few more states, Shapiro captures many western states except Utah while Amash does well in Michigan, and New England except in NH. WV will be close between Haslam and Shapiro though.

Ron Paul got within 5% of winning Iowa in 2012 and only the northwest part of the state is the heavily conservative part. If Haslam wants to win in Iowa then he has to overperform in the Des Moine sub. If Greg Abbott wants to win Iowa then he has to win the Evangelical vote in the Northwest and close the gap between him and Haslam in Council Bluff. Now if Amash wants to win he just needs to win in the college towns around Iowa City and let the conservative vote be split between Abbott, Scalise, and Sharipo and then he will win.

Also, Libertarians do very well in Nevada, Washington, Vermont, and Minnesota as you can tell when looking at where Ron Paul did the best in 2012 and 2008 and where Gary Johnson overperformed in 2016. Sharipo's best bet for winning the nomination is focusing on later states instead of early states like California, New York and Texas where he would perform much better because of the unusually high conservative primary turnout in those states and because of the high amount of college students.

Haslam will probably not sweep the south because he is a moderate and the south is heavily conservative. Scalise is the most conservative candidate in the race other than Abbott but with Abbott not campaigning I don't presume he will stay in the race which would give Scalise alot more supporters.

Now in West Virginia, I am predicting a comfortable win from Shapiro because only he is the populist except for Amash who isn't spending any money there and West Virginia is a very populist state.

[terp40hitch]

Bored. Anyone wants to do Haslam v Kaine that isn't me or Jason Hitchcock?

I will make a map later but it will be very, very close and it will really depend if Amash goes Libertarian and if there is an economic crisis

[terp40hitch]

Prediction:
Blue: Haslam
Red: Sharipo
Green: Scalise
Yellow: Amash
Gray: Abbott

I think Amash is more likely to win New Hampshire than Iowa, honestly...

Anyone want to do one for the Democratic primary?

I would do a Democratic primary but I just don't know enough about the state's voting blocks other than race and religion

[terp40hitch]

If the Race Stays the Same

Tim Kaine: 48.3%
Bill Haslam: 47.9%
Other/Unsure: 5.4%

If Amash runs as a Libertarian

Tim Kaine: 47.9%
Bill Haslam: 44.6%
Justin Amash: 6.1%
Unsure/Other: 1.4%

If there is an economic crisis

Bill Haslam: 51.4%
Tim Kaine: 45.3%
Unsure/Other: 3.3%

[terp40hitch]

I doubt a recession happens

That’s probably what Bush thought in 2007

[terp40hitch]

Will there be a debate this turn?

[terp40hitch]

Tim Kaine ad will probably end up hurting him

I mean that ad is more extreme than Johnson's daisy ad in 1964. That ad basically says that if Warren's president that all humanity will die.

[terp40hitch]

Tim Kaine ad will probably end up hurting him

I mean that ad is more extreme than Johnson's daisy ad in 1964. That ad basically says that if Warren's president that all humanity will die.

Johnson's daisy ad was successful though lol

the more extreme the ad, the harder it'll hit!

The harder it hurts Warren but it will end up hurting Kaine. Negative ads always are a two-way street where it drives up both of their favorabilities. This is what happened in the Tennesee Gov. race where Boyd was able to drive up the negatives of his opponents but it hurt him more. This is what I predict will happen to Kaine.

[terp40hitch]

Dem. Prediction:
Blue: Warren
Red: Kaine
Dark Red: Gabbard
Green: Brown

Prediction: Democrats go to contested convection

[terp40hitch]

GOP Primary Predictions:
30% Light: Final Vote between 0%-5%
50% Medium: Final Vote between 5%-10%
70% Dark: Final Vote between 10%+

Gray: Walker
Green: Amash
Yellow: Shapiro
Red: Scalise
Blue: Haslam

[terp40hitch]

GOP Primary Predictions:
30% Light: Final Vote between 0%-5%
50% Medium: Final Vote between 5%-10%
70% Dark: Final Vote between 10%+

Gray Orange: Walker
Green: Amash
Yellow: Shapiro
Red: Scalise
Blue: Haslam

contested convention?

hard to tell at this point but if it does happen it won't be like the Democrat primary. At a Democratic contested convention, it will take a few ballots because Kaine is only a little favored by the DNC establishment but not enough to give him the nomination on the first ballot.

On the Republican side, the RNC and establishment is heavily favoring Haslam which would probably help give him the nomination within the first two ballots.

[terp40hitch]

Lol, Elizabeth Warren just kidnapping 75 kids to eat thanksgiving dinner with her

[terp40hitch]

Lol, Elizabeth Warren just kidnapping 75 kids to eat thanksgiving dinner with her

It's Mrs. Steal yo kids!

The way they randomly select the kids is the kid that gets in the black van for candy

[terp40hitch]

Lol, Elizabeth Warren just kidnapping 75 kids to eat thanksgiving dinner with her

Kidnapping is a very strong term.

How do you know their parents didn't approve this?

I know Warrens not kidnapping but the first thought that came to my mind when I read that was that Warren’s Campaigns was just taking a bunch of school buses to pick up kids