Will Boris Johnson last to 2024?

[beesley]

Building on what my friend above said, a lot of the dissatisfaction with him has now entered the territory where it is an actual 'problem' with him. Theresa May's election disaster and the initial problems of the Covid handling under Hancock's tenure were mistakes, but Boris being perennially sleazy and otherwise awful, and dissatisfaction with his handling of Covid which is fairly deep-seated (and worst of all, sagging poll numbers) has reached or is bound to reach the 'no way out' position that May's Brexit disaster was (although in a less drawn out way perhaps). Plus we have all the posturing and cabinet infighting to boot.

[beesley]

Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.

Smith and Miliband never became PMs now did they.

TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.

Both of your examples deal with election results after not having had periods as turbulent and dissatisfactory as Boris is having, and in Cameron's case there was no internal Tory challenge at all. (I assume you meant to say Kinnock rather than Smith). This is about the likelihood of Boris actually making that election. For our country's sake I hope that election is quite soon.