Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[beesley]

After Parkland we knoe the truth about Secular v Tradtl, and Russia are s a Tradtl Govt which means Red that have consistentky interfered in our Elections, due to Cuban Missle Crisis to killing 4 CR it wasn't an accident that the also got a Palestinian to kill Bobby Kennedy, Palestian Marxist are close to Iran, and Syria and Russia is an ally of both, KGB was a Terroritorists group, just like QANON and KKK

I have no idea what any of this means, but I’ll recommend it anyways.

[beesley]

Like Blairite, I know have run my 2030 populations through a proper calculator, and unsurprisingly, I've gotten very different answers from my original projections, where I severely underestimated how many people would be needed for certain states to get another seat (my original prediction was just made by eyeballing the numbers). These are my revised predictions:


TX+3
FL+2
VA+1
WA+1
AZ+1
UT+1
ID+1

CA-2
PA-1
IL-1
OH-1
MI-1
MN-1
WI-1
CT-1
RI-1

The Presidential electoral map would look like this.


Last fifteen seats allocated:

421. AZ-10
422. CO-8
423. TX-40
424. KY-6
425. MS-4
426. IL-16
427. CA-50
428. IN-9
429. MO-8
430. AL-7
431. NY-26
432. WA-10
433. TX-41
434. FL-30
435. VA-12

First fifteen seats which just missed the cutoff:

436. OH-15
437. CA-51
438. RI-2
439. CT-5
440. MI-13
441. MN-8
442. PA-17
443. TX-42
444. GA-15
445. CA-52
446. NV-5
447. WI-8
448. TN-10
449. MA-10
450. NC-15

So some potential dark horses for an unexpected gain of one seat are Georgia, Nevada, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and North Carolina.

On the flip-side, some potential dark horses for an unexpected loss of one seat are Alabama, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky.


Inside the spoiler you can see my projection for each state, I used a mixture of the 2019 - 2020 population change in the Vintage Population Estimates, the 2020 Census Resident Population results, and my own personal opinions on where things are going. Even though I tried to keep things realistic, there's a lot of uncertainty here.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Raw Number increase refers to change since 2020, rounded to the nearest 10,000.

• CA: 41,200,000 (+1.66 Million) (+4.2%)
• TX: 33,230,000 (+4.08 Million) (+14.0%)
• FL: 24,200,000 (+2.66 Million) (+12.4%)
• NY: 21,000,000 (+800K) (+4.0%)
• PA: 13,250,000 (+250K) (+1.9%)
• IL: 12,900,000 (+90K) (+0.7%)
• OH: 11,860,000 (+60K) (+0.5%)
• GA: 11,600,000 (+890K) (+8.3%)
• NC: 11,500,000 (+1.06 Million) (+10.2%)
• MI: 10,100,000 (+20K) (+0.2%)
• NJ: 9,750,000 (+460K) (+5.0%)
• VA: 9,410,000 (+780K) (+9.0%)
• WA: 8,630,000 (+920K) (+12.0%)
• AZ: 8,000,000 (+850K) (+11.9%)
• TN: 7,539,000 (+630K) (+9.1%)
• MA: 7,530,000 (+500K) (+7.1%)
• IN: 7,050,000 (+260K) (+3.8%)
• MD: 6,500,000 (+320K) (+5.2%)
• CO: 6,300,000 (+530K) (+9.1%)
• MO: 6,180,000 (+30K) (+0.4%)
• MN: 6,050,000 (+340K) (+6.0%)
• WI: 5,950,000 (+60K) (+1.0%)
• SC: 5,650,000 (+530K) (+10.4%)
• AL: 5,350,000 (+330K) (+6.5%)
• LA: 4,660,000 (±0K) (±0.0%)
• KY: 4,600,000 (+90K) (+2.1%)
• OR: 4,630,000 (+390K) (+9.3%)
• OK: 4,240,000 (+280K) (+7.1%)
• UT: 3,830,000 (+560K) (+17.1%)
• CT: 3,620,000 (+10K) (+0.4%)
• NV: 3,570,000 (+470K) (+15.0%)
• IA: 3,250,000 (+60K) (+1.9%)
• AR: 3,100,000 (+90K) (+2.9%)
• KS: 2,980,000 (+40K) (+1.4%)
• MS: 2,900,000 (-60K) (-2.1%)
• NM: 2,225,000 (+110K) (+5.1%)
• ID: 2,200,000 (+360K) (+19.6%)
• NE: 2,110,000 (+150K) (+7.6%)
• WV: 1,700,000 (-90K) (-5.2%)
• HI: 1,530,000 (+70K) (+5.1%)
• NH: 1,475,000 (+100K) (+7.1%)
• ME: 1,415,000 (+50K) (+3.9%)
• MT: 1,215,000 (+130K) (+12.1%)
• RI: 1,150,000 (+50K) (+4.8%)
• DE: 1,090,000 (+100K) (+10.1%)
• SD: 960,000 (+70K) (+8.3%)
• ND: 820,000 (+40K) (+5.3%)
• AK: 760,000 (+30K) (+3.6%)
• VT: 670,000 (+30K) (+4.2%)
• WY: 600,000 (+20K) (+4.0%)

DC: 760,000 (+70K) (+10.2%)

USA: 352,789,000 (+21.34 Million) (+6.4%)

Feel free to bump this in ten years so we can all laugh hard.

What do you all think?

I didn't intend to reply again so soon, but I liked this post that much and I have been meaning to ask Abdullah about his calculations.