Divison 2020 Election Game (Game Thread)

[terp40hitch]

Turn 8

March 13th to March 26th

In the News!

Brown's Abuse Allegations Come Back/b]

Biden's surrogate in LA attacked Brown for his abuse allegations but it became a double-edged sword with both Biden and Brown being hurt. If Biden didn't bring up the allegations then it would have been a much closer race in states like Michigan and Nebaska

Brokerd Convection?

For the first time, five thirty eight lowered its chance of the Democrats having a brokerd convection from low 40's to 38.7% because of Brown's delegate lead

RCP Trump Approval Rating

Disapprove: 53%

Approve: 41%

Unsure: 6%

RCP General Election Polling

Mike Pence (R): 43%

Generic Democrat (D): 43%

Mark Cuban (I): 3%

Unsure: 11%

Poll of GOP Voters: Do you support Mike Pence?

Yes: 84%

No: 16%

RCP Democrat National Polling

Kristen Gillibrand: 26%

Joe Biden: 22%

Sherrod Brown: 22%

Joaquin Castro: 15%

Derek Jeter: 9%

Unsure: 6%

RCP State Democrat National Polling

Florida

Joe Biden: 22%

Joaquin Castro: 21%

Derek Jeter: 21%

Kristen Gillibrand: 20%

Sherrod Brown: 16%

Illinios

Joe Biden: 27%

Sherrod Brown: 27%

Kristen Gillibrand: 26%

Joaquin Castro: 14%

Derek Jeter: 6%

Missouri

Sherrod Brown: 32%

Derek Jeter: 23%

Joe Biden: 22%

Joaquin Castro: 12%

Kristen: 11%

North Carolina

Joe Biden: 28%

Kristen Gillibrand: 24%

Sherrod Brown: 23%

Derek Jeter: 15%

Joaquin Castro: 10%

Ohio

Sherrod Brown: 39%

Joe Biden: 31%

Kristen Gillibrand: 21%

Joaquin Castro: 7%

Derek Jeter: 2%

Arizona

Joaquin Castro: 34%

Joe Biden: 31%

Kristen Gillibrand: 19%

Derek Jeter: 14%

Sherrod Brown: 6%

Idaho

Joe Biden: 26%

Derek Jeter: 26%

Sherrod Brown: 23%

Kristen Gillibrand: 16%

Joaquin Castro: 9%

Utah

Derek Jeter: 41%

Joe Biden: 39%

Sherrod Brown: 16%

Kristen Gillibrand: 3%

Joaquin Castro: 1%

Alaska

Derek Jeter: 52%

Joe Biden: 28%

Sherrod Brown: 17%

Kristen Gillibrand: 3%

Joaquin Castro: 0%

Hawaii

Joe Biden: 48%

Joaquin Castro: 22%

Kristen Gillibrand: 17%

Derek Jeter: 7%

Sherrod Brown: 6%

Washington

Derek Jeter: 31%

Joe Biden: 29%

Kristen Gillibrand: 21%

Sherrod Brown: 13%

Joaquin Castro: 6%

Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Wensday night, at 8:59:59 PM Eastern Time. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence. Extensions will be given for the requester and the requester only, not for the field at large, so if you need an extension, PM me.

Messaging is key! This turn will be all about setting up your ground game and building your coalition, so make sure to write your speeches/schedule accordingly! Speaking of which...

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run three advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run two advertisements, and if you poll below 10% but above 5%, then you can run one advertisement!

[terp40hitch]

General Election Polling with Candidates

Mike Pence vs Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown: 46.7% (251)

Mike Pence: 44.2% (181)

Mark Cuban: 2.4%

Mike Pence vs Joe Biden

Joe Biden: 45.6% (231)

Mike Pence: 45.2% (175)

Mark Cuban: 4.7%

Mike Pence vs Kristen Gillibrand

Kristen Gillibrand: 48.6% (209)

Mike Pence: 44.8% (201)

Mark Cuban: 3.7%

Mike Pence vs Joaquin Castro

Joaquin Castro: 44.3% (226)

Mike Pence: 44.2% (180)

Mark Cuban: 1.4%

Mike Pence vs Derek Jeter

Mike Pence: 47.6% (244)

Derek Jeter: 45.3% (203)

Mark Cuban: 6.7%

[terp40hitch]

terp40hitch, I think that I sent to you my shortlist of potential VP picks, right? Have you forgot to put it among the news at the beginning of the turn? Unless you just decided to do it at the beginning of the next one during which I'm planning to announce my VP selection.

It will be at the start of the next turn and I believe if no extensions are asked for that the coverage will start tonight

[terp40hitch]

Marc Caputo: It is 7:00 pm on the eastern coast and the first polls are closed in Florida. We have our first results coming in but we cannot call the election till 8:00 pm when the rest of the polls close. Let's look at the results:

Florida Primary Results (0.7%)

Joaquin Castro: 22%

Joe Biden: 22%

Kristen Gillibrand: 21%

Derek Jeter: 20%

Sherrod Brown: 15%

Marc Caputo: Right now, Castro is leading by a very small margin over Biden. Now let's look at which areas the candidates need to win tonight with taking a look at the 2018 Democratic primary where Gwen Graham barely won over Sanders backed candidate Andrew Gillum who surged in the final days and we will also take a look at the 2016 Democratic primary where Clinton won overwhelmingly.

Marc Caputo: First, let's talk about the frontrunner right now. Castro ran a very good campaign up to the primary tonight with a successful bus tour but he did have a set back when his campaign accidentally accounted that Arizona senator Krysten Sinema endorsed him while she actually endorsed Sherrod Brown. Castro hopes he can put that behind him tonight as he needs a victory in Florida which is a Hispanic dominated area. Castro needs to win all the areas in green on the right which were Phillip Levine counties and some of the most Hispanic counties. Castro doesn't just need to win those areas but he also has to outperform in those areas by at least 2-3% or more if he doesn't win the next few counties I am about to list. Second, Castro needs to flip Miami-Dade county which went for Andrew Gillum two years ago and Castro needs to also flip the Palm Beach County which also went to Gillum two years ago. Third, Castro needs to improve on Levine's 2018 performance in the panhandle where he was getting around 8%-10%. Castro needs to at least be winning 15% in these counties or you will see a sharp drop in Castro percentage at 8:00 pm when the panhandle closes its polls.

Now, second right now is Biden who looking at the 2016 and 2018 map would have a good chance at winning but he is splitting the working class vote with Brown which was really helpful to Clinton in 2016 in her victory. If you are going to be seeing a Biden victory it is going be because of three things. One, Brown's vote has to be kept under 15% or that working class is very split which will hurt the chances of a Biden victory. Second, Biden path to victory lies in the panhandle. Biden needs to do very well in the rest of the state which will be around 20% but once you go to the panhandle, Biden needs to close not only the gap but also flip some counties that Gillum and Sanders won in 2018 and 2016 or else Biden will have another tough competitor in Jeter. Third, Biden needs to bring out the African-American vote especially in Tallahassee. If Biden can do two of those three things then you will be seeing a Biden victory in Florida.

Third is Gillibrand who is also in a good position tonight especially with some very successful advertisements from the campaign. Gillibrand doesn't have any certain area she needs to overperform in she just needs to hope that Biden and Jeter do poorly in the panhandle and Castro isn't able to flip former Levine counties. Though, Gillibrand needs to overperform in the panhandle if Biden is underperforming or that means that either Castro is doing very well or Jeter is which could spell disaster for her Florida effort.

Right at this moment, Jeter is in a close fourth place but I don't think that will last especially once the panhandle closes. Jeter like the other four are well positioned for first place but Jeter does have a very clear path to victory considering how well Gillum did four years earlier and considering that Gillibrand and Biden are splitting the Graham, Greene and King vote from four years earlier. Jeter needs to hold onto a lot of the Gillum counties but he can sacrifice a few like Tallahassee which will probably go for Biden but the counties he cannot lose is the panhandle counties which will be his late-night surprise boost which helped both Gillum and Sanders in their election and he needs to hold onto Orange and Hillsbrough county if a win is in Jeter playbook toight.

Brown is in last and though he is close and may pull an upset many within the campaign are just trying to secure delegates. Brown may play the spoiler espically in the Panhadle where it is heavily white, working class voters which will be split between Biden and Brown.

Once again, Florida is too close to call and is right now being lead by Castro who has a little over 1,000 vote lead.

[terp40hitch]

Marc Caputo: Welcome back to Politico's live coverage of the 2020 primary election, with it being 7:30 pm we have more results in two key states of Ohio and North Carolina. In Ohio, Brown hopes to sweep his home state while his competitors are hoping to close the gap. In North Carolina, it is a close race between three candidates, Brown, Biden and Gillibrand with both Castro and Jeter not too far behind. Both Biden and Gillibrand received endorsements from high power North Carolina politicians, we will have to see how that sways the results tonight, let's take a look:

North Carolina Primary Results (0.3%)

Kristen Gillibrand: 25%

Joe Biden: 23%

Sherrod Brown: 21%

Joaquin Castro: 17%

Derek Jeter: 14%

Marc Caputo: North Carolina is too early to call with the leaders being Gillibrand, Biden, and Brown

Ohio Primary Election Results (0.5%)

Sherrod Brown: 42%

Joe Biden: 26%

Kristen Gillibrand: 15%

Derek Jeter: 7%

Joaquin Castro: 4%

Marc Caputo: Sherrod Brown has won his home state of Ohio fending off tough challenges from Biden's campaign

Florida Primary Results (7.8%)

Joaquin Castro: 25%

Kristen Gillibrand: 22%

Joe Biden: 21%

Derek Jeter: 19%

Sherrod Brown: 13%

Marc Caputo: Florida remains too close to call but Castro has opened up a lead of 2-3%. This is mostly due to him being able to lead in Miami-Dade which has hurt Jeter but Castro has a tough battle with Jeter in Palm Beach county

[terp40hitch]

Marc Caputo: We have two more important states closing, Illinois and Missouri, but we are also watching Florida where officially all areas have closed their poll. Here are the results, look closely at Illinois where it has become an even tighter than expected race between Gillibrand and Biden with Brown very closely behind at least if you believe the latest polls.

Illinois Primary Results (0.6%)

Joe Biden: 26%

Kristen Gillibrand: 25%

Sherrod Brown: 25%

Derek Jeter: 14%

Joaquin Castro: 10%

Marc Caputo: Illinois is too close to call with Biden, Gillibrand, and Brown all within one point of each other. Gillibrand put a lot of effort into the state after a close race in Michigan believing that the momentum she built in the Midwest could help her prevail in Illinois. Still, Brown believes he has strong support in rural areas and in around the cities while Biden's campaign Illinois communtian director told me that they saw a surge in support in Chicago area which they believe will give them the victory.

Missouri Primary Results (0.2%)

Sherrod Brown: 29%

Derek Jeter: 22%

Joe Biden: 21%

Kristen Gillibrand: 15%

Joaquin Castro: 13%

Marc Caputo: Missouri has Brown in the lead but with our exit poll results, we believe that this race is too close to call. Now let's take a look at already closed polls in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

North Carolina Primary Results (4.6%)

Joe Biden: 25%

Kristen Gillibrand: 24%

Sherrod Brown: 22%

Joaquin Castro: 15%

Derek Jeter: 14%

Marc Caputo: North Carolina has become too close to call which is a change from too early to call

Ohio Primary Election Results (6.9%)

Sherrod Brown: 45%

Joe Biden: 24%

Kristen Gillibrand: 15%

Derek Jeter: 8%

Joaquin Castro: 2%

Florida Primary Results (15.6%)

Joaquin Castro: 22%

Joe Biden: 21%

Derek Jeter: 21%

Kristen Gillibrand: 19%

Sherrod Brown: 17%

Marc Caputo: With all polls closed, Florida remains in the too close to call column with a surge in Jeter and Brown votes which have made this primary a close five-way race. I just talked to the Brown state chairmen who earlier told me he doesn't see victory for Brown but that has changed. Now he is telling me that once all the votes are counted it could be a close race between the five candidates. Castro's advisors have also said that though the race is closer now they believe that they built up enough of a lead in the southern Florida area that they will win especially with a 3% lead right now in Miami-Dade County over Jeter.

[terp40hitch]

Marc Caputo: It is 9:00 pm on the eastern coast and we have another set of poll closings:

Arizona Primary Results (0.8%)

Joaquin Castro: 35%

Joe Biden: 24%

Sherrod Brown: 21%

Kristen Gillibrand: 16%

Derek Jeter: 4%

Marc Caputo: Even after an embarrassing week in Arizona, Castro was able to win in Arizona. Now let's look at the states that have polls that have already closed.

Missouri Primary Results (17.9%)

Sherrod Brown: 30%

Derek Jeter: 23%

Joe Biden: 20%

Kristen Gillibrand: 16%

Joaquin Castro: 11%

Marc Caputo: Brown has won Missouri over Jeter who is still just 7% below Brown

North Carolina Primary Results (27.4%)

Kristen Gillibrand: 24%

Joe Biden: 24%

Sherrod Brown: 24%

Joaquin Castro: 16%

Derek Jeter: 12%

Ohio Primary Election Results (31.4%)

Sherrod Brown: 48%

Joe Biden: 22%

Kristen Gillibrand: 15%

Derek Jeter: 6%

Joaquin Castro: 3%

Florida Primary Results (36.2%)

Derek Jeter: 21%

Joaquin Castro: 21%

Joe Biden: 20%

Kristen Gillibrand: 20%

Sherrod Brown: 17%

Marc Caputo: Jeter has just barely pulled a lead over Castro in Florida but it is still too close to call. This is a five-way race and it is going to be a race we watch throughout the night. Now let's closer at the Illinois race

Illinois Primary Results (12.4%)

Sherrod Brown: 25%

Kristen Gillibrand: 24%

Joe Biden: 24%

Derek Jeter: 15%

Joaquin Castro: 12%

Marc Caputo: Brown has started to pull the lead over Gillibrand and Biden but it is still within one percent. Jeter and Castro also are pulling higher than expected but Castro is still 3% under 15%. Now let's look closer at the results:

Marc Caputo: First, I am bringing up the results of the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary. On the left, it is a map of Chicago while the right is the statewide results. First, let's look at Brown's chances at winning the state. Brown needs to win in the rural areas around the border of Missouri and Indiana but he can't just win that he also needs to win around the suburban areas around Springfield and Chicago. Brown needs to win Kennedy's area in 2018 plus flip some of the Rauner leaning counties. If Brown is able to carry the rural, more conservative counties plus run up the numbers around the city areas even if Biden or Gillibrand, in the end, wins those cities then Brown will win.

Second right now is Gillibrand. Gillibrand has run a very good campaign in Illinois after a very close loss in Michigan. So far, Gillibrand has been only able to win in the northeast but she hopes to expand her terrorirty. Gillibrand is leading Biden by exactly 671 and is just behind Brown by 1,294 votes which are very close for someone that was running the third place in the last few polls but her campaign staff is very confident and her campaign manager has just released a statement that says that Gillibrand will be able to pull through if their math is correct. Gillibrand will have to pull Biden's numbers down in Chicago and win over a lot of the former Pritzker areas and she needs to at least get second or a close third in African-American vote. Gillibrand also has to, has to win Springfield and the surrounding areas around it or she will end up in Second or third.

Third is Biden who has the endorsement of powerful Illinois former and current politicians making him the establishment choice which could help him win with his strong backing of the African-American vote and establishment vote. This Illinois primary also is starting again a battle between Clinton and the Obama faction of the party. Biden is the Obama backed candidate, Gillibrand is the Clinton backed candidate and Brown is the anti-estblishment candidate. Biden needs to win big in Chicago around 10% and do well in Springfield even if he loses by a little to Gillibrand. If he doesn't do that then it won't be deadly but it will force Biden to reorginzie in a more Biden friendly area away from the midwest like out west.

Both Jeter and Castro have little chance in Illinois but the goal for them is 15%

[terp40hitch]

What time will you continue the predictions?

i am trying to get as many as i can in

[terp40hitch]

Democratic Race Update

Sherrod Brown: 665

Joe Biden: 649

Kristen Gillibrand: 547

Derek Jeter: 381

Joaquin Castro: 355

Michelle Obama: 41

Doug Jones: 20

John Delaney: 6

Florida Primary Final Results

Joaquin Castro: 22% (52)

Joe Biden: 22%  (51)

Derek Jeter: 21% (50)

Kristen Gillibrand: 19% (48)

Sherrod Brown: 16% (45)

Illinios Primary Final Results

Kristen Gillibrand: 24% (51)

Joe Biden: 23% (47)

Sherrod Brown: 22% (46)

Derek Jeter: 18% (39)

Joaquin Castro: 13%

Missouri Primary Final Results

Sherrod Brown: 31% (34)

Derek Jeter: 24% (19)

Joe Biden: 18% (16)

Kristen Gillibrand: 15% (15)

Joaquin Castro: 12%

North Carolina Primary Final Results

Joe Biden: 27% (50)

Sherrod Brown: 23% (41)

Kristen Gillibrand: 22% (39)

Joaquin Castro: 15% (30)

Derek Jeter: 13%

Ohio Primary Final Results

Sherrod Brown: 53% (90)

Joe Biden: 21% (50)

Kristen Gillibrand: 16% (20)

Derek Jeter: 5%

Joaquin Castro: 4%

Arizona Primary Final Results

Joaquin Castro: 37% (35)

Joe Biden: 23% (25)

Kristen Gillibrand: 21% (15)

Sherrod Brown: 17% (10)

Derek Jeter: 2%

Idaho Caucus Final Results

Joe Biden: 31% (11)

Derek Jeter: 29% (9)

Sherrod Brown: 19% (5)

Kristen Gillibrand: 15% (2)

Joaquin Castro: 6%

Utah Caucus Final Results

Derek Jeter: 38% (18)

Joe Biden: 31% (12)

Kristen Gillibrand: 16% (7)

Joaquin Castro: 11%

Sherrod Brown: 4%

Alaska Caucus Final Results

Derek Jeter: 57% (16)

Joe Biden: 23% (3)

Sherrod Brown: 16% (1)

Kristen Gillibrand: 3%

Joaquin Castro: 1%

Hawaii Primary Final Results

Joe Biden: 51% (17)

Joaquin Castro: 29% (11)

Kristen Gillibrand: 15% (6)

Derek Jeter: 2%

Sherrod Brown: 2%

Washington Caucus Final Results

Derek Jeter: 33% (46)

Joe Biden: 30% (39)

Kristen Gillibrand: 20% (33)

Sherrod Brown: 14%

Joaquin Castro: 3%

[terp40hitch]

Still waiting for the beginning of the next turn.

Tonight, I got sick so I have just been resting

[terp40hitch]

Turn 9

March 27th to April 19th

In the News!

Trump Fire Sessions

After years of public attacks by Trump to his Attroney General, he finally fired Sessions. Mixed recationed followed with many Libertarians supporting the idea while about half of each major party were forius about the decision

Brokerd Convection?

Again, the Democrats are facing a brokerd convection with Biden within 30 delegates of Brown which caused the fivethirtyeight prediction to surge from 38.7% to 50.2%

RCP Trump Approval Rating

Disapprove: 57%

Approve: 42%

Unsure: 1%

RCP General Election Polling

Generic Democrat (D): 45%

Mike Pence (R): 43%

Mark Cuban (I): 4%

Unsure: 8%

Poll of GOP Voters: Do you support Mike Pence?

Yes: 79%

No: 21%

RCP Democrat National Polling

Kristen Gillibrand: 23%

Joe Biden: 23%

Sherrod Brown: 22%

Derek Jeter: 16%

Joaquin Castro: 14%

Unsure: 2%

RCP State Democrat National Polling

New York

Kristen Gillibrand: 36%

Derek Jeter: 24%

Joe Biden: 19%

Sherrod Brown: 11%

Joaquin Castro: 10%

Wisconsin

Sherrod Brown: 27%

Joe Biden: 24%

Kristen Gillibrand: 22%

Derek Jeter: 8%

Joaquin Castro: 5%

Wyoming

Derek Jeter: 29%

Sherrod Brown: 28%

Joe Biden: 26%

Kristen Gillibrand: 11%

Joaquin Castro: 6%

Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Wensday night, at 8:59:59 PM Eastern Time. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence. Extensions will be given for the requester and the requester only, not for the field at large, so if you need an extension, PM me.

Messaging is key! This turn will be all about setting up your ground game and building your coalition, so make sure to write your speeches/schedule accordingly! Speaking of which...

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run three advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run two advertisements, and if you poll below 10% but above 5%, then you can run one advertisement!

[terp40hitch]

Since I'm doing very bad in these states, am I able to skip this turn but apply the ads I have now to the next turn?

I can't really let you do that but you can run those ads in other states then the three that are shown

[terp40hitch]

Ok, which states are in the next turn?

the Turn will end April 26th

[terp40hitch]

Can I have Jeff Flake and Mark Sanford as a Libertarian

You have already dropped out twice so I have to say no

[terp40hitch]

FiveThirtyEight Rates the Final Democrats Primaries

Wyoming: Tossup between Brown and Jeter
Wisconsin: Lean Brown
New York: Gillibrand Country
Rhode Island: Likely Gillibrand
Connecticut: Gillibrand Country
Maryland: Lean Biden
Deleware: Biden Country
Pennsylvania: Tossup Between Biden and Brown
Indiana: Likely Brown
Guam: Tossup between Gillibrand and Castro
West Virginia: Brown Country
Oregon: Tossup between Gillibrand, Biden, and Jeter
Kentucky: Lean Brown
Virgin Island: Lean Castro
Puerto Rico: Likely Castro
California: Tossup between Gillibrand, Biden, and Castro
New Mexico: Likely Castro
Montana: Tossup between Biden, Brown, and Jeter
North Dakota: Lean Brown
South Dakota: Likely Brown
New Jersey: Likely Gillibrand
Washington D.C: Likely Biden

FiveThirtyEight Chance of Each Candidate Becomes Nominee on First Ballot

Republican
Mike Pence: 99%
John Kasich: 1%
Donald Trump: 0%

Democrat
Sherrod Brown: 31%
Joe Biden: 30%
Kristen Gillibrand: 30%
Joaquin Castro: 9%
Derek Jeter: 8%

FiveThirtyEight Chance of Each Candidate Becomes Nominee during Brokerd Convection

Republican
Mike Pence: 96%
Donald Trump: 3%
John Kasich: 1%

Democrats
Joe Biden: 29%
Kristen Gillibrand: 27%
Sherrod Brown: 24%
Joaquin Castro: 12%
Derek Jeter: 4%

FiveThirtyEight Chance of Each Candidate Becoming President

Mike Pence: 44%
Joe Biden: 16%
Sherrod Brown: 15%
Kristen Gillibrand: 13%
Joaquin Castro: 6%
Derek Jeter: 4%
Donald Trump: 1%
John Kasich: 1%

[terp40hitch]

Steve Shepard: The last few weeks have also had its moments with the Biden campaigns falling apart with close advisors telling the media that if Biden can't win tonight that you should expect a concession and Pence's choice of Rep. Dave Brat to be VP. Now it is 9:00 pm on the eastern coast and we are getting results from three states, Wyoming, Wisconsin and the all-important New York.

Wyoming Caucus Results (0.7%)

Sherrod Brown: 38%

Derek Jeter: 24%

Joe Biden: 16%

Joaquin Castro: 15%

Kristen Gillibrand: 11%

Steve Shepard: Wyoming is too early to call with the leader being Brown which could be where Biden's working-class voters went.

Wisconsin Primary Results (5.6%)

Sherrod Brown: 43%

Kristen Gillibrand: 27%

Derek Jeter: 15%

Joe Biden: 8%

Joaquin Castro: 7%

Steve Shepard: Sherrod Brown has won the Wisconsin Primary

New York Primary Results (0.04%)

Kristen Gillibrand: 48%

Derek Jeter: 31%

Joaquin Castro: 11%

Sherrod Brown: 7%

Joe Biden: 4%

Steve Shepard: New York is yet another too early to call with Gillibrand leading the pack with only one other strong challenge from former Yankee's player Derek Jeter.

[terp40hitch]

Steve Shepard: Breaking News, we have just heard from multiple field staffers in New York and Wyoming from the Biden that they have received word from the campaign manager that Biden will concede the race tonight in less than an hour. This isn't a huge surprise since, in the last two weeks, Biden's campaign fell apart after a very a good few months. This, however, is a big change with many of his voters not knowing where to go

Wyoming Caucus Results (1.9%)

Sherrod Brown: 39%

Derek Jeter: 27%

Joaquin Castro: 17%

Joe Biden: 11%

Kristen Gillibrand: 10%

Steve Shepard: We are still calling Wyoming to close to call but Brown was the only candidate to actually visit Wyoming which gave him the edge and you can see a lot of former blue-collar supporters of Biden have gone to the Brown camp at least for tonight.

Wisconsin Primary Results (11.2%)

Sherrod Brown: 41%

Kristen Gillibrand: 31%

Derek Jeter: 16%

Joaquin Castro: 7%

Joe Biden: 5%

Steve Shepard: Brown has won the Wisconsin primary but the results are getting much closer between Gillibrand. The gap that was around a 16% point lead by Brown but it still remains above 10% and you will see that continue if he continues to have strong leads around the suburban areas that we expected Gillibrand to carry

New York Primary Results (0.7%)

Kristen Gillibrand: 55%

Derek Jeter: 32%

Joaquin Castro: 6%

Sherrod Brown: 5%

Joe Biden: 1%

Steve Shepard: At this time we believe that Gillibrand has a strong enough,  lead in Manchester, Queens and Brooklyn to win the state of New York. Now let's look deeper at what happened there tonight. Right now, I am bringing up the 2016 Democratic primary results and 2018 governor results:

Now, on the left is 2016 with Clinton-Gold and Sanders-Green while the right side is 2018 with Cuomo who himself was preparing a 2020 run till Gillibrand ran being blue and Cynthia Nixon being gold. Now, Gillibrand has repeated Cuomo victory in the New York City area except having it much closer in New York City with Jeter. That is how we knew she would win and she ran a very good campaign upstate which helped pull down some of those margins you are seeing upstate for Jeter which are much lower than Sanders had in 2016. Now, Jeter did run a very well-oiled campaign in New York and you can tell by how many Cuomo upstate counties he flipped but Gillibrand is a force to be reckoned with and she was able to hold onto those Cuomo very well. Now, I am going to look at Castro results. Both Brown and Biden won't be able to make it to 15% but Castro might but he must start overperfroming in upstate because his only strong area is the New York City area and he is only polling around 16% or 17% there.