it's a gallup poll. Consequently, no trust. But it would not be a surprise for me if dem lose their poll advantage. Approching election, GOP comes back. Like in 2004 where dem had a great poll advantage too.
I don't dismiss Gallup polls out of hand, but in 2004 in September and October they often showed the GOP doing much better than any other poll And Dems in 2004 most assuredly did not have a great poll advantage at this point; Kerry was running worse in polls in September than he did on election day, though Gallup was egregiously off. (Bush up by 13 in mid-Sept 2004? Come on...)
Perhaps Gallup phoned too many Republicans, as they sometimes do. Interestingly, last week's Rasmussen poll had Bush doing better than he is in Gallup, and now he's doing worse in that survey (40% today.)
Taking MOE into account, I'd say that Bush's average approval over all polls is about 41%; Gallup is probably a few points off in the pro-GOP direction, but statistically that's probably not a significant difference.
