California House Races Megathread

[Coastal Elitist]

Another poll of CA-50 shows Hunter up 49-41. His lead actually grown with the Democratic surge model, lol. Can they actually poll competitive districts like CA-10, CA-25, CA-45.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_092718.pdf/

[Coastal Elitist]

Another poll of a safe district by Survey USA finds Devin Nunes up by 14 points on Andrew Janz. Just in case there was any doubt Devin Nunes is safe. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=816ee008-2d9d-4a87-b4ff-465606db1472&c=100

Nunes: 55%
Janz: 41%

Hispanic support is 50% Janz, 42% Nunes. Another central valley district shows that Hispanics there are more conservative than people think.

[Coastal Elitist]

Will turnout in Hacienda Heights in Los Angeles County be fairly high? If so, Cisneros will win.

Unincorporated Hacienda Heights is just one part of the district and it's not even that big. Fairly high turnout there isn't going to all of sudden make Kim lose if it's still high in Brea and places like that.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's a look at early vote data in the competitive CA congressional districts with a comparison to the primary at this point. California does not report data during the weekend so this is for 11 days until election day.

CA-10
General:
Democrats 13,535 40.5%
Republicans 13,780 41.3%
Other 6,068 18.2%
Total 33,383

Primary:
Democrats 10,247 43%
Republicans 9,801 41%
Other 4,027 17%
Total 24,075

CA-25
General:
Democrats 11,377 35%
Republicans 13,692 43%
Other 7,042 22%
Total 32,111

Primary:
Democrats 6,381 37%
Republicans 7,461 43%
Other 3,583 21%
Total 17,425

CA-39
General:
Democrats 9,830 30%
Republicans 15,369 48%
Other 7,702 22%
Total 32,271

Primary:
Democrats 6,125 34%
Republicans 8,229 45%
Other 3,924 21%
Total 18,278

CA-45
General:
Democrats 15,198 30%
Republicans 23,687 47%
Other 11,489 23%
Total 50,374

Primary:
Democrats 7,993 32%
Republicans 11,273 46%
Other 5,561 22%
Total 25,277

CA-48
General:
Democrats 16,036 31%
Republicans 24,374 47%
Other 11,315 22%
Total 51,725

Primary:
Democrats 9,822 35%
Republicans 12,706 45%
Other 5,701 20%
Total 28,229

CA-49
General:
Democrats 15,202 33%
Republicans 19,940 43%
Other 10,762 23%
Total 45,904

Primary:
Democrats 15,864 36%
Republicans 16,356 38%
Other 11,301 26%
Total 43,521

CA-49 is interesting as Democrats have lower turnout than the primary and Republicans have higher. Though overall turnout is barely up from the primary compared to the other districts.

[Coastal Elitist]

Socaldem makes a great point despite Clinton carrying Orange County albeit earning just over 50% of the vote, every county level position is held by a Republican and all five members of the board of supervisors are Republicans. Also at the same time Clinton was winning the county Republicans won the congressional popular vote 53.4%-46.89% and they won the state assembly popular vote by even more at 56.54%-43.46%. So it seems like the further down you go the more Republican gets.

If you actually go and look at the individual city data for the presidential election you'll see that multiple cities with a double-digit or high single-digit R voter registration advantage voted for Clinton, which shows that there was a lot of crossover votes.

You can say what you want about the early vote, but those numbers don't look good for Dems and you can't exactly ignore that. It looks like Republicans are more motivated to vote now then they were in the primary. Remember CA-49 was the only district in the primary where the Dems got more votes than the Reps.