Which House incumbents, if any, have a decent chance of losing a primary? (user search)
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  Which House incumbents, if any, have a decent chance of losing a primary? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which House incumbents, if any, have a decent chance of losing a primary?  (Read 993 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,145
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

« on: May 04, 2021, 10:10:10 AM »
« edited: May 04, 2021, 01:45:56 PM by beesley »

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

Good question.

On the GOP side:
Cheney
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Mooney (though he's unlikely to be an effective incumbent)
Palazzo
Rice
Upton (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)

On the Dem side:
Auchincloss
Cooper
Cuellar
Foster (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)
Carolyn Maloney
Scott (GA)
Schrader

I would also say Gomez has a fair chance of losing in the general to another D based on the 2020 results though I don't know the local circumstances.

Not sure about Fletcher but as you say it's plausible. The same would apply to Newman.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,145
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2021, 10:18:58 AM »

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

Good question.

On the GOP side:
Cheney
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Mooney (though he's unlikely to be an effective incumbent)
Palazzo
Rice
Upton (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)

On the Dem side:
Auchincloss
Cooper
Cuellar
Foster (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)
Maloney
Scott (GA)
Schrader

I would also say Gomez has a fair chance of losing in the general to another D based on the 2020 results though I don't know the local circumstances.

Not sure about Fletcher but as you say it's plausible. The same would apply to Newman.
Why Palazzo? Gomez might get a more Hispanic district in 2022 to avoid packing too many Hispanics into neighboring districts for VRA compliance.

Palazzo is seen as a pretty poor representative and he has continual ethics issues. He already is being challenged by a local sheriff - https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/08/congress-south-mississippi-sheriff-run-against-steven-palazzo-2022/7138241002/
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