MN-GOV - The return of Tim Pawlenty?

[Burke859]

I've read that some are speculating that T-Paw hasn't yet closed the door on a third gubernatorial run this year, and that he is only ruling out running for Senate.

Given that the race for the Minnesota state house seems to be wide open, how would Pawlenty do as a candidate for governor in a post-Trump world?

As a side note, Pawlenty was always one of my favorite dark horse presidential prospective candidates back in the day.  In some ways, he had the right idea of where the GOP was headed in terms of targeting the Industrial Midwest and blue collar whites.  His brief 2012 flirtation with a presidential campaign produced what I thought was one of the most underrated GOP political ads of our era, and in many ways portrays the possibility of a kinder, gentler Trumpism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsVHHN2nGlM

So would a Pawlenty run be just what the doctor ordered, or would it be more like Russ Feingold and Evan Bayh trying to make comebacks in 2016, too little, too late?

[Burke859]

From a Republican perspective though, Pawlenty remains well-liked on the GOP side and is probably remembered more fondly than Coleman, partly because Pawlenty was just a more interesting political figure.

However one argument that Pawlenty is past his prime can be found in the differences between his map and Trump's map.  It's possible that in the post-Obama era, the urban and suburban voters around Minneapolis/St. Paul who voted for Pawlenty won't be coming back to the Republicans, even for one of their own.

Here's Pawlenty's 2006 victory map:



And here's Trump's 2016 map:



These appear to be very different coalitions.  Trump traded pretty much the entire Twin Cities area for the rural voters up north.  Bad deal in Minnesota for Trump but a good deal in other states.  In any case, can Pawlenty win back his Twin Cities voters, or does he have to try to win with Trumpy voters, similar to Ed Gillespie?

[Burke859]

Here's Pawlenty's 2006 victory map:

Also note that Bush/Kerry '04 basically had the same template as Pawlenty '06, just with a different outcome:



This template is probably gone forever now, after 8 years of Obama bringing more white collar whites into the Democratic Party, and 2 years of Trump bringing more blue collar whites into the GOP.

Can Trump's template actually win Minnesota?  I think Maine and Nevada are lower hanging fruits than Minnesota nationally, since neither have a major urban/suburban center filled with the very kinds of voters that have spent the past decade abandoning the GOP.

I just don't see how you win Minnesota without doing better in the Twin Cities.