The New Frontier (A Different Path, Chapter 1)

[Cold War Liberal]

November 3, 1964
6:00 PM

“Direct from CBS News election headquarters in New York, this is the CBS Evening News with Walter Cronkite.”

“Good evening, from our CBS election headquarters in New York, from which we are originating this CBS Evening News program. Across this nation of ours it appears that the populous has gone to the polls in record numbers. Perhaps more than 65 million of us have trooped to our polling places today and cast our ballots for the Presidency of the United States. President Kennedy has been favored to win reelection according to recent polling, but there’s always the chance of an upset. It’s 6 PM on the East Coast, and the first polls have just closed…”

But first: how we got here.

[Cold War Liberal]

April 10, 1963
Edwin

Former Major General Edwin A. Walker finished eating dinner. It was a quiet night at his house tonight; he wasn’t married and didn’t have kids either. He didn’t invite anyone over. Besides the TV in the living room, tuned to CBS Evening News with Walter Cronkite, the only sounds were the wind in the trees and the distant sound of church bells.

After cleaning his dishes, General Walker went over to his desk. After losing the Democratic primary in last year’s race for Governor of Texas, he’d kept giving speeches in favor of segregation and state’s rights. He was becoming quite popular across the South. He had some speaking engagements coming up, so he sat at his desk like he usually did after dinner and wrote a few paragraphs about how the Antichrist Supreme Court was stealing rights away from real (read: white Southern) Americans. The usual speech. The crowds love it. Their anger at the blacks they had now had to - by law - share their drinking fountains, schools, and buses with was almost palpable when he spoke.

A racist, they called Walker. Perhaps, he thought. He did truly believe what he said, at least the jist of it, even if he exaggerated at times. Racism and anger are a powerful thing, something so powerful that I might be able to harness them into a successful bid for public office. Walker had seen the signs at his rallies, the ones that got more numerous the more he spoke: “Walker for President in ‘64!” He wasn’t sure about that. The 1964 election was just a year away. But maybe… It seems so soon... He’d give it more time. I’ll gather some political advisers together, see what they say, Walker thought. If I stand a chance, I might just jump in. That pinko Commie-loving bastard in the White House would feel the full force of the South’s fury if I ran. And there’s nothing LBJ could do to sav-

BANG.

[Cold War Liberal]

April 10, 1963
Lee

BANG.

Lee Harvey Oswald watched through the scope on his Carcano as former Major General Edwin Walker took a direct shot to the head. A single gust of wind and that bullet might have hit the window frame, Lee thought. But Lee was better than that. He’d killed the fascist pig in his own house. There were murmurs that Walker was planning on using the support from his racist, hate-mongering speeches as a platform to catapult himself into national public office - perhaps even the Presidency of the United States in 1964 or 1968. Oswald, a student of Marx, an avowed Communist, and an ambitious young man looking to make his mark on the world, was not going to let that happen.

Lee heard shouting from the church a few hundred yards from Walker’s house. They’d definitely heard the gunshot. Maybe they’d even called the police.

Lee dropped the rifle and ran towards the road. He’d taken the bus here, and would have to pass the church to get back to the bus stop. Stay calm, don’t look suspicious, he thought as he slowed to a walk as he exited the wooded area he’d shot Walker from.

Stay calm, don’t look suspicious. Stay calm, don’t look suspicious. Stay calm, don’t loo-

A tall, blonde woman, perhaps 50, ran up to him as he passed the church. “Did you hear the gunshot coming from over near that house over there?!” Lee didn’t reply.

Lee heard sirens in the distance.

“Well?” the woman asked. “We called the police as soon as we heard the shot.”

Dammit.

A man ran towards them, stopped, and pointed. “I saw him come out of the woods,” he shouted, “by General Walker's house! Maybe he’s the shooter!”

Lee cursed, shoved the woman aside, and ran. The woman, however, pulled a small pistol out of her purse (it was Texas, after all) and shot him in the leg before he could get 20 feet away. Lee fell to the ground.

An hour later, he was in prison.

A month later, he was found guilty of murder, as the Carcano was found with fingerprints matching his.

A year later, Lee Harvey Oswald was one of the last people the state of Texas executed by electric chair.

[Cold War Liberal]

Author's Note &
Answered Questions
(that I was never asked)

What is A Different Path? My first timeline, one I've been wanting to do for a while now. First, its name: "A Different Path" is simple and to the point. The OTL bullet that Oswald shot at Walker hit the window's frame; in this timeline, it takes A Different Path and hits its intended target - which sets the entire world down A Different Path.

What was the inspiration? I read 11/22/63 by Stephen King (and watched the Hulu adaptation) recently and loved it. I did, however, find King's exploration of the political ramifications of a second Kennedy Administration rather lacking (uncharacteristically of King, I think), so I'm going to flesh it out myself. No time travelling community college professors though.

What format? First, I'm going all the way to either 2021 or 2025 (not sure yet). Each President will get their own topic so this doesn't sprawl to 30 pages or whatever (kinda stole that from Camelot Anew, hope MAINEiac doesn't mind ). Not all of the posts will be POV (those take longer and frankly not all events deserve it); some will be in the style of newspaper clippings, and some will be overviews of events over a certain period of time. You'll see.

Where are you as far as writing it all? I have 1963 and most of 1964 written up, a detailed outline of what I want to happen through 1973, A looser outline through 1980, and a general idea of where I want this to go up until ~1996. The rest will fill in as I go along, but the real fun for me is that even I don't know exactly where this different path leads...

But aren't you a college student with a job? Won't this take a billion years? Well I am but I also have no social life and I enjoy politics and history way more than an 18-year-old should so this should be updated fairly regularly.

[Cold War Liberal]

November 7, 1963
Manchester Union-Leader

Rockefeller Announces Presidential Campaign, First of ‘64

New York, NY - New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller has officially announced his 1964 campaign for the Republican nomination for President of the United States. He gave a speech outside Rockefeller Center his morning, saying that while President Kennedy’s term has been “good, for the most part,” Kennedy’s programs “need more budgetary restraint, and need to be monitored for waste and fraud.” Rockefeller, a liberal Republican, is the first to announce for ‘64, ahead of even President Kennedy. Rockefeller is narrowly the frontrunner against speculative candidates such as Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, and Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton.

Rockefeller is running on expanding antipoverty programs for the poor and is touting his experience doing so in the city and state of New York. He differentiated himself from President Kennedy, who also supports the social safety net and has proposed and enacted a number of new programs through his “New Frontier,” by stating that “our state’s programs are efficient and manageable, while the federal programs are expensive and full of waste. As President, I’ll take what we did in New York nationwide!” He also lambasted the foreign policy failures of the Kennedy Administration, especially the Bay of Pigs invasion and the close call of the Cuban Missile Crisis, while simultaneously advocating for closing the "missile gap" with the Soviet Union.

President Kennedy is expected to announce his reelection bid in the coming months, and additional Republicans such as Sen. Goldwater and Gov. Scranton are expected to announce as well.

[Cold War Liberal]

December 17, 1963

KENNEDY CONSIDERING DROPPING LBJ IN ‘64; JOHNSON: “I WILL BE ON THE TICKET”

WASHINGTON, D.C.: President Kennedy is reportedly considering dropping Vice President Johnson from the 1964 Democratic ticket, sources close to the White House say. Vice President Johnson has recently been caught up in a Senate investigation into possible financial misconduct and tax evasion, as has his former Senate aide and friend, Bobby Baker. Johnson and Baker have not worked together in any official capacity since the former Texas Senator’s election to the Vice Presidency in 1960; the investigation is focusing on the two’s dealings in the 1950’s. Baker resigned from his post as Secretary to the Minority Leader in October.

The President’s only comment on the investigation is that he “trusts the Senate will do its job.” Kennedy would not comment on whether or not LBJ would be on the 1964 ticket, whether he was even considering dropping Johnson, or who he would replace the Vice President with if Johnson is not on the ticket. Lyndon Johnson took the opposite approach from President Kennedy, and held a press conference yesterday in which he stated that “you can bet your ass” that he would “definitely be on the ticket come next November.”

If Johnson is not on the ticket, it would be a blow to JFK’s reelection chances, high as they might be.


“Lyndon Johnson wanted nothing more from life than to be President of the United States, and he would do anything to achieve that goal. Perhaps ironically, that insatiable drive and the willingness to do ethically dubious things to propel himself towards that office is what ultimately kept him from ever occupying it.”

Excerpt from "The Years of Lyndon Johnson, Book Four: The Fall from Grace,” by Robert A. Caro (p. 547, published 2012)

[Cold War Liberal]

January 2, 1964
Barry

Barry Goldwater had been waiting for this for years. In 1960, Clarence Manion, conservative strategist and radio host, had entered his name into a few primaries, and tried to draft him at the convention for Vice President (and, later, President), but Barry knew 1960 was not the time. The Republicans, he felt, needed to unify behind Nixon if they were going to beat Kennedy.

And then Nixon lost.

Barry saw what few Republicans saw in their base: anger. Anger at the once-local companies they worked for being bought up by big corporations in New York or some other liberal city a few thousand miles away. Anger at corrupt unions forcing them to pay dues and then turning around and using that money for causes they didn’t support. And anger at the government, embodied by Jack Kennedy, forcing them to send their kids to the same schools as blacks. Dick Nixon probably failed to see this, and certainly failed to capitalize on it.

Barry sympathized with them, especially on corporations and unions. He was the hotshot firebrand Republican Senator from Arizona. Arizona had always prided itself on its independent streak. And while Barry wasn’t really a racist, he opposed big government, and Jack’s Civil Rights Act, which was currently being held up (indefinitely) in committee. He supported federalism, or, as southerners called it, “states’ rights.” Barry knew full well what southerners meant by that: “states’ rights” to exclude people from doing things because of their race. Barry didn’t agree with them. He also wouldn’t denounce them if they were his voters, and wasn’t above using their anger and hatred to win elected office.

Barry liked Jack Kennedy. They had become friends back in their shared days in the Senate. That’s why, when he’d called Jack last week to tell him he was announcing, he’d promised to keep the ‘64 campaign, should he win the nomination, about issues of policy rather than issues of character. Jack had agreed to do the same.

Barry walked read over his prepared remarks one last time (he had already memorized them, but another read-through wouldn’t hurt anything) and walked out onto his patio to greet the small band of reporters he’d invited there.

“...I brought you here today to announce that I, Barry M. Goldwater, will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for the Presidency of the United States in 1964. I look forward to facing Governor Rockefeller and others in the primaries, and President Kennedy in the general…”

[Cold War Liberal]

January 5, 1964

WALLACE TO SEEK ‘64 DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION; VOWS TO REINSTATE SEGREGATION, FIGHT KENNEDY CIVIL RIGHTS ACT IF ELECTED

BIRMINGHAM - Alabama Governor and avowed segregationist George C. Wallace has announced that he will seek the 1964 Democratic nomination for President of the United States, presumably taking on President John F. Kennedy. Gov. Wallace is the first Democrat to announce his candidacy. President Kennedy is universally expected to announce his reelection bid sometime in the next week or so, possibly before or even during the President’s State of the Union speech to Congress on Wednesday.

“We must stop the federal government’s march into the schools, the workplaces, and the homes of everyday Americans,” Gov. Wallace stated in his announcement speech. “As I said in my inaugural speech last year, in America, there must be ‘segregation now, segregation tomorrow, and segregation forever!’” The fiery Governor also spoke out against the President’s proposed Civil Rights Act, saying calling it “legislated equality” and something that “belongs over in the godless Soviet Union, not here in good ol’ America!”

The Governor is not expected to be a serious challenge to President Kennedy’s reelection bid, nor to his renomination at the 1964 Democratic National Convention.

[Cold War Liberal]

Thanks, y'all, for the kind words.

[Cold War Liberal]

January 8, 1964
Jack

“Mr. Vice President, Mr. Speaker, Members of the 88th Congress…”

Jack hadn’t announced his reelection bid yet, even though several members of the Republican party had - and even though arch-segregationist George Wallace had announced bid for the nomination of Jack’s own party. The gall of that man...

Everyone knew Jack would run, though. It was the worst-kept secret in Washington.

And now, he would announce it, roughly halfway through the 1964 State of the Union.

“...in the past 3 years. And we as Americans have a moral obligation to take that progress and continue it. That is why, tonight, before all my fellow Americans, I am announcing that I will run for another term as your President!"

He paused as most of Congress cheered. Jack was known for his tactful use of the new medium of television. He could have announced his reelection at any time and it would have been covered; he was the sitting President, after all. But he decided to wait just a little bit longer. The media had drummed up speculation as to why he didn’t announce shortly after Rockefeller did back in November; this played into his plan. By using the State of the Union to make his intentions clear, Jack had the eyes of tens of millions of people, tuning in to watch what might end up being their President’s last major speech. If he’d announced as candidates usually did, with a little speech reported on after it was given, he might not have the chance to immediately outline what he stood for. In a live, major televised speech like the State of the Union, he could state exactly why he was running for reelection, straight to the American people, free of any negative spin

“...and so, we must declare a war on poverty. There is no reason why the richest country in the world should still have veterans living homeless on the streets two blocks from this very building. We must fight for a comprehensive Civil Rights Act to ensure that our fellow countrymen and women who are black are treated just as well as those who are white. We must fight against those in government who seek to keep us from moving forward on issues of race, for this is an issue that only further divides America, and gives ammunition to our Communist enemies…”

That last line, pointed directly at those in the room who were currently keeping the Civil Rights Act in committee in an attempt to stifle progress, caused cheers from some who heard it - and silent anger in others.

"...cut taxes for the middle class and for businesses so that we can continue to expand our economy and bring prosperity to all Americans, whether they be white or black, man or woman, young or old, native-born or recent immigrant, Protestant or Catholic or any other religion. We will win the Space Race against the Soviet Union and put a man on the moon before the end of the 1960’s. And we will continue our long and hard fought battle against Communism abroad, though we will not send our boys into fruitless, unwinnable wars in far off jungles…”

Vietnam was bound to be a big issue in the election of 1964. Jack prayed that it would work out in the end. McNamara was still convinced that escalating could lead to a decisive, quick American victory, but each time he suggested it, one thought nagged in the back of Jack’s head: at what cost? Jack wasn’t about to just pull out of Vietnam, as surely the entire country, including the South, would swiftly fall under Communist control, followed by other Asian nations. That would be a disaster, not only for Asia but for the Kennedy Administration's public image as well. Jack remained hopeful that it wouldn’t come to war, that there were still diplomatic solutions.

“...and so, to reiterate what I said earlier, the State of the Union is good. However, we Americans have never been content to just be good. America has always been the nation of the exceptional, and that is what we must continue to strive to be: always improving…”

Jack wrapped up the speech to thunderous applause from everyone except several of the members of Congress representing the South, who merely applauded politely and without vigor. As he locked eyes with them, he knew that they would be the biggest threat to achieving what he outlined in the speech. He just hoped that he had the will, the patience, the charisma, and the political cunning to overcome them.

Jack also turned around and looked at his Vice President, Lyndon B. Johnson. He worried Jack too. The Congressional investigation into Bobby Baker and LBJ’s financial dealings in the ‘50’s was requesting new records from Johnson all the time. Baker was close to being indicted, and it was possible, the White House Special Council advised Jack, that they could be close to taking down Lyndon as well. If that happened, Jack would ask for LBJ’s resignation immediately. Then he’d have to find a running mate, and consider pardoning Johnson, and fend off attacks from Goldwater, and…

Jack didn’t want to think about any of that right now. Tonight, he’d just given a great speech to a nation that loved him. He relished in the moment.

[Cold War Liberal]

I'm taking a little while to touch up the next few posts so here's a short little piece of pop culture I'm throwing in for fun.

February 8, 1964

The Beatles Invade, Complete With Long Hair and Screaming Fans

by Paul Gardner

Multiply Elvis Presley by four, subtract six years from his age, add British accents and a sharp sense of humor. The answer: It’s the Beatles (yeah, yeah, yeah).

The rock ‘n’ roll group, which may become Britain's most successful export since the bowler, arrived at New York International Airport yesterday and more than 3,000 teen-agers stood four deep on the upper arcade at the International Arrivals Building to greet them.

The musical act will be received at the White House tomorrow, when they will meet with President Kennedy in what is sure to be a remarkable meeting between cultural icons.

Continued on Page 49, Column 4

[Cold War Liberal]

February 14, 1964
Karl

Sen. Karl E. Mundt (R-SD) was ready to go home.

He had been assigned to lead the select Senate committee that had been created to investigate Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson’s financial dealings in the 1950’s. The committee had been working for months and hadn’t found much of anything, at least not anything necessarily illegal. Johnson sure knew how to cover his tracks if there was any “there” there.

Bobby Baker, on the other hand, didn't do a very good job hiding his dealings; the investigation into his finances was quite conclusive. He'd resigned from his position as Secretary to the Minority Leader last October, and further developments in the investigation meant that he was about to be indicted for tax fraud and tax evasion, though he didn't know it yet. But just because a friend of LBJ's did something illegal didn't mean that the Vice President himself did something wrong too, Karl thought.

It was getting late, and Karl was ready to go back to South Dakota for the weekend, before inevitably coming back to work to do even more fruitless searching on Monday. The committee was wrapping up its questioning of the umpteenth witness the committee had subpoenaed - some former aide to Johnson from his Senate years - and it yielded nothing, just like the other questionings.

As Karl left the room and started to make his way to his office to lock everything up for the weekend, an aide of his rushed up to him and shoved a manila envelope into his hands. Karl opened it up and skimmed some of the papers on the inside, and a feeling of shock and excitement overcame him.

“This is huge,” the aide said. Karl concurred.

[Cold War Liberal]

February 17, 1964
Lyndon

Lyndon Johnson was really f---ed now.

The New York Times had ran the headline on the first page this morning:

V.P. JOHNSON COMMITTED TAX FRAUD IN 1950’s, SAY CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATORS

The President, who rarely even called Lyndon, much less meet with him in person, barged into the Naval Observatory unannounced and uninvited that morning. “You’ve really f---ed it all up this time, Lyndon!” Jack had screamed. “You told me there was no crime!” Lyndon, always the fighter, considered retaliating, but he decided that a shouting match with the President of the United States, when Lyndon was clearly in the wrong, wasn't worth it. Uncharacteristically, he just sat there for a few minutes while the President ranted. “We just got a victory with the 24th Amendment, then this happens?! I've had it with you, Lyndon. You've done nothing but cause problems for my administration.” When Jack calmed down a bit, Lyndon told the President that he’d offer to resign if that’s what he wanted. The President said that it was - and that it had to be public, this evening, in a prime time speech before America.

Lyndon sighed, then agreed. He’d suspected this revelation might have been coming. All he, a formerly poor Texas boy, had ever wanted was to sit in the Oval Office and truly make his mark on the world. He wanted to be remembered the way that Washington or Lincoln or the Roosevelts were remembered. And, perhaps ironically, in his quest for that seemingly ultimate power, he’d done some things - like evade taxes, and, possibly unbeknownst to the Senate, accept bribes - which would ultimately prevent him from ever achieving his lifelong goal.

I really, really, really f---ed this all up, didn’t I?




“...made many mistakes; therefore, I will resign the Vice Presidency. My resignation will go into effect at noon tomorrow, at which point the office will be vacant until it is filled next January by the outcome of the upcoming…”

[Cold War Liberal]

Democratic VP Shortlist
Adapted from TIME Magazine’s Special Issue, March 1, 1964

Terry Sanford

Age: 46
Home State: North Carolina
Current Office: Governor (since 1961)
Bio: The charismatic, liberal Governor Sanford is said to be on the very top of President Kennedy’s shortlist to replace Lyndon Johnson.

Hubert Humphrey

Age: 52
Home State: Minnesota
Current Office: Senator (since 1949)
Bio: Senator Humphrey is relatively young, very experienced, and has civil rights credentials. In an election where civil rights is a focus, this could come in handy, and could help if he is eventually elected Vice President and is recruited to help pass the currently stalled legislation.
Stuart Symington

Age: 63
Home State: Missouri
Current Office: Senator (since 1953)
Bio: Experienced, intelligent, and a stickler for civil rights, Senator Symington is sure to be high on the list of names President Kennedy considers to replace Vice President Johnson, especially since he’s rumored to have been JFK’s runner-up for the job in 1960
Pat Brown

Age: 58
Home State: California
Current Office: Governor (since 1959)
Bio: Solidly liberal, popular, and with a record of getting things done in his home state of California, Governor Brown could be just who President Kennedy wants as a companion to pass his undoubtedly crowded second-term legislative agenda. But will Brown want to give up the governorship?
George Smathers

Age: 50
Home State: Florida
Current Office: Senator (since 1951)
Bio: Senator Smathers has been a personal friend of President Kennedy for a long time, but he is also a moderate who is not pro-civil rights, at a time when the Kennedy Administration is focusing on that very issue.
Eugene McCarthy

Age: 47
Home State: Minnesota
Current Office: Senator (since 1959)
Bio: The other Senator from Minnesota, McCarthy is a strong advocate for civil rights, though he holds uncharacteristically right-wing positions on immigration, which might hurt his chances at the VP slot.
John Reynolds, Jr.

Age: 42
Home State: Wisconsin
Current Office: Governor (since 1963)
Bio: Though inexperienced, Governor Reynolds could solidify support for the President among working-class northerners, especially if Goldwater is the Republican nominee and does well in the South.
Daniel Brewster

Age: 40
Home State: Maryland
Current Office: Senator (since 1963)
Bio: Senator Brewster is very pro-civil rights, but is also very young, inexperienced, and virtually unknown outside of Maryland. Maryland is somewhat Southern, however, so Brewster could be helpful in courting Senators from that region to vote for the Civil Rights Act.
Robert F. Kennedy

Age: 38
Home State: Washington, D.C. (also has residences in Massachusetts and New York)
Current Office: Attorney General of the United States (since 1961)
Bio: While he is a wildcard, there are rumors that President Kennedy is considering his own brother, Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, as Lyndon Johnson’s replacement on the ticket. His record on civil rights would most likely be drowned out by his youth, inexperience, and relationship with the President; thus, “Kennedy/Kennedy ‘64” would be a risky move.

[Cold War Liberal]

November 7, 1963 - March 10, 1964
The Road to New Hampshire

When it came to choosing party nominees, 1964 was still a time when the will of the people took something of a backseat to political wheeling and dealing with party delegates. Primaries were important, yes, especially when candidates were trying to prove their electability; but even if one candidate won every single pledged delegate, they would still not have enough to win the nomination of either party on the first ballot. The political maneuvering in anticipation of convention battles began well in advance of the start of the 1964 campaign; Barry Goldwater been quietly laying the groundwork for a primary campaign since 1958, and Rockefeller had probably been preparing for far longer than that. John F. Kennedy's position as a popular President of the United States, obviously, means that he was essentially guaranteed renomination.

The first primary on both sides was held in New Hampshire. On the Republican side, the road to New Hampshire was not incredibly eventful. Rockefeller and Goldwater had laid the groundwork for a campaign there throughout 1963, and one of them was expected to win. However, In January, a write-in campaign for U.S. Ambassador to South Vietnam and 1960 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. began; Lodge was pitched as a moderate candidate in contrast to Rockefeller’s liberalism and Goldwater’s conservatism. Hailing from Massachusetts, he had the advantage of being from a nearby state, and while he did not actively campaign, he held his own against Rockefeller and Goldwater in polls.

Moderate Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton announced his campaign in mid-January, followed by lesser-known candidates like Hawaii Senator Hiram Fong, Maine Senator Margaret Chase Smith, Ohio Governor James Rhodes, Representative John W. Byrnes (WI-08), and former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen. Scranton was the only candidate polling high enough to get within striking distance of the Big Two nationally, but suffered among party delegates because Scranton was not significantly different ideologically from Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., or even Nelson Rockefeller. Senator Smith was a woman, running for President of the United States. That was an idea so laughable to some folks that it made her campaign a non-starter. The rest were no name favorite son candidates, each hoping to be able to play kingmaker at a contested convention and maybe get the Vice Presidential nomination, if they were lucky.

Nelson Rockefeller threw himself into campaigning in New Hampshire, but so did Barry Goldwater. Rockefeller's moderate liberalism was a much, much better fit for the Granite State than Goldwater's fairly radical conservatism. In response to this, Goldwater moderated his stances on programs like Social Security, which the moderate Republicans of New Hampshire did not want to see dismantled to the extent that Goldwater had previously stated it should be. Rockefeller emphasized his record in New York on things like social programs and infrastructure projects. Scranton did not make a major push to win New Hampshire, as he was trailing the Big Two and Lodge significantly, and was not on the ballot. As election day drew nearer, Goldwater, Lodge, and Rockefeller were essentially tied. Some thought that Lodge and Rockefeller would split the moderate and liberal vote and lead to a Goldwater victory, which, while largely symbolic, would allow the Arizona conservative to tout his perceived electability in states that are typically averse to those who are in that wing of the party.

The Democratic side was uneventful - literally. President Kennedy did not actively campaign there, as he was the only one on the ballot. George Wallace, only valid as a write-in, spoke there once or twice, but mainly spent his time trying (with little success) to get the Southern DNC delegations to support him over the incumbent.

Republican New Hampshire Primary Results, 1964
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 34.9%
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 32.1%
Barry M. Goldwater: 28.2%
Margaret C. Smith: 2.4%
William Scranton: 1.3%
Others: 1.1%
(Italics = write-in)

Democratic New Hampshire Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 95.9%
George C. Wallace: 3.9%
Others: 0.2%
(Italics = write-in)

[Cold War Liberal]

Author's Note
On Delegates

I'm not doing delegate counts for each primary right now since the whole delegate system was weird and confusing before McGovern-Frasier. In later chapters (probably from '72 on, we'll see how McGovern-Frasier or something like it plays out, if it does) I'll calculate pledged delegates, but for now, I'll do rough estimations based on combining the number of delegates pledged to each candidate + how many they've convinced to vote for them at the convention. This is easier for me and also has the side effect of being more entertaining to read since you, the reader, won't know exactly how the convention delegates will vote until they do it.

[Cold War Liberal]

March 10 - April 28, 1964
Northeast Primaries

The results out of New Hampshire were slightly surprising, as the race between Rockefeller, Lodge, and Goldwater had been something of a dead heat in a poll put out right before the primary, and yet Rockefeller beat Lodge by 2 points, and, in a blow to the conservative movement in the Republican Party, beat Goldwater by 7 points.

There were four weeks until the next primary, in Wisconsin, and candidates spent it courting delegations from states where primaries were not going to be held, as Rep. Byrnes was the only candidate on the ballot in that primary. Out of 1,308 delegates in total, roughly 250 were in Goldwater’s column, 175 in Rockefeller’s, and 70 in Scranton’s, with a few being split among the other candidates and the rest being undecided.

President Kennedy, being the President of the United States, figured he didn't need to campaign in any primaries at all. George Wallace saw this as a weakness, and decided to aggressively contest the Wisconsin primary. He was actually on the ballot, not just as a write-in. Wisconsin was very white and very blue collar, which was exactly the type of people Wallace appealed to. So, he amped up his economic message, toned down the racial dog whistles (but just a little), and cris-crossed the state over the course of the month of March, meeting with tens of thousands of Wisconsinites.

Republican Wisconsin Primary Results, 1964
John W. Byrnes: 99.73%
Others: 0.27%
(Italics = write-in)

Democratic Wisconsin Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 79.27%
George C. Wallace: 20.55%
Others: 0.18%
(Italics = write-ins)

The big bombshell was Wallace winning more than 20% of the vote in the Wisconsin primary. This caused a minor panic in the Kennedy campaign, as it showed that Wallace had a much stronger appeal among the white, blue collar workers in the Manufacturing Belt than previously anticipated. In response, Kennedy started to actively campaign for the upcoming Illinois primary, which was also very blue collar, where Wallace was also on the ballot, and which Wallace was actively campaigning to win.

President Kennedy campaigning in Chicago, April 11, 1964

As for the Republicans, Barry Goldwater and Maine Senator Margaret Chase Smith were the only two candidates who were actually on the ballot in Illinois. Goldwater campaigned in the rural areas and the manufacturing towns, while Smith mostly campaigned in Chicago, and decried Goldwater's conservatism, which she called "dangerous extremism." Goldwater believed that the simple fact that Smith was a woman would make it impossible for her to come within 20 points of him - a belief backed up by most polls.

Republican Illinois Primary Results, 1964
Barry M. Goldwater: 51.97%
Margaret C. Smith: 42.98%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 2.67%
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 2.06%
William Scranton: 0.22%
Others: 0.10%
(Italics = write-in)


Democratic Illinois Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 91.01%
George C. Wallace: 8.34%
Others: 0.65%
(Italics = write-in)

Goldwater “won” Illinois, but did much worse than expected. He polled at well over 20 points ahead of Smith prior to the primary, but didn’t even beat her by 10. Was a major boon to the Rockefeller campaign, as it called into question Goldwater's electability.

On April 16, President Kennedy made a prime time televised speech on the Civil Rights Act, which was still being held up in the House Rules Committee by segregationist Rep. Howard Smith (D-VA). In the speech, he appealed to the “moral imperative we as Americans have to protect the most vulnerable among us, and to ensure everyone has the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Governors Rockefeller and Scranton both applauded the President and reaffirmed support for civil rights legislation. In contrast, Senator Goldwater condemned the President pushing for “massive federal overreach and meddling the lives of millions of Americans,” and Governor Wallace made remarks that future historians refer to as “not suitable for repeating in polite company.”

The last three primaries of April, in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania, were uneventful and mostly won by favorite sons.

Republican New Jersey Primary Results, 1964
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 32.71%
Barry M. Goldwater: 31.52%
Nelson Rockefeller: 29.12%
Margaret C. Smith: 3.34%
William Scranton: 3.31%
(Italics = write-in)

Democratic New Jersey Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 96.32%
George C. Wallace: 3.68%
(Italics = write-in)

Republican Massachusetts Primary Results, 1964
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 76.85%
Nelson Rockefeller: 11.21%
Barry M. Goldwater: 8.33%
William Scranton: 1.86%
Margaret C. Smith: 1.47%
Others: 0.28%
(Italics = write-in)

Democratic Massachusetts Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 99.01%
George C. Wallace: 0.86%
Others: 0.13%
(Italics = write-in)

Republican Pennsylvania Primary Results, 1964
William Scranton: 51.94%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 21.80%
Barry Goldwater: 13.54%
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 10.47%
Margaret C. Smith:  2.01%
Others: 0.24%
(Italics = write-in)

Democratic Pennsylvania Primary Results, 1964
John F. Kennedy: 94.57%
George C. Wallace: 4.48%
Others: 0.95%
(Italics = write-in)

[Cold War Liberal]

May 1, 1964
Gallup Poll

President Kennedy Approval Rating
Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 35%
No opinion: 7%
Didn’t answer: 1%


Primary Polls
(Democrats only) Who should be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 1964?
President Kennedy: 94%
Governor Wallace: 4%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 1%

(Republicans only) Who should be the Republican Presidential nominee in 1964?
Barry M. Goldwater: 42%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 42%
William Scranton: 6%
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 5%
Margaret C. Smith: 1%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 2%


General Election Polls
Kennedy vs. Goldwater
John F. Kennedy: 47%
Barry M. Goldwater: 36%
Undecided: 17%

Kennedy vs. Rockefeller
John F. Kennedy: 44%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 40%
Undecided: 16%

Kennedy vs. Scranton
John F. Kennedy: 44%
William Scranton: 39%
Undecided: 15%

Wallace vs. Goldwater
George C. Wallace: 36%
Barry M. Goldwater: 36%
Undecided: 28%

Wallace vs. Rockefeller
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 49%
George C. Wallace: 35%
Undecided: 16%

Wallace vs. Scranton
William Scranton: 47%
George C. Wallace: 36%
Undecided: 17%

[Cold War Liberal]

I feel like a POTUS at 67% would poll higher, but good update!

Oops, that was meant to be 57%.

I will note, JFK was polling at around 60% approval before he died but was apparently concerned about a relatively (compared to how '64 actually panned out) tight race with Goldwater. There was a lot less polarization (Rick Pearlstein, and probably other people too, called this the "American Consensus") back then. For instance, I assume a lot of northern Rockefeller Republicans supported Kennedy personally but would vote for Rocky if he were nominated

[Cold War Liberal]

May 2, 1964
Nelson

“...an area where President Kennedy and I agree is that the pursuit of civil rights for all Americans is a just, noble, and moral cause...”

Governor Nelson Rockefeller really, really enjoyed campaigning, which was what he was doing here in Fremont, California. Nelson also loved winning, which was not something he’d done much of thus far in the primaries. Goldwater was winning basically all of the conservative vote, while Nelson had to split it among that Pennsylvania Governor… Bill Scatron, he thought it was? Whatever, he was never good with names. He also had to split it with the unofficially official write-in campaign of Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., which annoyed Rockefeller. If you’re gonna run for the nomination, be a man and declare your candidacy like a normal person, Nelson thought.

“...did you all see that poll from Gallup yesterday? Probably not, that’s boring stuff for political wonks like me, but it had me up as the most competitive against President Kennedy in November. And you know who was dead last? Barry Morris Goldwater, that’s who. Keep that in mind when you go to the polls on June the second. Vote for me, and vote for victory!”

Nelson waved to the crowd as they cheered, then walked off the stage to greet the cheering mass of potential voters. After the short hand-shaking-and-baby-kissing routine of a Presidential candidate, Nelson was ushered off to a limo, where a major GOP party figure and RNC delegate awaited.

“Hiya, Dick,” Nelson said after getting in the vehicle. “Hello, Nelson,” said the former Vice President of the United States, who was already inside. Several candidates had been vying for the endorsement of Richard M. Nixon, Republican party standard-bearer and an ex-candidate on an apparent losing streak. “Let’s get to the point, Nelson; out of the candidates we have now, or at least the declared ones, you’re the best. Goldwater’s a crazy Jew, Scranton’s a lightweight, and I’m certainly not going to vote for that woman from Maine. Henry would be the only one that’d make me reconsider, but he’s still being coy about whether or not he would even accept the nomination if it were given to him, which it almost certainly will not be. He probably just wants to be kingmaker if the nomination isn’t settled on the first ballot…”

Nelson let Dick monologue for a bit, then interjected with his own two cents, followed by a question. “It’s great that you’ll cast your ballot for me, even if you’ll wait until the convention to endorse me. But Dick, I know you still want to be President. Why didn’t you run this year?”

Nixon paused. “If I thought I stood a chance, I would have. But a rematch of 1960 is not what should go down this year, especially since I lost in 1960, lost here in California in 1962, and would probably lose again in 1964. I’d be politically dead, in my early 50’s. I couldn’t deal with that, Nelson. The time for me is not now.”

“I see. Well, I wish you the best of luck.” “And I wish you good luck as well.” Nixon got out of the limo and got into his own, adjacent car.

When the driver got back to Rockefeller’s California campaign headquarters, one of the high-up campaign staffers rushed up to Nelson. The Governor gave him his signature greeting for people whose names he couldn’t immediately remember - “hiya, fella’ - and asked him what all the rush was about. “It’s your wife, sir. She’s gone into labor.”

Happy isn’t due for, like, another month, Nelson though. I hope her and the baby’ll be OK… I have to get back to New York…

Nelson immediately got back in his car, had the driver take him to Oakland International, where his charter plane was. He went back to New York to be with his wife as she gave birth to their first son (together), Nelson Rockefeller, Jr.


“...the birth of Nelson Rockefeller, Jr., in the early hours of May 3, 1964 refocused attention on the unique - and, according to the cultural conservatives so galvanized by Goldwater, immoral - marriage of Nelson and Happy Rockefeller; both of them had divorced their previous spouses and immediately married each other (neither of them were particularly known for their ability to be subtle). The voters had mostly forgotten about the issue by then; the Rockefeller campaign hoped and prayed that they would forget again, before the June 2 California primary. Of course, as any student of 1960’s political history knows, the Republicans in California voted for…"

Excerpt from “On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller,” by Richard Norton Smith (p. 485, published 2014)

[Cold War Liberal]

Thank you for the nice comments.

Update incoming.

[Cold War Liberal]

May 2, 1964
Barry

Barry was starting to get a little nervous. He wasn’t performing quite as well as he had expected to, considering that he had been a much-beloved figure in conservative Republican circles for nearly a decade, and had been preparing to run in 1964 since the day after Nixon lost. He was still winning primaries, and was (narrowly) ahead of Rocky in the projected delegate count for the RNC’s first round, but hundreds of delegates were still unpledged, and no one was close to a majority. If this goes to the second ballot, Maggie and Bill’s delegates might bolt to Rocky and put him over the top… Barry knew he almost certainly had to get a majority of the delegates, on the first ballot, if he wanted the nomination, or at the very least if he wanted to avoid a massive party fight that would divide the Republicans and lead to a Kennedy landslide in November.

Not that a Kennedy landslide was any less plausible, even if Barry won on the first ballot; that Gallup poll from the other day had rattled Barry a bit. I’m trailing by 11 points, Barry thought. At least Jack’s also below 50%, which means I theoretically have a shot even if his support doesn’t drop… I can cross that bridge when I get there, I’ve got to lock up the nomination first.

Barry watched as the results from the Texas primary streamed in. He was certainly going to win, which gave him some comfort. But a win in solid conservative territory wasn’t comforting; Barry needed to win in California to cement his place as the best candidate to go against Jack in November.

Republican Texas Primary, 1964
Barry M. Goldwater: 69.89%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 13.06%
Henry C. Lodge, Jr.: 8.85%
Harold Stassen: 3.79%
Margaret C. Smith: 3.46%
William Scranton: 0.58%
Others: 0.37%
(Italics = write-in)

[Cold War Liberal]

May 26, 1964
George

“Thank you Florida! Tonight, you showed the Kennedy Establishment what Dixie can do! We’re gonna fight for us real Americans all the way to the convention. We’re gonna fight to cut our taxes, fight the Soviets, and fight to keep the white man separate from the nig…”

George Wallace was quite happy with his current position. He wasn’t going to win the Democratic nomination, though he wasn’t going to say that. Not that he wanted to win. This entire thing had been a stunt to increase his national profile so he'd be in a better position for a future, more serous run. And not that he didn't have any supporters among the DNC delegates; Wallace did have the support of the delegations from Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, and, thanks to tonight’s win, Florida.

Democratic Florida Primary, 1964
George C. Wallace: 50.47%
John F. Kennedy: 48.54%
Others: 0.99%
(Italics = write-in)

The Florida win wouldn’t be enough to unseat the popular President Kennedy, obviously. Even his most ardent supporters didn't believe that. Hell, he didn’t even win by as much as he’d expected to. Florida’s demographics were supposed to be pretty similar to those in Wallace’s base, plus he was Governor of a neighboring state, which was supposed to give him an advantage. And yet he didn’t even beat the President by two whole points.

Conservatism was not having as good a year as it should have. Wallace wasn’t going to win the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Goldwater had recently won Indiana, Nebraska, and now Florida, but Rockefeller had taken West Virginia, Maryland (narrowly), and Oregon (Ohio went to a favorite son, James Rhodes). Goldwater and Rockefeller were each at around 450 delegates (pledged and unpledged; 655 were needed for a majority), while Scranton, Lodge, and Smith (both moderates) had about 175 between them. Roughly 30 delegates went to assorted favorite sons, and 173 were still undecided or unpledged. 86 of those were at stake in next week’s California primary, and Rockefeller was very slightly ahead in the polls.

Rockefeller’s strategy in California was to campaign heavily in San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and other urban, more liberal areas. He was also exceptionally strong among black voters, and made sure to emphasize his support for the Civil Rights Act while stopping in certain areas of California cities. Barry Goldwater, on the other hand, had spent the past month traipsing across the eastern half of the state and other more rural areas, while simultaneously making inroads in suburbs. Wallace wasn’t sure it would be enough, especially if Goldwater was blown out in the cities, but he was open to being pleasantly surprised.

What if Rockefeller wins the nomination, Wallace wondered? Clarence Manion, the mildly popular conservative radio host and friend of Barry Goldwater, had started his own “American Conservative Party” back in March, as a sort of insurance policy against there being no conservative on the ballot in November. He had ballot access in every state. Problem was: he didn’t have a real candidate in any of them. He’d simply entered Arkansas Governor Orval Faubus’s name on the ballots; though, like in 1960, Faubus showed no intention of actually running for the office. It was a shame too, since it was very possible that the election would come down to two pinkos: Jack and Rocky.

Wallace sure as hell wouldn’t be Manion’s candidate. He’d just taken office last year. He was only really running in ‘64 because he wanted to raise his national profile, and besides, he knew he couldn’t beat Jack. Goldwater, if he lost, was probably too much of a party man to do what was needed to preserve his ideology. Faubus had had his heyday back in ‘57, during the so-called “Little Rock Crisis,” and probably wouldn’t actively campaign. He was a has-been, when conservatives needed a fresh face.

It was still entirely conceivable that Goldwater could still win on the first ballot, especially if he won in California. The whole issue of Rockefeller's marriage had flared up again following the public attention surrounding Nelson, Jr.’s birth, which had hurt Rocky, and more than just a little. Goldwater could use that, though it had mostly subsided by now. Even if he lost, there were still paths to a delegate majority. But if not…

Who’ll carry the conservative mantel in 1964?

[Cold War Liberal]

June 2, 1964
Hillary

"I, Hillary Diane Rodham, do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

The crowd cheered upon witnessing the inauguration of the first female President of the United St-

Hillary woke up from her dream. She was on the couch at her parent’s house, having decided to take a nap after school. Her dream would someday come true, she was sure; just not now. She was 16, for goodness sakes.

Hillary looked at the clock. She’d overslept; CBS was about to start reporting results out of the California primary in a few minutes. She ran into the kitchen, quickly made a sandwich, and ran back into the living room to watch Cronkite. While she could not yet vote, she was totally a Goldwater Girl. She liked his independent spirit and rugged Arizona charm. Nelson was fine, she guessed, and Jack wasn’t all that bad, but Goldwater was truly the kind of respectable man who belonged in the White House, with good ideas to boot.

Cronkite’s signature voice announced that, with less than 1% of the vote in, it was a dead heat. Hillary had a feeling that would remain the case until much later in the evening. As she listened absentmindedly to the television, her thoughts drifted to how she hoped to one day run for President herself. She wanted to make a difference in this world, to shake up the boy’s club of politics and implement programs that would lead to a better America for all people. That was one reason she admired Maggie Smith, even if she would have prefered Goldwater, and even if Smith didn’t actually stand a chance of being nominated. Maggie had blazed a trail that she was told wasn’t worth creating, and was going to pass its creation on to some other woman. If she didn’t make it, then she’d pass it on to someone else, and so on, until one day, America elected its first female President, Hillary Diane Rodham. Or so Hillary hoped.

She stopped daydreaming and listened to Walter. “...with 15% in, Goldwater has taken a very narrow lead. Rural voters seem to be out in full force in this…”

[Cold War Liberal]

June 2, 1964
Barry

“...with 57% reporting, Senator Goldwater has regained the lead he has lost and regained multiple times tonight. Turnout for Governor Rockefeller is very good in the cities tonight, but…”

Sh*t. This is a close one. Barry was afraid. Very afraid. His base of rural and suburban voters had come out very strong for him tonight. However, Rocky was really running up the margin in LA and Frisco, areas that didn’t like Barry much at all. There were a ton of votes left in those highly populated cities, while most of the rural areas had already reported a majority of their votes.

Barry’s speechwriter approached him and gave him two speeches. One was a victory speech; it was happy and optimistic about the win and the upcoming convention fight. The other, obviously, was a concession speech vowing to continue the fight at the Cow Palace, where the RNC was being held this year.

Goldwater read them both over as his lead got smaller and smaller. He had a sinking feeling that he wouldn’t be reading the former.