Post-Obama - A Different 2012 (Rules, Sign-up, and OOC thread)

[terp40hitch]

This is my prediction for the Republican primary:

Red: Huckabee
Blue: Giuliani
Green: DeMint
Yellow: Bachmann

This is my prediction for the Democratic primary

Red: Obama
Blue: Biden
Green: Brendsen

[terp40hitch]

This is my prediction for the Republican primary:

Red: Huckabee
Blue: Giuliani
Green: DeMint
Yellow: Bachmann

I wouldn't predict the later primaries at this point. The primary is likely to be conclusive after Super Tuesday. Also, Huckabee would probably do better in the south, especially since Huckabee won 13% in Mississippi well after he dropped out, and DeMint winning in Utah is laughable (not that I hate him, he's just a really bad fit for the state)

The Republican primaries will be extremely close and I think super Tuesday may make it even closer. Also, I think both DeMint and Huckabee will have to battle for the south especially in states like Georgia. DeMint could have a chance in Utah since the Lee endorsement but as I see it he has very similar views to Ted Cruz who sweep the caucus and I gave it to him since he has been trying to win over Mormon voters from the very start of the campaign.

[terp40hitch]

This is my prediction for the Republican primary:

Red: Huckabee
Blue: Giuliani
Green: DeMint
Yellow: Bachmann

Who wins in this scenario? It looks very close.

Here are some comments on this scenario, which I think is very well done:

1. I also think that Huckabee will take a bit more of that you are giving him. He has a lot more momentum than Bachmann or DeMint.

2. I think Giuliani will at least win IL, IN, OH, and MI. Those states don't ring with the tea party, and I don't think they will go to the candidate with last place in polling.

My prediction for the winner is going be decided in a contested convection or the party will unite around Giuliani or whoever wins California as a show of unity

Also touching on your points

1. Huckabee could win much more of the south but I think that the two frontrunners will have a stop in momentum after the March 3rd primaries since they do look good for Bachmann and DeMint and particularly bad for Giuliani if he loses Michigan

2. Giuliani might win IL but the other states were in the tea party and Bachmann probably wins them since she is the midwestern candidate. I think that the most interesting primary to watch on Super Tuesday is going to be Ohio since how diverse their views are since there is a large number of establishment votes, large number of Tea Party and a Large number of Working Class.

[terp40hitch]

Alrighty bois, I'll start the writeup. This was a good turn!

This was a really good turn

[terp40hitch]

Michigan results so far are... interesting.

?

[terp40hitch]

Yes! I finally won one!!!

Good day for the underdog, Bachmann won one and may win two more if everything goes in her favor!

[terp40hitch]

Yes! I finally won one!!!

Congrats!. and it seems that I have a good chance at winning missouri. perhaps a Bredsesen-Bidsen truce can emerge

To be fair, I kind of underpeformed, on this day... If I don't pick up at least a few states on Super Tuesday, I'm probably going to endorse Obama (I was expecting to win Maine and/or Minnesota)

I still see you winning Minnesota by the end of the night

[terp40hitch]

The only thing I'm surprised about is Michigan so far. It was supposed to be a 3- way race and I put quite a bit of campaigning into it, but maybe I'll see a resurgence. DeMint also underperformed quite a bit.

I didn't really campaign there (except for 2 days or so, I don't remember the exact number) so I'm not surprised with DeMint underperforming, I also didn't expect Huckabee to win Michigan or come that close to the top, but I did underestimate Giuliani in the state.

Even though Bachmann lives relatively close, Giuliani is a better fit for Michigan than her, Huckabee or DeMint, IMO.

I would think Bachmann is better since the large working-class vote and the large tea party voting block

[terp40hitch]

The only thing I'm surprised about is Michigan so far. It was supposed to be a 3- way race and I put quite a bit of campaigning into it, but maybe I'll see a resurgence. DeMint also underperformed quite a bit.

I didn't really campaign there (except for 2 days or so, I don't remember the exact number) so I'm not surprised with DeMint underperforming, I also didn't expect Huckabee to win Michigan or come that close to the top, but I did underestimate Giuliani in the state.

Even though Bachmann lives relatively close, Giuliani is a better fit for Michigan than her, Huckabee or DeMint, IMO.

I would think Bachmann is better since the large working-class vote and the large tea party voting block

Michigan is a more "moderate" state than some of the states Bachmann and DeMint will be doing best in...as outside of the Flint Water fiasco (which hasn't happened yet, I know) Rick Snyder governed more like a moderate, than say, Rick Scott, Paul LePage or Greg Abbott. Bachmann's best chance is probably in the South...but she'll be competing with DeMint and Huckabee there. Giuliani will do best in the Northeast, West Coast and self-described "moderate" states, like Ohio (where he may end up with John Kasich's endorsement), Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic (so places like Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and D.C).

I don't see how the GOP primary doesn't end in brokered convention unless DeMint/Bachmann drop out soon, and with wins in Minnesota, and possibly a few states on Super Tuesday, Bachmann probably shouldn't for a while yet.

Snyder and Kasich ran as Tea Party Republicans and probably would have lost if they ran as moderates

[terp40hitch]

The only thing I'm surprised about is Michigan so far. It was supposed to be a 3- way race and I put quite a bit of campaigning into it, but maybe I'll see a resurgence. DeMint also underperformed quite a bit.

I didn't really campaign there (except for 2 days or so, I don't remember the exact number) so I'm not surprised with DeMint underperforming, I also didn't expect Huckabee to win Michigan or come that close to the top, but I did underestimate Giuliani in the state.

Even though Bachmann lives relatively close, Giuliani is a better fit for Michigan than her, Huckabee or DeMint, IMO.

I would think Bachmann is better since the large working-class vote and the large tea party voting block

Assuming Michigan is a tea-party state, which it's not.

Also, I never really saw Bachmann as a working class candidate. She does check boxes for the tea party, but for the Working class I would say Giuliani and Huckabee have the advantage.

I don't think a candidate willing to sack social security will win working class voters. Just my opinion.

I could see Huckabee as working class but not Giuliani. Giuliani is getting his votes from moderates and establishments and they have a high number of both those in Michigan

[terp40hitch]

The only thing I'm surprised about is Michigan so far. It was supposed to be a 3- way race and I put quite a bit of campaigning into it, but maybe I'll see a resurgence. DeMint also underperformed quite a bit.

I didn't really campaign there (except for 2 days or so, I don't remember the exact number) so I'm not surprised with DeMint underperforming, I also didn't expect Huckabee to win Michigan or come that close to the top, but I did underestimate Giuliani in the state.

Even though Bachmann lives relatively close, Giuliani is a better fit for Michigan than her, Huckabee or DeMint, IMO.

I would think Bachmann is better since the large working-class vote and the large tea party voting block

Assuming Michigan is a tea-party state, which it's not.

Also, I never really saw Bachmann as a working class candidate. She does check boxes for the tea party, but for the Working class I would say Giuliani and Huckabee have the advantage.

I don't think a candidate willing to sack social security will win working class voters. Just my opinion.

I could see Huckabee as working class but not Giuliani. Giuliani is getting his votes from moderates and establishments and they have a high number of both those in Michigan

Working class voters tend more democratic. You know what that means in a republican primary? Moderates. Working class voters tend moderate and are politically turned off by the tea party.

The working class in the Republican party tend to be Reagan conservatives which would be much more in Huckabee's columns and to an extent Bachmann's

[terp40hitch]

A good night for the tea party, undoubtedly.

Agreed. If Michigan goes for Bachmann as well as Washington, the Tea Party will be very happy

Yeah, the tea party already won two (one for DeMint and one for Bachmann) and it looks like they could get as many as three more

[terp40hitch]

A good night for the tea party, undoubtedly.

Agreed. If Michigan goes for Bachmann as well as Washington, the Tea Party will be very happy

Wait, you all think Giuliani will win Arizona, just because he has John McCain's endorsement?

I wouldn't be shocked if any of the other three wins...

Huckabee has McCain's Endorsement.

BTW, if Demint wins AZ, the Tea Party will be shouting from the rooftops

If Bachmann wins Washington and Michigan, DeMint wins Arizona then it will definitely be a contested convection

[terp40hitch]

A good night for the tea party, undoubtedly.

Agreed. If Michigan goes for Bachmann as well as Washington, the Tea Party will be very happy

Wait, you all think Giuliani will win Arizona, just because he has John McCain's endorsement?

I wouldn't be shocked if any of the other three wins...

Huckabee has McCain's Endorsement.

BTW, if Demint wins AZ, the Tea Party will be shouting from the rooftops

If Bachmann wins Washington and Michigan, DeMint wins Arizona then it will definitely be a contested convection

Welp, Michigan didn't happen, but Washington might.

If I were Bachmann, I would request a recount in Michigan.

In my speech I am planning on doing something like that

[terp40hitch]

TBH, I'm shocked with how well I'm doing in Minnesota despite never Campaigning there.

Yeah, it looks like you're basically going to deny me victory in Minnesota.

Maybe it's the fact I spent more time in Maine, Michigan and Missouri...


When should we (you, me, Obama) start attacking Bloomberg? The fact is the race is within the margin of error with him running, so if we can damage him, especially before both conventions, we might be able to take the lead.

As Obama is the delegate leader, and still the most likely nominee, I'm all for letting her take the lead attacking Bloomberg...but I'd like to get a few shots in, and I think you (Bredesen) should too...

I think Republicans should start doing this too since he is at 11% right now and he could be a spoiler like Perot’92 if we don’t attack

[terp40hitch]

A good night for the tea party, undoubtedly.

Agreed. If Michigan goes for Bachmann as well as Washington, the Tea Party will be very happy

Wait, you all think Giuliani will win Arizona, just because he has John McCain's endorsement?

I wouldn't be shocked if any of the other three wins...

Huckabee has McCain's Endorsement.

BTW, if Demint wins AZ, the Tea Party will be shouting from the rooftops

If Bachmann wins Washington and Michigan, DeMint wins Arizona then it will definitely be a contested convection

Welp, Michigan didn't happen, but Washington might.

If I were Bachmann, I would request a recount in Michigan.

In my speech I am planning on doing something like that

Wxtransit said a while back that he's not allowing recounts. That's why I didn't try one in South Carolina.

Even if I did a recount it wouldn’t be much different since it is a primary and they already had electronic voting in Michigan so usually it is accurate unlike Caucus

[terp40hitch]

Results aren't final yet, but how is Bachmann tied with me in a state that I just had a 6 point lead in?

Bachmann was the only one to campaign in and launch a GOTV for Washington

[terp40hitch]

These are my new predictions for GOP, same colors as last time

I think after the March 3rd primary it gave a large amount of momentum to Bachmann and DeMint and could help going into Super Tuesday. Also, I think Huckabee will do better in areas around Missouri since he definitely overperformed there tonight

[terp40hitch]

These are my new predictions for GOP, same colors as last time

I think after the March 3rd primary it gave a large amount of momentum to Bachmann and DeMint and could help going into Super Tuesday. Also, I think Huckabee will do better in areas around Missouri since he definitely overperformed there tonight

What of the Dems?

I will do those after super Tuesday polls come out

I wish I could do one earlier but I do not know much about the Democrats (whether they're conservative or progressive or working class) in the states

[terp40hitch]

probably will combine it with March 11th and everything before that states

[terp40hitch]

I have my victory speech up tonight

[terp40hitch]

Popular Vote Totals for Republican Primary

Mike Huckabee (145): 30.79%: 1,419,929
Rudy Giuliani (88): 25.55%: 1,178,007
Michele Bachmann (81): 21.80%: 1,005,068
Jim DeMint (93): 21.63%: 997,547
Jeb Bush (3): 0.49%: 23,036
Adam Carolla: 0.16%: 7,521

[terp40hitch]

Popular Vote Totals for Republican Primary

Mike Huckabee (145): 30.79%: 1,419,929
Rudy Giuliani (88): 25.55%: 1,178,007
Michele Bachmann (81): 21.80%: 1,005,068
Jim DeMint (93): 21.63%: 997,547
Jeb Bush (3): 0.49%: 23,036
Adam Carolla: 0.16%: 7,521

Strange, I was doing the same thing but adding up all the votes from my results to each state ended up with 4,609,804 votes, and adding up all the votes from your results ended with 4,631,108 votes. I think I screwed up in some state.

I must have made a mistake too since I meant to have a total of 4,610,237

[terp40hitch]

Just to make sure there isn't any confusion again, I got Rob Portman (R-OH) and George Allen (R-VA) for this turn.

I got Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) and United Mine Workers of America

[terp40hitch]

My prediction:
Alaska: Tossup between DeMint and Bachmann, advantage to DeMint
Georgia: Lean Huckabee,
Idaho: Tossup between DeMint and Bachmann, advantage to Bachmann
Massachusetts: Solid Giuliani
North Dakota: Lean Bachmann
Ohio: Tossup between Giuliani and Huckabee, advantage to Giuliani
Oklahoma: Solid Huckabee
Tennessee: Tossup between Huckabee and DeMint, advantage to DeMint
Vermont: Solid Giuliani
Virginia: Lean Giuliani
Wyoming: Lean Bachmann

I think after the the momentum from March 3rd that Georgia would move to toss up between Huck and DeMint then I would add Bachmann to Ohio’s tossup and i would change North Dakota to likely Bachmann