The Keys to the White House: 1952 Turn and Democratic Convention

[Orwell]

The Keys to the White House

Earl Warren Administration

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Rolls
Warren health (1-100 need 1-5 for death): 89
Dewey health (1-100 need 1-5 for death): 16
Corruption: 52
Civil Instability: 97
Korea (1-70 US involvement as OTL, 71-90 Less US Involvement 91-100 No US): 41
McArthur Nuke strategy (1-55 same as OTL he’s fired as well, 56-98 same as OTL but he has not fired 99-100 nukes in Manchuria): 10
Berlin Airlift (1-60 same strategy as OTL, 61-90 same strategy as OTL less effective, 91-100 different strategy): 2
Taiwan (1-90 Same Chinese and US reactions, 91-100 China invades Taiwan): 59
NATO (1-80 same as OTL with the same members, 81-100 NATO OTL with Greece and Turkey): 28
Red Scare: 11 (Greatly weakened from OTL)
Rosenbergs (1-70 same as OTL, 71-100 Rosen who?): 33 (Ole’ sparky)
1950 Olympics: 22 ( US performs poorer than expected and lost the medal count to the USSR 76-71)
Israel (1-70 same as OTL, 71-90 same as OTL but Einstein is President, 91-100 Israel collapses): 48 (shame no Einstein presidency)
Warren administration scandal: 17 (No major scandal)
The Economy: 86 (Economy is generally strong both Short and long term)
Midterm Republicans: 24
Midterm Democrats: 66
Warren approval rating: 49 (Warren has a 53% approval as of 1950 midterms)
Draft Adlai movement: 16
Draft Ike (1-80 Draft Ike fails 81-95 Ike remains apolitical 96-100 Ike says he would accept if nominated): 97 (I didn't actually think it would happen I don't know what to do)


Player Rolls
Congressman Jackson(NTP): 32 (+5)=37
Legislator Will Angler(Kaiser): 95 (+3)=98
Anton Jepsen(Elcapsar): 89 (+5)=94
Gerald O’Connor(Entropyinaction): 62 (+3)= 65
Michael Feinberg (Aneath): 22 (+6)= 28
Thomas Kenway (GoTFan): 88 (+5)= 93
Anderson (ForumLurker): 47 (+3) = 50

Cabinet

John F. Dulles State
Joseph William Martin, Jr. Treasury
Robert Taft Defense
John W. Bricker Attorney General                                          
William F. Knowland Interior
John J. Williams Agriculture
William E. Jenner Commerce
Edward Martin Labor

Events

President Warren was inaugurated in January of 1949 with Democratic majorities in the Senate much of Warren’s key agenda was expected to be fought over. However, the 1950 National highways act proved to be popular among both parties as it led to plenty of opportunities for congressmen to pack in “pork barrel” for their individual districts and states. Following the 1950 midterm elections, where many of the GOP gains from 1946 and 1948 were wiped out, with 43 seats in the House changing hands giving the Democrats a 30 seat majority, and their first House majority win since 1944, this finally returned Texan Sam Rayburn to the speakership.

In the Senate, Californian Congressmen and WW2 veteran Dick Nixon won a narrow race, in Wisconsin incumbent, Senator Alexander Wiley was defeated by Milwaukee State Senator Henry Maier, long time Utah Senator Elbert Thomas was able to hang on for reelection to a 4th term in the upper body, in Ohio Congressman Stephen Young wins the special election to succeed Robert Taft in the Senate after he was appointed to the Defense Department, Millard Tydings was elected to a 5th term in Maryland, In an Idaho special election Claude j. Burtenshaw wins by a sizeable margin, Claude Pepper cruises to reelection in Florida after narrowly beating primary opponent George Smathers in the primary to the dismay of many prominent Florida Democrats, including Congressman Jackson who is rumored to begin planning a challenge to Pepper in 1956. With the victory of Senator Pepper, Jackson was also placed on the Committee for Armed Services Chaired by powerful Congressman Carl Vinson of Georgia.

The Democrats regaining the House in 1950 was not on the unpopularity of President Warren, but instead on the popularity of local Democratic candidates. One of the biggest wins of the night was Gerry O’Connor in IL-7 where he won with over 70% of the vote with the strong support of working-class immigrants of the area of all backgrounds. When he was inaugurated he was offered either a seat on the Committee of Ways and Means or a place in the Democratic Party’s Steering committee, the former could lead to a possible chairmanship in 20-30 years, while the latter could lead to a place as Speaker of the House in the future if O’Connor wanted to become a career Congressman.  While an Anarchist was accused of being friends with O’Connor during the Congressional race, it turned out to be nothing as the Anarchist was a man O’Connor had known lightly in High School, Michael Feinberg was recalled to the D.C. office until he could be reassigned to a regional office as a Special Agent in charge.

Major news broke when General Eisenhower the hero of the war in Europe and the Supreme Allied Commander, joined an organization known as “Veteran’s for a Better America” this organization reportedly founded by a WW2 Veteran and Iowa Lawyer Thomas Kenway. The group has expanded greatly since it’s founding in early 1948, as General Eisenhower is just the first high profile member of over 3,000, following the General’s announcement within 2 months membership tripled to almost 10,000 men across America, veterans from the World War 1 and 2, along with those who had returned from the Korean conflict.

In Vermont, Will Angler the Chairman of the state’s Appropriations committee secured the Republican nomination for State Senate by acclamation at the Republican convention, and the Democrats failed to even field a candidate for the November election. The highlight, however, was the ability for Angler to attend a meeting with President Warren and the Governor, Angler was invited by the Governor due to their close relationship, with many reporters saying that Angler is closer to the Governor then the Speaker of the Assembly and the President of the Senate.


Following his hearing with the HUAC Committee, Anton Jepsen was able to breathe a sigh of relief, the committee had found nothing in his actions deemed anti-American, with the strength of Joseph McCarthy and his committee greatly strangled by President Warren and the Republican Senate leadership the committee was heading towards doom until the trial and execution of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, but the committee did not leave a lasting impact on the Senate and most Senator’s laugh when McCarthy’s name is mentioned for his pompous and wrothful nature. Jepsen was not all good news as due to his HUAC he was fired as a Professor at the University.

Finally, Texan William Anderson graduated from Baylor University in the top 10% of his class, with the graduation of many of the cruelest Republicans Anderson also began to make headway among the College Republicans and was even able to secure a seat on the Executive Committee his final year, but he continued his schooling at the Universities Law School where he also worked to help continue the College Republicans slide to the center from the right where they were held.  

1952 Elections

As 1952 comes the GOP faces a clean field, with no one daring to challenge President Warren or Vice President Dewey for their respective nominations. On the Democratic side it is a mixed bag, populist Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver won a vast majority of the primaries but lacked anywhere near the delegates needed to win the nomination, Governor of Illinois Adlai Stevenson had been a frontrunner, but he refused to run for or accept the nomination flatly declaring, “I will not be the Democratic nominee in 1952”, Former President Truman has flirted with the possibility of the run, General Dwight Eisenhower also has yet to declare his political loyalties, but the Draft Eisenhower movement led by Florida Senator Claude Pepper worked voraciously and was able to get Ike to say, “If nominated by either party, I will accept their nomination” and for many delegates, those words from General Eisenhower were enough to garner their support, but the question remains where Eisenhower stands on many key issues or if he even will toe the Democratic line. With President Warren quite popular it seems a longshot for any candidate the Democrats nominate other than Eisenhower, but he has a set of qualities unknown.

Democratic National Convention Ballot 1

General Dwight Eisenhower of Kansas
Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee
Former President Harry S. Truman of Missouri
Mayor Hubert Horatio Humphrey of Minnesota (MN Favorite Son)
Mr. W. Avriel Harriman of New York (D.C. Favorite Son)
Senator Richard Rusell of Georgia (Florida Favorite Son)

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[Orwell]

1952 Democratic Convention!

Rolls
Dwight Eisenhower: 75 (+10 momentum, (+15 “Delegate Support”)=100
Estes Kefauver: 82 (+5 momentum) (+10 “Delegate Support)=97
Harry S. Truman: 29 (-5 lost in 48): 24 (Drops out roll for endorsement)
W. Averell Harriman (1-50 Roll to see endorsement 51+ no endorsement): 61
Hubert Humphrey (Same as Harriman -10 due to support for Draft Eisenhower in 1948): 35 - 10 =25
Richard Russell: 28
Eisenhower endorsement roll: 99
Kefauver endorsement roll (-10 Truman dislike): 27-10 (17)
Humphrey endorsement roll (1-65 Eisenhower 66+ Kefauver): 10 (endorses Ike)
Richard Russell endorsement roll (1-40 endorses Eisenhower 41-70 endorses Kefauver 71+ no endorsement): 79 (No endorsement)
Does Kefauver endorse Ike to end it after one ballot (1-70 no 71+ yes): 75

The First Ballot
On the first ballot of the 1952 Democratic National Convention, all eyes were on the performance of General Dwight Eisenhower, affectionately known as “Ike”. The first ballot put General Eisenhower in first with the support of many of the midwestern and New England states, but Senator Kefauver was a close second, however, President Truman, Mayor Humphrey, and Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois made clear endorsements for General Eisenhower before the 2nd ballot, all but clinching the General the nomination. After that turn of events, Senator Kefauver to save the party from splintering over the issue endorsed General Eisenhower as well in a surprise turn of events.

The VEEP STAKES

With General Eisenhower heading the ticket the many calls for the Vice Presidential nominee to be Estes Kefauver of Tennessee who finished second on the first ballot, and endorsed general Eisenhower. Kefauver is noted for his strong energy on the campaign trail and a strong oration, there is also Adlai Stevenson who brings many of the same strong suits as Kefauver but he is from Illinois and some accuse him of being apart of the Democratic establishment which may leave some voters against the ticket. The final major candidate is Senator Claude Pepper of Florida, who while showing no interest in the race himself was the leader of the Draft Eisenhower movement among the Senate Democrats.

Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee
Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois
Senator Claude Pepper of Florida


Reminder: This is your last chance to spend points on characters being elected to office in 1952, whether it be your player character or another person altogether.  Also, you can vote on the Democratic/Republican conventions no matter your party now let’s pick the Democrats a VEEP and see if they can beat Earl in November!

You can now post your turn for 1952, for the campaign or for your actions at the convention during this time! If you have any questions PM me!

[Orwell]

OOC : I apologise if this seems rude, when will the results be posted?

It's perfectly fine, tonight I just need to finish the last few paragraphs of the write up.

[Orwell]

Vice Presidential Selection and the Race for the White House

Congressman Marcus Jackson II (NTP): 3 for playing + 7 for IC actions + 1 for the wiki box, spent 2 points on election to the House (assuming he runs for reelection in 1952) so, 9 points
Congressman Gerald O'Connor (Entropy): 3 points for playing + 8 for IC actions = 11 - 1 for running for IL-7 in 1950 = 10 points
William Anderson (ForumLurker): 3 for playing + 6 for IC actions = 9 points
Will Angler (KaiserDave): 3 for playing + 7 for IC actions = 10 points
Anton Jepsen (Elcapsar): 3 for playing + 10 for IC actions = 13 points - 3 points for Arkansas Gubernatorial and Jepsen running for MN-5 = 10 points
Helen Nolan Tobin (Ishan): 3 for playing + 2 for IC actions - 2 for MA-LT GOV in 1952 with Paul Dever=3 points
Michael Feinberg (Asenath): 3 for playing + 7 for IC actions = 10 points
Michael Smith (SO19): 3 for playing = 3 points
Henry Harris (UWS): 3 for playing = 3 points
Thomas Kenway (GoTFan): 3 for playing + 8 for IC actions=11 points

Rolls
Kefauver(momentum+10, “Delegate support”+15, ): 50 + 10 + 15=75
Pepper (“Delegate support”+10): 39+10=49
Stevenson (-5 home state dissent): 24-5=19
Eisenhower campaigning: 13 (+10)=23
Kefauver campaigning: 52 (+10)=62
Warren campaigning: 73 (+1)=74
Dewey campaigning: 30 (+1)=31
Third-Party Democratic splinter(1-90 no 91-100 yes) : 24
Democratic Unity: 82
Republican Unity(+20 incumbent President): 24 +20 = 44


Player Rolls
Congressman Marcus Jackson II(NTP): 92 (+20)=112
Congressman Gerald O’Connor(Entropy): 39 (+5)=44
Will Angler (KaiserDave): 1 (+5)=6
Anton Jepsen (Elcapsar): 81(+20)=101
Helen Tobin (Ishan): 2

Democrats have their ticket!!

As the convention season draws to a close, in Chicago on August 4, 1952, the Democratic has selected their Vice Presidential nominee. But first, the balloting went as expected, but a rather notable hold out occurred with the young Representative Marcus Jackson II, brilliant oration when giving the nominating speech for Senator Pepper rallying many southerners to the side of Pepper and gaining the young congressman many fans from not just the Florida delegation, but from many in party with talk of Congressman Jackson being a possible contender to run for Governor or the Senate sometime in the future as the Congressman is in his early 30's. After his speech, he was approached by Speaker Rayburn who requested that when the house was called to session Jackson attend Rayburn's "Board of Education".

On the opposite side, however, The Democratic nominee for Minnesota's 5th Congressional district one Anton Jepson was not allowed to address the convention as a whole, but he did make a slew of valuable connections. When speaking with the Mayor of Minneapolis and Democratic nominee for Senate Hubert Horatio Humphrey who himself had run for President when speaking with Humphrey and the men of the Minnesota delegation Jepson worked many of them to the side of Senator Kefauver and was a key part in the nomination of the Senator as Vice President.

While attending to business in Montpellier, State Representative Will Angler reserved awful news. Much of his farm was flooded, his home was destroyed, and many of his crops along with it. It would be a damaging experience to the finances of the Representative, and this was faced with his likely ascension to the Senate as well.

Congressman Gerald O'Connor of Illinois worked with many pro-Kefauver delegates from Southern Illinois to attempt to persuade those supporting Governor Stevenson to abandon their pursuit and endorse Senator Kefauver. Stevenson who didn't really want to be President himself agreed generally, Stevenson agreed with O'Connor and the Pro-Kefauver delegates. O'Connor had angered some of the Chicago machines however in his push for Kefauver.

Helen Tobin was not selected to be Governor Dever's running mate, but she did keep her seat in the State legislature.

Following the convention both Eisenhower and Kefauver along with Warren and Dewey hit the campaign trail. Most of the campaign was boring, but Eisenhower made a slight gaffe in reference to Korea the campaign continued into the fall awaiting the rest of the campaign from the four main players in the campaign season and how congress will turn out.

[Orwell]

The Election of 1952: General Election

Campaign Rolls
Warren Campaign (+10): 93 + 10= 103
Dewey Campaign: 85
Eisenhower Campaign(+20, +25): 63 + 20 + 25 = 108
Kefauver Campaign (+5): 66 + 5 = 71
Democratic Turnout: 67
Republican Turnout: 18
House Turnout (D) (+10): 82 + 10 = 92
House Turnout (GOP): 39
Senate Turnout (D): 43
Senate Turnout (GOP): 20
Gubernatorial Turnout (D) (+5): 1 + 5= 6
Gubernatorial Turnout (GOP): 89
Eisenhower/Kefauver X factor: 100
Warren/Dewey X factor: 19
October Suprise (1-20 Warren/Dewey 80-100 Eisenhower/Kefauver 21-79 None):71

Player Rolls
Congressman Marcus Jackson (+15): 10 + 10 = 25
Congressman Gerald O’Connor (+20): 60 + 20 = 80
Assemblyman Will Angler (+5): 3 + 5 = 8
Thomas Kenway (+10): 100 + 10 = 110
Helen Tobin: 51
William Anderson: 40
Anton Jepson (+10): 31 + 10 = 41

Keys to the White House
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third-party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The Election Campaign: It's Ike!

Following the end of the convention season, there was a move to the general election campaigning General Eisenhower focused his campaign on the key midwestern states and many of the key northern swing states such mainly New York, Illinois, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Senator Kefauver focused on the west and many of the mountain states, by the end of September the polls looked nearly certain for a major Democratic victory in all facets of the election, but many were not prepared for how large a victory it would really be when the final votes were 473 electoral votes for Eisenhower/Kefauver to only 58 for President Warren and Vice President Dewey. The down-ballot effects for the GOP were also negative, the Senate was at 53-43 before the election but the night was a blood bath for Senate GOPers 60 Democratic Senators would be in the new Senate session compared to only 36 Republicans.

Important Flips/Holds

Ernest McFarland defeats Barry Goldwater (AZ) (D Hold)
Frank Lausche defeats Clarence Brown (OH-Special) (D Gain)
George P. Mahoney defeats James Glenn Beall (MD) (D hold)
John F. Kennedy defeats Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (MA) (D Gain)
Blair Moody defeats Charles F. Potter (MI) (D hold)
Hubert Humphrey defeats Edward J. Thye (MN) (D gain)
Stuart Symington defeats James P. Kem (MO) (D Gain)
Mike Mansfield defeats Zales N. Ecton (MT) (D gain)
Thomas B. Mechling defeats George W. Malone (NV) (D gain)
Guy Kurtz Bard defeats Edward Martin (PA) (D gain)
Henry"Scoop" Jackson defeats Harry P. Cain (WA) (D gain)

Gubernatorial elections changes from OTL

Sid McMath wins the Democratic primary in AR (D Hold)

Adlai Stevenson II wins reelection as Governor of Illinois (D Hold)

John H. Aronson defeats John W. Bonner in Montana to win reelection (D Hold)

Paul A. Dever wins reelection in Massachusetts (D Hold)





In the House, the Democrats expanded their majority by 20 seats from 248, to 268 with one of the keys flips  ID-01 being helped by the fundraising and political acumen of Congressman Marcus Jackson II from FL-3 who also easily secured reelection in both the primary and general election, but was not much more successful during the year.

In Iowa, Thomas Kenway who had spearheaded Ike's campaign in the State as a Co-Chairman of the campaign was offered the Chairmanship of the Board of Veterans Appeals. However many Democrats in the state wish to see Kenway run for the United States Senate from Iowa, with Senator Guy Gillette offering to step down in preference for Kenway in the 1954 elections.

Congressman Gerald O'Connor was able to make up some ground among the Machine politicians who had been angered by his preference for Kefauver during the 1952 Democratic Convention, and all seemed well for the Congressman, with his position in Congress secured, one day a young man named Daniel Rostenkowski came to the office of Congressman O'Connor requesting a position, Rostenkowski was the son of a well-known Polish Alderman in Chicago, Could Rostenkowski be a good ally for the young Congressman to have on his staff?

Will Angler, faced an even further setback during the election season of 1952, a fire destroyed what work he had completed on restoring his farm, and he was forced to take a small loan of $5,000 to cover the losses of the farm putting him into debt with the bank, even with the generosity of his friends. The one positive was his election to the Senate where he was unopposed, but even there he found many of the older men in the upper chamber to be cold to the younger freshman Senator.

Helen Tobin was successful in her help of Governor Devers and Representative Kennedy in their respective races for Governor and the Senate respectively.

William Anderson successfully campaigned for Warren in Texas and was elected the President of the Baylor College Republicans in their September election, signifying a takeover by the more moderate Conservatives among the group.

Anton Jepson successfully won the election in MN-5 as apart of the 20 flips for the Democrats in their landslide victories across the board, his friend Hubert Humphrey was also elected to Congress. Will he moderate on some issues to become more palatable to the general electorate or will he continue to hold as a firebrand.


Anton Jepson, Gerald O'Connor, Marcus Jackson, and Thomas Kenway were all prominently featured in Life Magazines Politics 40 under 40 with Jepson polling, 38, O'Connor at 15, Kenway 12, and Jackson at 5. The list was capped off by Massachusetts Senator-elect John F. Kennedy at number 1.

Biography.com